SwitzerlandWTA MontreuxFinished

Predictions graded

Martina Trevisan #325Italy2Julia Stusek #384Germany0

Sets 6-1 · 6-0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartina Trevisan · 59 places

Martina Trevisan

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 18 in May 2023. A foot operation delayed her return to competition; she was back playing WTA 125 clay events in July 2026.

Current ranking: #325
Peak ranking: #18 · 2023
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 160 cm

Julia Stusek

Germany

Reached a career-high No. 370 in August 2026. Her first WTA main-draw win came at Hamburg in July 2026.

Current ranking: #384
Peak ranking: #370 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Trevisan's superior clay-court return game and experience give her a moderate edge over Stusek, but the odds on her win are too short.

The best betting angles are under 3.5 total aces and over 8.5 total double faults, given both players' weak serving and high double fault rates.

Context

Trevisan, 32, is a left-hander ranked 325 and has built her career on clay, with 252 career wins on the surface.
Her recent clay record is strong, but the level of opposition has been modest. Against top-200 players in this window she lost to Bertea, Brancaccio, Jones, Riera, and Monnet. That suggests her form may not translate against a more competitive opponent, though Stusek is ranked 384 and also outside the top 300.
- Trevisan is 9-5 on clay in her last 14 matches.
- Her wins came against players ranked 149, 166, 239, 256, 296, 324, 394, 861, and 865.
- She lost to players ranked 104, 147, 189, 196, and 256 in the same period.
Stusek, 19, is ranked 384 and has a career clay record of 18-10, but her recent form has been inconsistent.
Her last 15 matches on clay include wins over Radwanska, Grubor, Cembranos, and Podoroska, but also losses to Lene, Schunk, Pohle, Paquet, and Ivanova. This inconsistency makes her a less reliable favorite despite her similar overall record to Trevisan.
- Stusek is 9-6 on clay in her last 15 matches.
- She beat players ranked 449, 490, 515, 524, 641, 753, and 793.
- She lost to players ranked 48, 297, 315, 538, 679, and 865.
Trevisan's second-serve points won is 41.4% in her last 15 matches, while Stusek's is 40.5%.
With both players vulnerable on second serves, return games may be more productive than usual. Trevisan's return points won is 50.7% and Stusek's is 48.4%, suggesting both can pressure the opponent's serve. This could lead to a match with many breaks and a higher number of games.
- Trevisan's second-serve points won: 41.4% (last 15 matches).
- Stusek's second-serve points won: 40.5% (last 15 matches).
- Trevisan's return points won: 50.7%; Stusek's: 48.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Martina Trevisan

1.35fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Trevisan's stronger clay-court return game and deeper surface history give her a moderate edge over Stusek.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Trevisan's stronger clay-court return game and deeper surface history give her a moderate edge over Stusek.
- Last 15 on clay: Trevisan 9-5 record, 56.3% games won; Stusek 9-6 record, 50.3% games won.
- Trevisan return points won on clay 51.6% vs Stusek 48.4%.
- Trevisan career clay win% 57.4% (252 wins) vs Stusek 18 career clay wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartina TrevisanEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 20 games, and their similar form points to a competitive contest.
- Trevisan last 15 average match duration 103.1 min; Stusek 112.4 min.
- Trevisan last 15 clay games per match average 19.9; Stusek 21.5.
- Both players have 60% win rate in last 15, suggesting competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average near 10 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean.
- Trevisan last 15 clay first set average games 9.6.
- Stusek last 15 clay first set average games 9.8.
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trevisan's slightly better first-set serving and point dominance on clay supports a narrow set-one edge.
- Trevisan first set win conversion career 86%.
- Trevisan last 15 clay first serve points won 60.3% vs Stusek 57.7%.
- Trevisan last 15 clay total points won 52.8% vs Stusek 50.1%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartina TrevisanEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average well under one ace per match, making under 3.5 total aces highly likely.
- Trevisan last 15 aces per match 0.3; Stusek 0.5.
- Combined expected aces per match under 1.0.
- Both players rely on rallying rather than serve power.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 4 double faults per match, making over 8.5 total double faults likely.
- Trevisan last 15 double faults per match 5.3; Stusek 4.5.
- Combined expected double faults per match 9.8.
- Both players have high double fault rates on clay.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players rarely play tiebreaks in recent clay matches, suggesting a tiebreak is less likely.
- Trevisan career tiebreak win rate 53%; Stusek 65%.
- Trevisan last 15 clay matches had 1 tiebreak in 14 matches.
- Stusek last 15 clay matches had 1 tiebreak in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Martina Trevisan

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#256Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-1 7-5#239Francesca Curmi

3-6 6-3 6-2#189Nuria Brancaccio

6-4 6-1#324Francesca Pace

6-3 6-4#256Elena Ruxandra Bertea

2-6 6-1 6-1#104Francesca Jones

4-6 6-2 6-2#166Elizara Yaneva

6-1 7-6(1)#296Aurora Zantedeschi

6-0 6-3#149Tyra Caterina Grant

6-4 6-1#147Julia Riera

6-2 4-6 6-4#394Katerina Tsygourova

6-2 6-0#865Victoria Pohle

6-1 6-2#861Ania Hertel

6-4 6-2#96Taylor Townsend

7-5 7-6(5)#196Carole Monnet

Julia Stusek

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#538Emma Lene

6-3 7-5#641Urszula Radwanska

6-4 6-2#515Ana Grubor

6-1 4-6 7-5#753Paula Cembranos

6-0 3-6 6-3#48Tamara Korpatsch

4-6 6-3 6-4#449Nadia Podoroska

6-1 6-3#315Nastasja Mariana Schunk

4-6 6-1 6-3#865Victoria Pohle

6-4 6-1#297Chloe Paquet

7-5 2-6 7-6(11)#793Berta Passola

7-5 7-5#490Adrienn Nagy

6-4 6-3#524Mara Guth

6-2 6-0—Ginevra Vallega Montebruno

6-3 6-3—Zoe Kaegi

6-1 6-3#679Iva Ivanova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMartina TrevisanTrevisan

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Julia StusekStusekJS

Martina Trevisan carries the stronger recent form — Julia Stusek's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.4%+1.7pp65.7%

1st Serve Won60.1%+2.4pp57.7%

2nd Serve Won41.4%+0.9pp40.5%

Aces / Match0.3—0.5

Double Faults / Match5.30.8 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.7%+2.3pp48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.7%+4.3pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved46.2%+6.7pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+2.2pp50.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

67.4%1st Serve In+1.7pp65.7%

60.1%1st Serve Won+2.4pp57.7%

41.4%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp40.5%

0.3Aces / Match—0.5

5.3Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

50.7%Return Pts Won+2.3pp48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

48.7%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp44.4%

46.2%Break Pts Saved+6.7pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+2.2pp50.1%