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Predictions graded

Thiago Moura Monteiro #276Brazil2Kimmer Coppejans #218Belgium0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Mon 31 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKimmer Coppejans · 58 places

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Brazil

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Kimmer Coppejans

Belgium

Belgian player, born 7 February 1994. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-best singles ranking was No. 97 in June 2015.

Current ranking: #218
Peak ranking: #97 · 2015
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 15:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Monteiro is a slight favorite based on recent clay form and latest H2H win, but Coppejans' superior clay metrics and 3-0 H2H record on the surface make this a close match.

The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games, with Monteiro 2-1 also offering value.

Context

Monteiro, 32, is a left-handed Brazilian clay specialist ranked 275. Coppejans, 32, is a right-handed Belgian ranked 216.
Monteiro's recent clay form is more consistent: he has won 10 of his last 15 matches, all on clay, with a 66.7% win rate. Coppejans has won 9 of his last 15 overall, but his clay record is 9-4 in his last 13, and he has lost his last two matches, including a straight-set loss to Max Hans Rehberg on clay. This suggests Monteiro enters with better momentum on this surface.
- Monteiro's last 15 matches: 10 wins, 5 losses, all on clay.
- Coppejans' last 15 matches: 9 wins, 6 losses, with 13 on clay (9-4) and 2 on hard (0-2).
- Coppejans lost his last two matches: 6-4 6-1 to Max Hans Rehberg on clay and 6-1 6-4 to Jurij Rodionov on hard.
Coppejans is a right-handed player with a two-handed backhand and a career return points won percentage of 42%.
Coppejans' recent clay return numbers are strong: he wins 44.4% of return points, compared to Monteiro's 36.4% in his last 15 matches. This could give Coppejans more break opportunities, especially if Monteiro's second serve is vulnerable (51.2% points won).
- Coppejans' last 13 clay matches: return points won 44.4%.
- Monteiro's last 15 clay matches: return points won 36.4%.
- Monteiro's second serve points won: 51.2%.
The two players have met four times, with Coppejans winning three and Monteiro winning one.
On clay, Coppejans has a 3-0 record against Monteiro, including a 6-2 6-1 win in 2015. However, their most recent meeting in January 2025 was on hard and Monteiro won 6-4 6-3. This historical clay edge may give Coppejans confidence, but the matches are old and may not reflect current form.
- H2H: Coppejans leads 3-1 overall.
- Clay H2H: Coppejans leads 3-0.
- Most recent match: Monteiro won 6-4 6-3 on hard in January 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Monteiro's recent clay form is solid and he won the latest H2H, but Coppejans has a strong clay record and historical edge on this surface, making Monteiro a moderate favorite.
- Monteiro last 15 on clay: 10-5 record, 66.7% win rate, 53.7% games won
- Coppejans last 15 on clay: 9-4 record, 69.2% win rate, 57.8% games won
- H2H: Monteiro won most recent meeting 6-4 6-3 on hard (Jan 2025), but Coppejans leads 3-1 overall, all three wins on clay
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's recent matches have been high-scoring with an average over 24 games, and both players have competitive clay form, supporting a longer match.
- Monteiro last 15 average games per match: 24.6 (369 games / 15 matches)
- Coppejans last 15 average games per match: 18.3 (275 games / 15 matches)
- Monteiro last 15 clay matches: 53.7% games won, many close sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to have competitive first sets, with Monteiro's recent first sets averaging nearly 10 games, making over 9.5 likely.
- Monteiro last 15 first set average: 9.8 games (147 games / 15 matches)
- Coppejans last 15 first set average: 8.9 games (133 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar first-serve percentages around 64%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's stronger first-serve performance in recent matches gives him a slight edge to start the match, though Coppejans is also strong in first sets.
- Monteiro first set win conversion career: 81%
- Coppejans first set win conversion career: 84%
- Monteiro last 15 first serve points won: 74.3% vs Coppejans 68.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's strong ace count combined with Coppejans' modest ace rate projects to around 7 total aces, making over 6.5 a reasonable bet.
- Monteiro last 15 aces per match: 4.8
- Coppejans last 15 aces per match: 1.9
- Combined average aces per match: 6.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 3 double faults per match, so the combined total is likely to stay under 5.5.
- Monteiro last 15 double faults per match: 2.3
- Coppejans last 15 double faults per match: 2.6
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's recent matches have featured several tiebreaks, and both players have similar tiebreak records, suggesting a tiebreak is plausible.
- Monteiro career tiebreak win percentage: 54%
- Coppejans career tiebreak win percentage: 53%
- Monteiro last 15 matches include multiple tiebreaks (e.g., 7-6(7), 7-6(5), 7-6(8))
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-3 (4 meetings)

W6-4 6-3Thiago Moura Monteiro#275vKimmer Coppejans#216Jan 9, 2025

L6-3 6-4Thiago Moura Monteiro#275vKimmer Coppejans#216Feb 2, 2019

L6-2 6-1Thiago Moura Monteiro#275vKimmer Coppejans#216Oct 7, 2015

L7-6(5) 6-4Thiago Moura Monteiro#275vKimmer Coppejans#216Jun 23, 2014

Kimmer Coppejans dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Thiago Moura Monteiro

10W 5L

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#145Tom Gentzsch

6-2 6-4#365Tommaso Compagnucci

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#473Ivan Gakhov

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#120Vilius Gaubas

6-3 6-2#129Andrea Pellegrino

7-5 7-5#192David Jorda Sanchis

6-1 6-4#754Manuel Mazza

6-2 6-1—Alberto Bronzetti

7-6(4) 6-3#272Philip Henning

6-3 4-6 7-5#300Petr Nesterov

6-4 6-4—Flynn Thomas

3-6 6-3 6-4#407Dylan Dietrich

7-6(7) 6-7(4) 7-6(8)#288Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#210Pol Martin Tiffon

6-2 6-3#285Franco Agamenone

Kimmer Coppejans

9W 6L

6-1 6-4#143Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-1#315Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-1#313Miguel Damas

6-2 6-0#92Martin Damm

6-2 7-6(3)#212Guy Den Ouden

6-2 6-1#334Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-1#486Louis Wessels

6-2 7-5#284Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-3 6-2#296Florian Broska

6-3 6-3#212Guy Den Ouden

6-4 7-5#324Daniel Michalski

6-3 6-1#525Ryan Nijboer

6-3 7-6(6)#828Jannik Opitz

3-6 6-1 6-4#567Kirill Kivattsev

6-1 6-2—Timeo Trufelli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TMThiago Moura MonteiroMonteiro

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Kimmer CoppejansCoppejansKC

Thiago Moura Monteiro carries the stronger recent form — Kimmer Coppejans's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In63.8%+1.5pp65.3%

1st Serve Won74.3%+6.0pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+5.3pp45.9%

Aces / Match4.8+2.91.9

Double Faults / Match2.30.3 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.4%+6.5pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.1%+1.0pp43.1%

Break Pts Saved67.5%+10.4pp57.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.6%—51.3%

Serve · 4–1

63.8%1st Serve In+1.5pp65.3%

74.3%1st Serve Won+6.0pp68.3%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp45.9%

4.8Aces / Match+2.91.9

2.3Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

36.4%Return Pts Won+6.5pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

42.1%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp43.1%

67.5%Break Pts Saved+10.4pp57.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.6%Total Pts Won—51.3%