AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Svyatoslav Gulin #576Russia0Lukas Neumayer #169Austria2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 8 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLukas Neumayer · 407 places

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #576
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

Born 6 September 2002 in Salzburg. His ATP-provided profile lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 157, reached in August 2025.

Current ranking: #169
Peak ranking: #157 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Gulin's strong recent clay form and serve efficiency give him a significant edge over Neumayer, who has struggled on clay lately.

Back Gulin to win at 8.00 odds, and consider the over 21.5 total games. Avoid Neumayer at 1.05, as his price ignores his poor recent clay results.

Context

Neumayer, 24, is ranked 191 and has played most of his tennis on clay, with a 27-14 record on the surface in 2026.
His retirement on August 14 against Alex Barrena came after winning the first set in his previous match, so the physical issue may have been acute. He returned to play two hard-court matches in late August, winning one and losing one, which suggests he is competing again, but the quick turnaround to clay and the retirement in his last clay outing add uncertainty about his condition.
- On 2026-08-14, Neumayer retired at 5-1 down against Alex Barrena in a clay-court match.
- He then played two hard-court matches on 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-26, winning one and losing one.
- His last clay match before the retirement was a three-set win on 2026-08-13.
Gulin, 25, is ranked 592 and is a clay-court specialist, with 206 career clay wins and a 24-13 record on the surface in 2026.
Gulin's last 15 matches are all on clay, and he has a 60% win rate with a 52.2% total points won. Neumayer's clay sample over his last 12 matches shows a 41.7% win rate and 49.1% total points won. Gulin's stronger recent results on this surface give him a form advantage, though his lower ranking and weaker career numbers against top-200 opponents remain a counterweight.
- Gulin's last 15 matches: 9-6 record, all on clay.
- Neumayer's last 12 clay matches: 5-7 record.
- Gulin's total points won in last 15: 52.2%; Neumayer's in last 12 clay: 49.1%.
Neumayer is ranked 191, while Gulin is ranked 592, and Neumayer has a 2-0 head-to-head record against Gulin.
The most recent meeting was on hard court in 2024, where Neumayer won 7-5 6-1. The earlier meeting was on clay in 2022, where Neumayer won 6-1 6-3. Neumayer's superior ranking and past success against Gulin suggest he may have a psychological edge, but the matches are from different seasons and Gulin's current clay form is stronger than his ranking suggests.
- 2024-02-16: Neumayer def. Gulin 7-5 6-1 on hard court.
- 2022-09-15: Neumayer def. Gulin 6-1 6-3 on clay.
- Neumayer's current ranking is 191; Gulin's is 592.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 8.00
The read
Gulin's stronger recent clay form and serve efficiency give him the edge over Neumayer's weaker recent clay results.
- Gulin last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 52.2% total points won, 72.4% first-serve points won
- Neumayer last 12 on clay: 5-7 record, 49.1% total points won, 62.8% first-serve points won
- Gulin has won 4 of his last 5 matches, all on clay; Neumayer lost 4 of his last 5 clay matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and competitive sets suggest a total above 21.5 games.
- Gulin last 15 average total games per match: 21.9 (329 games / 15 matches)
- Neumayer last 15 average total games per match: 21.1 (317 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple recent three-set matches, increasing total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's recent first sets have been tight, and Neumayer's competitive clay matches often extend beyond 9.5 games.
- Gulin's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 4-6 (average 10.6 games)
- Neumayer's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 6-1, 1-5 ret., 4-6, 6-2 (average 8.4 games, but includes retirement)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's superior first-set conversion and recent early-set momentum support him taking the opening set.
- Gulin first-set win conversion career: 91%; Neumayer: 80%
- Gulin won first set in 3 of last 4 matches; Neumayer lost first set in 3 of last 4 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates are moderate, making under 3.5 a near coin-flip but slightly favored.
- Gulin averages 1.5 double faults per match in last 15; Neumayer averages 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 3.4, slightly under the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Neumayer's heavy favorite price ignores his poor recent clay form and Gulin's strong serve numbers.

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L7-5 6-1Svyatoslav Gulin#592vLukas Neumayer#191Feb 16, 2024

L6-1 6-3Svyatoslav Gulin#592vLukas Neumayer#191Sep 15, 2022

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

7-6(2) 6-4#401Andrej Martin 7-5 7-6(5)#458Rudolf Molleker

7-6(9) 6-3#369Norbert Gombos

6-3 1-6 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

4-6 6-4 6-1#263Martin Krumich

6-3 6-2—Henri Haupt

6-3 7-6(3)#444Denis Yevseyev

7-6(4) 6-3#734Peter Fajta

6-3 3-6 6-2#869Jakub Paul

6-4 1-6 6-4#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-2#598Amit Vales

6-1 6-2—Augustin Damonte

6-4 6-3#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-1 3-6 6-1#600Pierre Delage

7-5 6-1#148Pedro Martinez Portero

Lukas Neumayer

6W 9L

6-3 6-3#94Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-1 6-4#246James McCabe

5-1 ret.#235Alex Barrena

4-6 7-5 6-0#302Daniel Michalski

6-2 6-4#584Alexander Weis

6-4 6-0#168Francesco Maestrelli

7-6(5) 6-4#54Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 7-6(6)#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(7) 7-5#341Marko Topo

6-4 4-6 6-4#266Mili Poljicak

6-2 6-3#215Henri Squire

6-4 5-7 6-4#231Guido Ivan Justo

6-4 6-3#257Andrej Nedic

6-4 6-4#167Dusan Lajovic

3-6 6-1 6-4#298Florian Broska

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SGSvyatoslav GulinGulin

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Lukas NeumayerNeumayerLN

Svyatoslav Gulin carries the stronger recent form — Lukas Neumayer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In59.0%+7.9pp66.9%

1st Serve Won72.4%+7.7pp64.7%

2nd Serve Won57.0%+4.8pp52.2%

Aces / Match5.5+3.52.0

Double Faults / Match1.50.4 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.3%+1.7pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted32.1%+5.0pp37.1%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+1.3pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.2%+3.0pp49.2%

Serve · 4–1

59.0%1st Serve In+7.9pp66.9%

72.4%1st Serve Won+7.7pp64.7%

57.0%2nd Serve Won+4.8pp52.2%

5.5Aces / Match+3.52.0

1.5Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

39.3%Return Pts Won+1.7pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

32.1%Break Pts Converted+5.0pp37.1%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won+3.0pp49.2%