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Predictions graded

Paula Badosa Gibert #83Spain0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Thu 3 Sept 2026, 23:11 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCori Gauff · 79 places

Paula Badosa

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 in April 2022. Badosa is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard courts.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Cori Gauff

United States

Reached a career-high No. 2 on June 10, 2024. The WTA lists hard courts as her favorite surface and Jean-Christophe Faurel as her current coach.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Gauff's elite hard-court form and ranking make her the favorite, but Badosa's H2H lead and competitiveness suggest a closer match than odds imply.

The best betting value is on over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets, while Gauff's match and set odds are too short to back.

Context

Gauff, 22, is ranked No. 4 and has a career 71% win rate. She is a former US Open champion and thrives on hard courts.
Her recent hard-court sample shows a 90.9% win rate, 63.4% of games won, and 49.3% return points won. She has beaten top-30 opponents like Pegula, Kostyuk, and Bouzkova in straight sets, indicating she is in peak form for this surface.
- Gauff's last 11 hard-court matches: 10 wins, 1 loss.
- She won the Cincinnati title on August 23, beating Jessica Pegula 6-2 6-4 in the final.
- In those 11 matches, she won 63.4% of games and 49.3% of return points.
Badosa, 28, is a former world No. 2 now ranked 87th. She has played mostly clay this summer, with 13 of her last 15 matches on that surface.
The retirement came in the second set after losing the first, and she returned to play three matches the following week, so the issue may not be severe. However, the long gap since her last match on July 24 and the switch to hard court add uncertainty about her current physical level.
- On 2026-07-20, Badosa retired at 4-6 0-4 against Mayar Sherif.
- She played three more matches on July 22-24, winning two and losing one.
- Her last match was on 2026-07-24, over five weeks before this US Open match.
Badosa, 28, is the lower-ranked player in this matchup at No. 87 and had not competed since July before this US Open.
She enters this round with only one completed match after a long break, and that first-round win over Kasatkina was split across two days by rain. The interrupted schedule adds a small preparation wrinkle, but her body is healthy and the match still finished in straight sets.
- The Kasatkina match was suspended with Badosa leading 6-1, 5-4 at deuce and was completed the following day.
- Badosa said after the match that she had not played in recent weeks and that her body was healthy.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z against Mayar Sherif ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 22:22 · Europe/BucharestWTA — Gauff's clutch serving lifts her to win over Sonmez in US Open first roundwww.wtatennis.com · 2 Sep 2026AS — Badosa cierra en diez tensos minutos su triunfo ante Kasatkinaas.com · 2 Sep 2026
Badosa has historically matched up well against Gauff, winning five of eight career meetings.
In their most recent match on June 17, Badosa won 1-6 6-3 6-2 after losing the first set. That result, plus a straight-sets win in January, suggests Badosa has tactical answers for Gauff's game, though both wins came on grass and clay, not hard court.
- H2H: Badosa leads 5-3 overall.
- 2026 meetings: Badosa won 7-5 6-4 on Jan 21 and 1-6 6-3 6-2 on Jun 17.
- On hard courts, Badosa leads 3-2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Cori Gauff

1.10fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's superior recent hard-court form and ranking edge outweigh Badosa's H2H lead, especially on this surface.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Cori Gauff

1.20fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's strong first-set record and hard-court dominance make her the likely set 1 winner.

Set 1 Total GameswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 8.5

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

−3.7ppshort

Both players tend to have competitive first sets, making over 8.5 games likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Gauff's superior recent hard-court form and ranking edge outweigh Badosa's H2H lead, especially on this surface.
- Gauff last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), hard-court record 10-1 (90.9%)
- Badosa last 15 overall record 12-3 (80%), but only 1 hard-court match in window (win)
- H2H: Badosa leads 5-3, but Gauff won 2 of last 3 meetings on hard courts
- Gauff ranking #4 vs Badosa #87
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and H2H history suggest a competitive match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Badosa last 15 average games per match: 22.5 (338 games / 15 matches)
- Gauff last 15 average games per match: 21.9 (328 games / 15 matches)
- H2H last 3 meetings: 22, 22, 22 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to have competitive first sets, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Badosa first set average in last 15: 9.9 games
- Gauff first set average in last 15: 9.3 games
- H2H first sets often tight (7-5, 6-4, 6-3)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive in their matchups, but Gauff's dominance could shorten it.
- Badosa second set average in last 15: 9.5 games
- Gauff second set average in last 15: 8.9 games
- H2H second sets have gone to 10+ games in recent meetings
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Gauff's strong first-set record and hard-court dominance make her the likely set 1 winner.
- Gauff first-set win conversion 92% career, Badosa 88%
- Gauff hard-court last 15: 90.9% win rate, 63.4% games won
- Badosa hard-court last 15: only 1 match, 70.6% games won
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's set-winning rate on hard courts supports her in set 2, though Badosa's competitiveness keeps confidence low.
- Gauff has won 87.5% of sets on hard courts in last 15
- Badosa's second-set performance in recent hard-court match was strong (6-4)
- H2H recent matches often go three sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.50
The read
Their recent H2H history shows a strong tendency for three-set matches.
- H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings went to three sets
- Badosa deciding set win rate 62%, Gauff 65%
- Both players have high comeback rates (Badosa 25%, Gauff 32%)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4 aces per match, making over 7.5 total aces plausible.
- Badosa last 15 aces per match: 3.7
- Gauff last 15 aces per match: 4.1
- Combined average: 7.8 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, especially Badosa, pushing the total over 10.5.
- Badosa last 15 double faults per match: 6.0
- Gauff last 15 double faults per match: 4.8
- Combined average: 10.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Coco Gauff has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions, a strong 87% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 75.7%, with an expected 11.4 wins, so she has outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 62% sits within her historical range of 55% to 92%.

Recent evidence for Coco Gauff15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·58%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

58%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

5 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

62%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·85%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

85%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·82%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

82%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·88%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

88%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

Head-to-Head

5-3 (8 meetings)

W1-6 6-3 6-2Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4Jun 17, 2026

W7-5 6-4Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4Jan 21, 2025

L4-6 6-4 6-2Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4Oct 5, 2024

L5-7 6-4 6-1Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4May 13, 2024

W6-3 6-0Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4Apr 29, 2023

W7-6(4) 6-2Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4Aug 5, 2022

L6-2 6-3Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4Feb 23, 2022

W6-2 6-2Paula Badosa Gibert#87vCori Gauff#4Oct 11, 2021

8 total meetings

Previous match context available

Paula Badosa Gibert

12W 3L

6-1 6-4#61Daria Kasatkina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-4#52Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-1#68Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-4#129Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 4-0 ret.#52Mayar Sherif

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#146Tamara Zidansek

6-4 7-6(2)#68Panna Udvardy

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#219Alevtina Ibragimova

6-3 6-1#51Anhelina Kalinina

7-5 7-5#89Simona Waltert

6-1 6-2#84Yulia Putintseva

7-5 7-6(3)#181Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 6-2#88Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-2#133Marina Bassols Ribera

4-6 6-3 7-5#27Emma Navarro

Cori Gauff

13W 2L

6-3 6-4#53Zeynep Sonmez 6-2 6-4#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-1#30Sara Bejlek

6-2 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-3 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

6-1 7-6(3)#28Ann Li

2-6 6-4 6-1#47Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2#2Elena Rybakina

6-3 6-1#69Alina Korneeva

6-1 6-4#35Maria Sakkari

6-2 7-5#117Kayla Day

6-2 1-6 7-6(10)#7Karolina Muchova

4-6 6-3 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

4-6 6-3 6-4#12Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#111Claire Liu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PGPaula Badosa GibertGibert

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Cori GauffGauffCG

Cori Gauff carries the stronger recent form — Paula Badosa Gibert's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.2%+3.2pp60.4%

1st Serve Won67.2%+3.7pp70.9%

2nd Serve Won49.1%—48.5%

Aces / Match3.7+0.44.1

Double Faults / Match6.01.2 fewer4.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won46.6%—47.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.4%+9.8pp47.2%

Break Pts Saved61.2%+1.7pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.7%+1.8pp54.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

57.2%1st Serve In+3.2pp60.4%

67.2%1st Serve Won+3.7pp70.9%

49.1%2nd Serve Won—48.5%

3.7Aces / Match+0.44.1

6.0Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer4.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

46.6%Return Pts Won—47.2%

Pressure · 1–1

37.4%Break Pts Converted+9.8pp47.2%

61.2%Break Pts Saved+1.7pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

52.7%Total Pts Won+1.8pp54.5%

Paula Badosa

Cori Gauff

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Over 2.5

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Over 8.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Paula Badosa Gibert

Cori Gauff

Stat Battle