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Predictions graded

Thiago Moura Monteiro #276Brazil2Max Hans Rehberg #332Germany1

Sets 6-7 · 6-3 · 7-6Tue 8 Sept 2026, 13:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Moura Monteiro · 56 places

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Brazil

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

Rehberg reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 230 on 31 March 2025. He is a German right-hander from Munich; the available player-profile source lists hard courts as his strongest career surface.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Monteiro holds a moderate edge over Rehberg due to stronger recent clay form and vastly more experience.

The best betting value is on Monteiro to win at odds of 1.85, with a 7.9-point edge over the model's fair odds. Expect a competitive match with total games likely exceeding 21.5.

Context

Monteiro, 32, is a left-hander from Brazil who has spent most of his career on clay and reached a career-high ranking of No. 61 in 2022.
Monteiro's recent clay results are slightly better than Rehberg's, and his wins include victories over players ranked inside the top 130. Rehberg has also been competitive, but his losses have come against lower-ranked opponents, suggesting Monteiro may have a small edge in this matchup.
- Monteiro is 10-5 in his last 15 matches on clay, with wins over Andrea Pellegrino (No. 129) and David Jorda Sanchis (No. 192).
- Rehberg is 8-7 in his last 15 matches on clay, with losses to Facundo Mena (No. 306) and Filip Cristian Jianu (No. 269).
Rehberg, 23, is a right-hander from Germany who has a solid all-court game and has been improving on clay.
Rehberg's second-serve effectiveness is a notable advantage, as it allows him to stay in points even when his first serve is not landing. Monteiro's lower second-serve win rate could be targeted by Rehberg's return game, which has been solid at 37.9% return points won.
- Rehberg's second-serve points won: 56% (186/332) in last 15 matches.
- Monteiro's second-serve points won: 51.1% (205/401) in last 15 matches.
Monteiro's left-handed serve and forehand can create angles that trouble right-handed opponents.
Monteiro's return numbers are marginally better, and he has converted 44.3% of break points compared to Rehberg's 42.1%. This could be decisive in a match where both players are likely to hold serve often.
- Monteiro's return points won: 39% (401/1028) in last 15 matches.
- Rehberg's return points won: 37.9% (392/1035) in last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Monteiro's stronger recent clay form and deeper clay experience give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Monteiro last 15 on clay: 10-5 record, 55.7% games won, 52.7% total points won
- Rehberg last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 53.3% games won, 51.6% total points won
- Monteiro career clay win% 57 with 464 wins; Rehberg career clay win% 57 with 72 wins
- Monteiro ranking 280 vs Rehberg 320
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, suggesting a competitive Bo3 with total games exceeding 21.5.
- Monteiro last 15 average duration 110.4 minutes
- Rehberg last 15 average duration 107.8 minutes
- Monteiro last 15 games per match average 23.0 (345/15)
- Rehberg last 15 games per match average 22.4 (336/15)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average near 9.5 games, making over 9.5 slightly more likely.
- Monteiro last 15 first set average games 9.6 (144/15)
- Rehberg last 15 first set average games 9.5 (133/14)
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's slight edge in games won suggests he could cover a -2.5 game handicap, but the margin is narrow.
- Monteiro last 15 games won 55.7%
- Rehberg last 15 games won 53.3%
- Monteiro average games won per match 12.8 vs Rehberg 11.9
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostThiago Moura Monteiro -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's slightly better recent serve effectiveness supports a first-set edge, though Rehberg's high first-set conversion keeps confidence low.
- Monteiro first set win conversion career 81%
- Rehberg first set win conversion career 85%
- Monteiro last 15 first serve points won 74.6% vs Rehberg 71.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2.5 double faults per match, making under 4.5 likely.
- Monteiro last 15 double faults per match 2.3
- Rehberg last 15 double faults per match 1.6
- Combined average double faults per match 3.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are close to 7.5, and a longer match could push the total over.
- Monteiro last 15 aces per match 4.5
- Rehberg last 15 aces per match 2.8
- Combined average aces per match 7.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Thiago Moura Monteiro

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#128Gustavo Heide 6-1 4-6 6-2#432Mika Petkovic 6-4 6-2#217Kimmer Coppejans

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#145Tom Gentzsch

6-2 6-4#374Tommaso Compagnucci

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#476Ivan Gakhov

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#121Vilius Gaubas

6-3 6-2#129Andrea Pellegrino

7-5 7-5#192David Jorda Sanchis

6-1 6-4#751Manuel Mazza

6-2 6-1—Alberto Bronzetti

7-6(4) 6-3#276Philip Henning

6-3 4-6 7-5#301Petr Nesterov

6-4 6-4—Flynn Thomas

3-6 6-3 6-4#413Dylan Dietrich

Max Hans Rehberg

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#306Facundo Mena

6-3 6-4#269Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-1#217Kimmer Coppejans

5-3 ret.#732Jakub Nicod

6-1 5-7 7-5#578Saba Purtseladze

6-1 6-4#190Diego Dedura

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4)#335Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-1#147Stefano Travaglia

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#256Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#327Anton Matusevich

6-3 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-3#523Alexander Donski

6-3 6-4#231Guido Ivan Justo

2-6 7-5 6-4#76Jan Choinski

6-4 6-4#200Moise Kouame

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TMThiago Moura MonteiroMonteiro

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Max Hans RehbergRehbergMR

Thiago Moura Monteiro carries the stronger recent form — Max Hans Rehberg's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.8%+3.0pp65.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.6%+3.1pp71.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.1%+4.9pp56.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.5+1.72.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.30.7 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.0%+1.1pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.3%+2.2pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1565.3%+1.5pp63.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.7%+1.1pp51.6%

Serve · 2–3

62.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp65.8%

74.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.1pp71.5%

51.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.9pp56.0%

4.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.72.8

2.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

39.0%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.1pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

44.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp42.1%

65.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+1.5pp63.8%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.1pp51.6%