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Predictions graded

Elias Ymer #212Sweden1Pavel Kotov #250Russia2

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 6-7Tue 8 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElias Ymer · 38 places

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Former world No. 105. Public results indexed for 2026 show retirements in March, but no current-tournament or last-30-days fitness report was found.

Current ranking: #212
Peak ranking: #105
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Pavel Kotov holds a clear edge over Elias Ymer based on recent hard-court form and Ymer's physical uncertainty after a recent retirement.

Kotov's superior serve and break-point resilience make him a strong favorite, with the match winner market offering the best betting value at 1.90 (implied 52.6% vs model 62%). Expect Kotov to win, possibly in straight sets, with a chance of over 21.5 total games and over 10.5 total aces.

Context

Elias Ymer, 30, is ranked No. 204 and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. He retired from his most recent match on September 1 after collapsing twice during the second set.
The reported heatstroke episode raises a real question about his physical readiness for this hard-court match. Follow-up reports say there were no serious after-effects, but the retirement itself means he has not completed a match in over a week. That uncertainty is a meaningful factor against Pavel Kotov, who has been in strong hard-court form.
- The retirement followed two on-court collapses during the Zhangjiagang match on 1 September.
- The reported diagnosis was heatstroke, with follow-up indicating no serious consequence.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-01T06:05:00.000Z against Yu Hsiou Hsu ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ReportedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 03:31 · Europe/BucharestTennisTalker Magazinemagazine.tennistalker.it · 5 Sep 2026
Kotov, 27, is ranked 250 and has a career 58.8% win rate. Ymer, 30, is ranked 204 and has a 54.1% career win rate.
Kotov's recent hard-court record is 6-2 with a 65% sets-won rate, while Ymer is 2-5 with only 30.8% sets won. Kotov also holds a 79.2% first-serve points won on hard courts compared to Ymer's 67.4%, giving him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Kotov's last 15 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 2 losses (75% win rate).
- Ymer's last 15 hard-court matches: 2 wins, 5 losses (28.6% win rate).
- Kotov's first-serve points won on hard courts is 79.2%, Ymer's is 67.4%.
Ymer has played 15 matches in the last three months, with a 6-9 record.
His retirement against Yu Hsiou Hsu came after losing the first set 7-6(4) and trailing 5-5 in the second. The short turnaround to this match could affect his movement or stamina, though no ongoing injury has been confirmed.
- Ymer retired on 2026-09-01 against Yu Hsiou Hsu at 7-6(4) 5-5.
- This match is scheduled for 2026-09-08, giving him one week to recover.
Kotov has a 2-5 clay record in his last 7 matches, but this match is on hard.
His hard-court sample shows a 75% win rate and a 65% sets-won rate, so his recent clay losses should not be weighted heavily for this matchup.
- Kotov's last 7 clay matches: 2 wins, 5 losses.
- Kotov's last 8 hard matches: 6 wins, 2 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Kotov's superior recent hard-court form and Ymer's physical uncertainty give the Russian a clear edge.
- Kotov last 15 on hard: 6-2 record, 65% sets won, 53.2% games won
- Ymer last 15 on hard: 2-5 record, 30.8% sets won, 45.1% games won
- Kotov overall last 15: 8-7, 50.2% total points won; Ymer 6-9, 47.6% total points won
- Ymer retired in his most recent match (Sep 1) after heat-related collapse
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPavel KotovEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline games and Kotov's longer matches suggest a decent chance of exceeding 21.5 games.
- Ymer last 15 average match duration: 95.9 min; Kotov 116.4 min
- Both players have similar second-serve points won (~49%)
- H2H matches: 7-6 6-3 and 6-2 6-3, total games 22 and 14
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set could be tight given both players' moderate return stats and Kotov's slight edge.
- Ymer hard-court last 15: 45.1% games won, often close sets
- Kotov hard-court last 15: 53.2% games won
- Both players have similar return points won on hard (Ymer 33.6%, Kotov 36.2%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set 2 is likely to be competitive if the match stays close, with both players struggling to convert breaks.
- Ymer's recent hard-court matches have included several 7-6 or 7-5 sets
- Kotov's hard-court matches average 115 minutes, indicating longer sets
- Both players have break point conversion rates around 37-42%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's stronger serve and break-point resilience on hard courts should help him take the opening set.
- Kotov first set win conversion career: 86%; Ymer 83%
- Kotov hard-court last 15: 79.2% first serve points won, 63.9% break points saved
- Ymer hard-court last 15: 67.4% first serve points won, 53.3% break points saved
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPavel KotovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's strong ace rate on hard courts should push the combined total above 10.5.
- Kotov hard-court last 15: 7.9 aces per match
- Ymer hard-court last 15: 4.7 aces per match
- Combined average on hard: 12.6 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match on hard, making over 5.5 plausible.
- Ymer hard-court last 15: 3.3 double faults per match
- Kotov hard-court last 15: 3.0 double faults per match
- Combined average on hard: 6.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L7-6(2) 6-3Elias Ymer#204vPavel Kotov#250May 13, 2022

W6-2 6-3Elias Ymer#204vPavel Kotov#250Oct 16, 2021

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Elias Ymer

6W 9L

7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-2 7-6(5)#135Cristian Garin

6-4 6-3#271Franco Roncadelli

6-4 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-4#504Paul Jubb

6-3 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-0 7-6(5)#400Trevor Svajda

6-4 6-1#205Timofey Skatov

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#132Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#227Henry Searle

6-4 6-3#31Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-6(3)#430Niels Visker

6-4 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-3#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(7) 6-3#106Christopher O'Connell

Pavel Kotov

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#335Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#662Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#707Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#83Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#213Guy Den Ouden

1-6 6-1 6-2#230Cezar Cretu

6-1 3-6 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

1-6 6-2 6-3#336Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(7) 5-2 ret.#131Leandro Riedi

6-1 2-0 ret.#248Yi Zhou

4-6 6-3 6-4#196Harry Wendelken

7-6(9) 3-6 6-3#323Fajing Sun

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#275Ilia Simakin

6-4 7-6(6)#247August Holmgren

6-4 6-4#193Keegan Smith

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EYElias YmerYmer

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Pavel KotovKotovPK

Pavel Kotov carries the stronger recent form — Elias Ymer's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In59.1%+3.8pp62.9%

1st Serve Won69.8%+1.4pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won49.0%—49.2%

Aces / Match5.3+0.45.7

Double Faults / Match2.8—2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.0%+4.8pp37.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.5%+4.2pp37.3%

Break Pts Saved56.7%+3.7pp60.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.6%+2.6pp50.2%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

59.1%1st Serve In+3.8pp62.9%

69.8%1st Serve Won+1.4pp71.2%

49.0%2nd Serve Won—49.2%

5.3Aces / Match+0.45.7

2.8Double Faults / Match—2.6

Return · 0–1

33.0%Return Pts Won+4.8pp37.8%

Pressure · 1–1

41.5%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp37.3%

56.7%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp60.4%

Points · 0–1

47.6%Total Pts Won+2.6pp50.2%