ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Kasidit Samrej #406Thailand2Enzo Aguiard #513Australia0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Fri 4 Sept 2026, 06:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKasidit Samrej · 107 places

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied match data was limited. Structured data identifies him as a 191 cm right-hander ranked No. 406.

Current ranking: #406
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Enzo Aguiard

Australia

Career-high No. 483 in July 2026. His public profile lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #513
Peak ranking: #483 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 15:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Enzo Aguiard holds a slight edge over Kasidit Samrej due to superior second-serve stability and fewer double faults.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak being strong possibilities. Best betting angle is Aguiard to win at around 1.73 odds.

Context

Aguiard, 20, is an Australian right-hander ranked 513. He has a 63.3% career win rate and has been more consistent on hard courts this season.
Aguiard's 60% win rate over his last 15 matches edges Samrej's 53.3%, and his recent win over No. 255 Hayato Matsuoka shows he can beat higher-ranked players. However, both players have similar serve and return numbers, so the edge is small and may not decide the match.
- Aguiard's last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), Samrej's: 8-7 (53.3%).
- Aguiard beat No. 255 Hayato Matsuoka 6-3 6-4 on Sept 1, 2026.
- Samrej's last 15 first serve points won: 73.5%, Aguiard's: 74.2%.
Samrej, 24, is a Thai right-hander ranked 486. His serve has been a weakness in recent matches, with a high double fault count.
Samrej's double fault rate is a clear liability, especially against Aguiard, who wins 37.2% of return points. If Samrej continues to double fault at this rate, Aguiard should get more break point opportunities and could control the match from the return games.
- Samrej's last 15 double faults per match: 6.1, Aguiard's: 2.5.
- Samrej's second serve points won: 45.8%, Aguiard's: 52.6%.
- Aguiard's return points won: 37.2%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Aguiard's superior second-serve stability and lower double-fault rate give him a structural edge, supported by a stronger recent record.
- Aguiard last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Samrej 8-7 (53.3%)
- Aguiard second serve points won 52.6% vs Samrej 45.8%
- Aguiard double faults per match 2.5 vs Samrej 6.1
- Aguiard current tournament: 4 straight wins, including over #255 Matsuoka
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEnzo AguiardEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have comparable return stats and long average match durations, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Samrej last 15 average duration 138.3 min, Aguiard 141.1 min
- Samrej games won 51.4%, Aguiard 52.1% in last 15
- Both players have similar return points won (37.2%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have strong first serves and similar first-set game totals, making a tight opening set likely.
- Samrej last 15 first set average games: 9.4 (from recent scores)
- Aguiard last 15 first set average games: 9.7
- Both players have similar first-serve points won (73.5% vs 74.2%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive given similar return stats and recent set game averages.
- Samrej second set average games: 9.8 in last 15
- Aguiard second set average games: 9.6 in last 15
- Both players have similar return points won (37.2%)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aguiard's slightly better first-set conversion and recent first-set success give him a modest edge in set 1.
- Aguiard first set win conversion 89% career vs Samrej 85%
- Aguiard has won first set in 3 of last 4 matches
- Samrej lost first set in 2 of last 3 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEnzo AguiardEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aguiard's stronger second-serve performance and break-point saving should help him maintain momentum into set 2.
- Aguiard second serve points won 52.6% vs Samrej 45.8%
- Aguiard break points saved 70.3% vs Samrej 68.8%
- Aguiard has won set 2 in 3 of last 4 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostEnzo AguiardEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency to play three-set matches, and Aguiard's strong deciding-set record supports a competitive match.
- Samrej deciding set win percentage 43% career, Aguiard 63%
- Aguiard has played 3 three-set matches in last 15
- Samrej has played 5 three-set matches in last 15
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks and similar tiebreak win rates, making a tiebreak likely in this match.
- Samrej tiebreak win percentage 58% career, Aguiard 54%
- Samrej has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Aguiard has played 5 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players suggest a total above 12.5 is likely.
- Samrej aces per match 6.0, Aguiard 6.5 in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 12.5
- Both players have first-serve points won above 73%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's high double-fault rate pushes the combined total above 8.5.
- Samrej double faults per match 6.1, Aguiard 2.5
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.6
- Samrej's high double-fault rate is a key contributor
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Kasidit Samrej

8W 7L

7-5 7-6(3)#179Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(2)#518Hiroki Moriya

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 6-2—Yan Cheng Chen

6-3 6-2—Kai-I Wang

6-4 7-6(5)#664Yuki Mochizuki

6-2 3-6 6-1#567Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-4#295Sergey Fomin

5-7 6-0 6-4#539Kokoro Isomura

3-6 7-5 6-3#881Egor Pleshivtsev

6-4 2-6 6-3#733Grigory Shebekin

6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(3)—Riku Takahata

7-6(4) 6-4#877Makoto Ochi

6-3 6-2—Riku Takahata

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4#528Sanhui Shin

Enzo Aguiard

9W 6L

7-6(1) 6-4#466Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-4#255Hayato Matsuoka

6-7(9) 7-5 7-6(4)#539Kokoro Isomura

6-3 7-6(1)#898Jesse Delaney

6-2 6-4#845Tianhui Zhang

6-3 7-5#691Yusuke Takahashi

6-4 6-3—Reiya Komagata

7-5 6-2—Fanming Meng

6-4 6-7(2) 6-4#399Garrett Johns

3-6 7-6(1) 6-2#690Strong Kirchheimer

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(4)—Aniss Rafiq

6-7(6) 7-5 6-3#403Justin Boulais

6-4 6-2#397Andrew Fenty

4-6 6-3 6-3#477Blake Ellis

1-6 6-3 6-3#731Sebastian Gorzny

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKasidit SamrejSamrej

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Enzo AguiardAguiardEA

Enzo Aguiard carries the stronger recent form — Kasidit Samrej's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.4%+0.9pp60.3%

1st Serve Won73.5%—74.2%

2nd Serve Won45.8%+6.8pp52.6%

Aces / Match6.0+0.56.5

Double Faults / Match6.13.6 fewer2.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won37.2%—37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.0%+3.4pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved68.8%+1.5pp70.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.1pp51.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

59.4%1st Serve In+0.9pp60.3%

73.5%1st Serve Won—74.2%

45.8%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp52.6%

6.0Aces / Match+0.56.5

6.1Double Faults / Match3.6 fewer2.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.2%Return Pts Won—37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted+3.4pp36.6%

68.8%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp70.3%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.1pp51.5%