SpainMallorca - SpainRET

Predictions graded

Inaki Montes-De La Torre #275Spain2Jack Pinnington Jones #172United Kingdom1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 3-0Fri 4 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJack Pinnington Jones · 103 places

Inaki Montes-De La Torre

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 3 October 2002. Public profile data lists a career-best No. 269 in June 2026 and hard as his favourite surface. A June 2025 report described earlier physical problems as overcome, not as an active concern.

Current ranking: #275
Peak ranking: #269 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Jack Pinnington Jones

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 132 on May 18, 2026. His 2026 ITF record was strongest on hard courts at 11-7, compared with 3-5 on clay and 1-3 on grass.

Current ranking: #172
Peak ranking: #132 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Sep 2026, 03:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Inaki Montes-De La Torre's superior recent hard-court form and first-set dominance make him the favorite against Jack Pinnington Jones.

The best betting angle is Montes-De La Torre on the moneyline at 2.40, offering a 16.3-point edge. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games likely.

Context

Montes-De La Torre, ranked 274, has been in strong hard-court form over the past month, winning 6 of 7 matches on the surface.
Pinnington Jones, ranked 165, has a 60% hard-court record in his last 10 matches but has lost to lower-ranked opponents recently. Montes-De La Torre's superior recent hard-court win rate and higher break-point save percentage give him an edge in this matchup.
- Montes-De La Torre's last 7 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 1 loss (85.7% win rate).
- Pinnington Jones's last 10 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 4 losses (60% win rate).
- Montes-De La Torre saved 74.1% of break points on hard courts in his last 7 matches, compared to Pinnington Jones's 56.7% in his last 10.
Pinnington Jones is ranked 165, while Montes-De La Torre is ranked 274.
Despite the ranking gap, Pinnington Jones has been vulnerable against lower-ranked players, losing to Millen Hurrion (ranked 608) and Toby Samuel (ranked 110) in recent hard-court matches. This suggests the ranking advantage may not translate directly to this match.
- Pinnington Jones lost to Millen Hurrion (ranked 608) 6-7(5), 4-6 on hard court on 2026-08-04.
- Pinnington Jones lost to Toby Samuel (ranked 110) 5-7, 1-6 on hard court on 2026-07-28.
- Montes-De La Torre's recent wins include victories over Daniel Rincon (ranked 208) and Mathys Erhard (ranked 339).
Montes-De La Torre has been effective at defending break points on hard courts recently.
His 74.1% break point save rate on hard courts is significantly higher than Pinnington Jones's 56.7%. This could be crucial in a match likely to feature multiple break opportunities, giving Montes-De La Torre an advantage in holding serve under pressure.
- Montes-De La Torre saved 40 of 54 break points on hard courts in his last 7 matches (74.1%).
- Pinnington Jones saved 38 of 67 break points on hard courts in his last 10 matches (56.7%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Inaki Montes-De La Torre's superior recent hard-court form and higher win percentage give him the edge in this match.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre has won 6 of his last 7 hard-court matches (85.7% win rate).
- Jack Pinnington Jones has a 60% win rate on hard courts in his last 10 matches.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre's recent hard-court form includes wins over Daniel Rincon (rank 208) and Mathys Erhard (rank 339).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonInaki Montes-De La TorreEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches suggests a longer match with over 21.5 games.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre's recent hard-court matches average 22.4 total games.
- Jack Pinnington Jones' recent hard-court matches average 21.7 total games.
- Both players have been involved in several three-set matches recently.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, leading to over 9.5 games.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre's last 5 hard-court first sets have averaged 9.8 games.
- Jack Pinnington Jones' last 5 hard-court first sets have averaged 10.2 games.
- Both players have had tiebreaks in recent first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is expected to be competitive, with a slight lean towards over 9.5 games.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre's recent hard-court second sets have averaged 9.4 games.
- Jack Pinnington Jones' recent hard-court second sets have averaged 9.6 games.
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inaki Montes-De La Torre's strong first-set performance on hard courts makes him the likely winner of the opening set.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre has won the first set in 5 of his last 7 hard-court matches.
- Jack Pinnington Jones has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 hard-court matches.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre's first-set win conversion rate is 92% over his career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostInaki Montes-De La TorreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive balance between the players increases the likelihood of a three-set match.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre has played 3 three-set matches in his last 7 hard-court matches.
- Jack Pinnington Jones has played 4 three-set matches in his last 10 hard-court matches.
- Both players have shown the ability to push matches to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates, making over 6.5 double faults likely.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre averages 2.9 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Jack Pinnington Jones averages 3.8 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Combined, they average over 6 double faults per match on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players suggest a total over 7.5 aces is plausible.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre averages 2.6 aces per match on hard courts.
- Jack Pinnington Jones averages 4.5 aces per match on hard courts.
- Combined, they average over 7 aces per match on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Inaki Montes-De La Torre

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#208Daniel Rincon 6-2 3-6 6-4#339Mathys Erhard

6-3 6-4#371George Loffhagen

7-6(8) 6-1#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

3-6 6-3 6-3#500Adrian Boitan

4-6 6-4 6-4#824Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-3#783Matt Ponchet

6-3 6-3#236Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-2#270Hynek Barton

6-3 6-0#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-1 6-3#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 6-1#429Maxime Chazal

6-3 4-6 6-1#304Federico Bondioli

7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(8)#283Sandro Kopp

6-4 6-2#749Andres Santamarta Roig

Jack Pinnington Jones

7W 8L

6-1 6-0#264Michele Ribecai 2-6 6-4 6-4#226Moez Echargui

2-6 7-6(6) 6-3#109Otto Virtanen

7-6(4) 6-4#400Trevor Svajda

6-2 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

4-6 7-5 7-6(2)#211Andres Andrade

6-2 2-0 ret.#214Felix Gill

6-4 6-2#192David Jorda Sanchis

7-6(5) 6-4#608Millen Hurrion

7-5 6-1#110Toby Samuel

6-3 7-6(5) 7-5#17Brandon Nakashima

7-5 6-4#141Jack Draper

5-7 6-3 7-5#83Marco Trungelliti

6-4 4-6 7-6(3)#48Denis Shapovalov

7-5 5-7 6-3#319Filippo Romano

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ITInaki Montes-De La TorreTorre

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Jack Pinnington JonesJonesJJ

Inaki Montes-De La Torre carries the stronger recent form — Jack Pinnington Jones's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.6%+1.5pp61.1%

1st Serve Won65.4%+3.3pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won52.1%+6.0pp46.1%

Aces / Match2.1+2.64.7

Double Faults / Match3.90.5 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.2%+2.8pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.6%+9.2pp46.8%

Break Pts Saved62.8%+6.4pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.0pp49.5%

Serve · 2–3

59.6%1st Serve In+1.5pp61.1%

65.4%1st Serve Won+3.3pp68.7%

52.1%2nd Serve Won+6.0pp46.1%

2.1Aces / Match+2.64.7

3.9Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

41.2%Return Pts Won+2.8pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

37.6%Break Pts Converted+9.2pp46.8%

62.8%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.0pp49.5%