SwitzerlandWTA MontreuxFinished

Predictions graded

Martina Trevisan #325Italy2Elsa BonelliSwitzerland0

Sets 6-0 · 6-1Mon 7 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Martina Trevisan

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 18 in May 2023. A foot operation delayed her return to competition; she was back playing WTA 125 clay events in July 2026.

Current ranking: #325
Peak ranking: #18 · 2023
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 160 cm

Elsa Bonelli

Switzerland

Bonelli, 17, has a wild card into Montreux qualifying. Reliable public profile detail beyond her current-event entry is limited.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Trevisan's vast clay-court experience and superior recent form make her a strong favorite over unranked Bonelli.

Expect a straight-sets win with few games, but the 1.05 moneyline offers no value; instead, consider Trevisan -4.5 games, under 20.5 total games, or under 9.5 first-set games.

Context

Trevisan, 32, is a left-hander ranked 325 and a former top-50 player with a career built on clay.
Her recent clay numbers are clearly better: 71.4% win rate and 52.4% return points won versus Bonelli's 50% and 47.4%. Bonelli's first serve is a weapon at 69.7% points won, but her second serve is vulnerable at 33.4%, and Trevisan's return game can exploit that.
- Trevisan last 15 on clay: 10-4 record, 71.4% win rate, 52.4% return points won.
- Bonelli last 15 on clay: 7-7 record, 50% win rate, 47.4% return points won.
- Bonelli's second serve points won is only 33.4%, while Trevisan's return points won is 52.4%.
Bonelli, unranked, has played only 14 career matches and is still developing her serve.
Her double fault rate is extremely high at 8.8 per match, and her second serve win rate is just 33.4%. Trevisan converts break points at 52.1% on clay, so Bonelli's serving struggles could lead to frequent breaks.
- Bonelli averages 8.8 double faults per match over her last 13 tracked matches.
- Bonelli's second serve points won is 33.4%.
- Trevisan's break point conversion on clay is 52.1%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Martina Trevisan

1.05fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Trevisan's superior clay-court record, recent form, and experience give her a decisive edge over the unranked Bonelli.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Trevisan's superior clay-court record, recent form, and experience give her a decisive edge over the unranked Bonelli.
- Trevisan last 15 on clay: 10-4 record, 71.4% win rate, 59.2% games won
- Bonelli last 15 on clay: 7-7 record, 50% win rate, 49.7% games won
- Trevisan career clay wins: 253; Bonelli career clay wins: 7
- Trevisan ranking 325 vs Bonelli unranked
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartina TrevisanEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's ability to win comfortably against lower-ranked opponents suggests a relatively short match.
- Trevisan last 15 clay average games per match: 19.1 (267 games / 14 matches)
- Bonelli last 15 clay average games per match: 21.1 (296 games / 14 matches)
- Trevisan recent dominant wins: 6-1 6-0, 6-2 6-0, 6-0 6-3
- Bonelli's last match was a retirement win at 5-2
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan often starts strongly on clay, while Bonelli has been broken early in recent matches.
- Trevisan won first set 6-1 or 6-2 in 5 of her last 8 clay matches
- Bonelli lost first set 6-2 or worse in 3 of her last 5 clay matches
- Trevisan first set win conversion 86%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's ability to win by large margins against lower-ranked opponents supports a -4.5 game handicap.
- Trevisan average games won per clay match: 11.3 (158/14)
- Bonelli average games lost per clay match: 10.6 (149/14)
- Trevisan's recent dominant wins: 6-1 6-0, 6-2 6-0, 6-0 6-3
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMartina Trevisan -4.5Estimated chance58%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's strong return game and high first-set conversion rate should allow her to take the opening set.
- Trevisan first set win conversion career: 86%
- Trevisan last 15 clay first serve points won: 60.7%
- Bonelli first serve points won: 69.7% but second serve points won only 33.4%
- Trevisan return points won on clay: 52.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartina TrevisanEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's ability to close out matches in straight sets against weaker opponents makes a 2-0 victory likely.
- Trevisan won in straight sets in 8 of her last 10 clay wins
- Bonelli lost in straight sets in 5 of her last 7 clay losses
- Trevisan's first set win conversion 86%
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMartina Trevisan 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's tendency to win in straight sets supports a two-set match.
- Trevisan straight-set wins in 8 of last 10 clay wins
- Bonelli straight-set losses in 5 of last 7 clay losses
- Trevisan's first set win conversion 86%
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's dominance on clay reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Trevisan tiebreak win percentage career: 53%
- Bonelli tiebreak win percentage career: 50%
- Trevisan's recent clay matches often decided in straight sets without tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making a total above 12.5 likely.
- Bonelli double faults per match: 8.8 (last 15)
- Trevisan double faults per match: 5.0 (last 15)
- Combined average double faults per match: 13.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan rarely hits aces, and Bonelli's ace count is modest, so the total is likely to stay under 5.5.
- Trevisan aces per match: 0.4 (last 15)
- Bonelli aces per match: 3.9 (last 15)
- Combined average aces per match: 4.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Martina Trevisan

10W 5L

6-1 6-0#384Julia Stusek

6-3 6-1#256Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-1 7-5#239Francesca Curmi

3-6 6-3 6-2#189Nuria Brancaccio

6-4 6-1#324Francesca Pace

6-3 6-4#256Elena Ruxandra Bertea

2-6 6-1 6-1#104Francesca Jones

4-6 6-2 6-2#166Elizara Yaneva

6-1 7-6(1)#296Aurora Zantedeschi

6-0 6-3#149Tyra Caterina Grant

6-4 6-1#147Julia Riera

6-2 4-6 6-4#394Katerina Tsygourova

6-2 6-0#865Victoria Pohle

6-1 6-2#861Ania Hertel

6-4 6-2#96Taylor Townsend

Elsa Bonelli

7W 7L

5-2 ret.#360Yelyzaveta Kotliar

6-2 7-6(7)#515Ana Grubor

6-4 6-3—Noelia Manta

7-5 7-6(5)#402Tiphanie Lemaitre

6-2 7-5#859Sonja Zhenikhova

3-6 7-6(1) 6-2#637Emily Seibold

6-3 6-3#632Polina Leykina

2-6 6-1 6-3#736Jenny Duerst

6-0 6-3#246Katarina Zavatska

4-6 6-2 7-6(6)#322Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 5-7 6-3#643Melisa Ercan

6-4 6-4#365Zuzanna Pawlikowska

6-2 6-1—Anina Lanz

7-5 6-3—Chiara Talleri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMartina TrevisanTrevisan

Last 15 · 15 vs 14

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Elsa BonelliBonelliEB

Martina Trevisan carries the stronger recent form — Elsa Bonelli's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1467.1%+14.5pp52.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1460.5%+9.2pp69.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1444.0%+10.6pp33.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 12/140.4+3.53.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/145.03.8 fewer8.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1451.3%+3.9pp47.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1451.0%—50.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1447.7%+2.2pp45.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1453.2%+3.2pp50.0%

Serve · 3–2

67.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/14+14.5pp52.6%

60.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/14+9.2pp69.7%

44.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/14+10.6pp33.4%

0.4Aces / Match15/15 · 12/14+3.53.9

5.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/143.8 fewer8.8

Return · 1–0

51.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/14+3.9pp47.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

51.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/14—50.4%

47.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/14+2.2pp45.5%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/14+3.2pp50.0%