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Predictions graded

Miguel Damas #302Spain0Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2

Sets 3-6 · 0-4Tue 8 Sept 2026, 12:55 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMiguel Damas · 121 places

Miguel Damas

Spain

Spanish player, born 21 December 1999, with most recorded career wins on clay. His documented singles peak is No. 257 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #302
Peak ranking: #257 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 208 cm

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Brunold's strong recent clay form and dominant last H2H win make him the likely winner, with a small edge at 1.55.

A straight-sets victory is possible, and the match could be relatively short. The double faults over 5.5 is an interesting low-confidence angle.

Context

Brunold, 20, is a Swiss right-hander ranked 410 who has built a 17-10 clay record in 2026 and has won 11 of his last 15 matches on the surface.
Damas has been less reliable recently, winning just 8 of his last 15 clay matches and dropping three of his last five, including a 6-1 6-0 loss to Brunold in July. Brunold's higher win rate and better points-won percentage (52.2% vs 49.4%) suggest he enters with a clear form edge, though Damas's ranking is higher and he has beaten Brunold three times in their four meetings.
- Brunold's last 15 clay matches: 11-4 record, 66.7% sets won, 56.3% games won.
- Damas's last 15 clay matches: 8-7 record, 48.6% sets won, 47.9% games won.
- Damas lost three of his last five matches, including a 6-1 6-0 defeat to Brunold on 2026-07-21.
Damas, 24, is a Spanish right-hander ranked 316 who has a 3-1 head-to-head edge over Brunold, including two wins in April 2026.
Brunold's dominant 6-1 6-0 win in their most recent meeting on 2026-07-21 suggests he may have found a way to neutralize Damas's game. However, Damas's overall head-to-head advantage and his higher ranking indicate he cannot be discounted, making this a potentially closer contest than the recent form gap implies.
- Head-to-head: Damas leads 3-1, with wins on 2025-09-18, 2026-04-19, and 2026-04-30.
- Brunold won the most recent meeting 6-1 6-0 on 2026-07-21.
- All four matches were on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Brunold's superior recent clay form and dominant most recent H2H win outweigh Damas's overall H2H lead.
- Brunold last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 66.7% sets won, 56.3% games won
- Damas last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 48.6% sets won, 47.9% games won
- H2H: Brunold won most recent meeting 6-1 6-0 on 2026-07-21; Damas leads overall 3-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance68%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's efficient wins and the lopsided recent H2H suggest a relatively short match.
- Brunold last 15 average games per match: 21.5 (323 games / 15 matches)
- Damas last 15 average games per match: 22.4 (336 games / 15 matches)
- Most recent H2H: 13 games total (6-1 6-0)
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's stronger first-serve performance and recent H2H dominance support taking the opening set.
- Brunold first set win conversion career: 86%; Damas: 85%
- Brunold last 15 first serve points won: 68.7%; Damas: 58.2%
- Brunold won first set 6-1 in most recent H2H
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's straight-set tendency and recent H2H dominance support a two-set match.
- Brunold last 15: 9 straight-set wins in 11 wins
- Damas last 15: 5 straight-set wins in 8 wins
- Most recent H2H: straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brunold's straight-set tendency and recent H2H blowout make a 2-0 win plausible.
- Brunold last 15: 11 wins, 9 in straight sets
- Damas last 15: 8 wins, 5 in straight sets
- Most recent H2H: Brunold won 2-0
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMika Brunold 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low tiebreak rates for both players suggest a match without a tiebreak is more likely.
- Brunold last 15: 4 tiebreaks in 33 sets (12.1%)
- Damas last 15: 5 tiebreaks in 35 sets (14.3%)
- Combined tiebreak rate: ~13% per set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average nearly three double faults per match, making over 5.5 likely.
- Damas last 15 double faults per match: 2.9
- Brunold last 15 double faults per match: 2.6
- Combined average: 5.5 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are modest, but a three-set match could push the total over the line.
- Brunold last 15 aces per match: 2.4
- Damas last 15 aces per match: 0.9
- Combined average: 3.3 aces per match, but H2H had 8 total aces in 4 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

3-1 (4 meetings)

L6-1 6-0Miguel Damas#316vMika Brunold#410Jul 21, 2026

W6-3 6-1Miguel Damas#316vMika Brunold#410Apr 30, 2026

W6-3 6-3Miguel Damas#316vMika Brunold#410Apr 19, 2026

W6-3 6-1Miguel Damas#316vMika Brunold#410Sep 18, 2025

Miguel Damas dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Miguel Damas

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#140Hugo Dellien 7-5 3-6 7-6(3)#382Dimitar Kuzmanov 7-5 1-6 7-5#220Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#230Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#341Marko Topo

7-5 6-1#217Kimmer Coppejans

2-6 6-3 6-0#561Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-1 6-0#410Mika Brunold

6-3 6-3#60Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

3-6 7-6(6) 6-4#351Thomas Faurel

6-4 6-1#792Nikola Slavic

7-6(3) 6-3#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-1 7-6(6)#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

7-5 2-6 6-2#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-0 6-4—Harold Huens

Mika Brunold

11W 4L

7-5 6-4#443Matthew William Donald

7-6(4) 6-3#573Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#283Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#826Liam Gavrielides

6-3 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 7-6(3)#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 3-6 6-3#328Calvin Hemery

7-6(4) 6-1#416Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#267Harold Mayot

6-1 6-0#316Miguel Damas

6-2 3-6 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-4#392Georgii Kravchenko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMiguel DamasDamas

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Mika BrunoldBrunoldMB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Miguel Damas's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In68.4%+2.6pp65.8%

1st Serve Won58.2%+10.5pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won47.1%+6.7pp53.8%

Aces / Match0.9+1.52.4

Double Faults / Match2.90.3 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.2%+2.0pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.7%+3.6pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved56.9%+1.9pp58.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+2.8pp52.2%

Serve · 1–4

68.4%1st Serve In+2.6pp65.8%

58.2%1st Serve Won+10.5pp68.7%

47.1%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp53.8%

0.9Aces / Match+1.52.4

2.9Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

43.2%Return Pts Won+2.0pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

45.7%Break Pts Converted+3.6pp42.1%

56.9%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp58.8%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+2.8pp52.2%