SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania2Remy Bertola #182Switzerland1

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 6-3Thu 3 Sept 2026, 14:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRemy Bertola · 86 places

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Remy Bertola

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Public player records list hard as his preferred surface and show a career-best ranking reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #182
Peak ranking: #176 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 03:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas holds a clear edge on hard courts with superior recent form and a dominant H2H win, but his moneyline odds offer no value.

The best betting angles are over 22.5 total games and over 7.5 total double faults, driven by both players' high game totals and Bertola's serving woes.

Context

Butvilas, 21, is ranked 195 and has built his 2026 season on hard courts, where he holds an 18-8 record.
His recent hard-court sample shows a 70% win rate and a 52% total points won, while Bertola's last six hard-court matches produced only two wins and a 48.9% points share. Butvilas also converts break points at 49.3% on hard courts, giving him a clear edge in the conditions.
- Butvilas last 15 on hard: 7-3 record, 52% total points won, 49.3% break points converted.
- Bertola last 15 on hard: 2-4 record, 48.9% total points won, 51.7% break points converted.
Butvilas, 21, needed only 66 minutes in his opener before Ofner retired, while Bertola, 27, went the distance in a three-set win over Kym.
Bertola spent more time on court and played a deciding tie-break, so he may carry more fatigue into this round. Butvilas's shorter match could leave him fresher, though the retirement means he did not complete a full competitive set.
- Butvilas's hard-court opener ended at 2-6, 6-0, 3-0 after 66 minutes.
- Bertola's opening win required a deciding-set tie-break.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 03:40 · Europe/BucharestLRTarchyvai.lrt.lt · 1 Sep 2026Sofascorewww.sofascore.com · 1 Sep 2026
Bertola, 27, is a clay-court specialist by career record but has played more hard-court matches recently.
His double-fault rate on hard courts is nearly three times Butvilas's 2.3 per match, and his first-serve percentage is only 51.9%. That gives Butvilas frequent second-serve looks, where Bertola wins just 49.1% of points.
- Bertola hard-court double faults per match: 6.3 (38 in 6 matches).
- Butvilas hard-court double faults per match: 2.3 (23 in 10 matches).
- Bertola hard-court first serve in: 51.9%, second serve points won: 49.1%.
The two have met twice, with each player winning once.
On outdoor hard courts, Butvilas won 6-3 6-2 in October 2024. Bertola's win came on indoor hard in February 2025, so the surface and conditions of this match align more closely with Butvilas's victory.
- 2024-10-07: Butvilas def. Bertola 6-3 6-2 on hard.
- 2025-02-25: Bertola def. Butvilas 2-6 7-5 7-6(4) on indoor hard.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Edas Butvilas

1.36fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Butvilas has a stronger recent hard-court form and return profile, giving him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Butvilas has a stronger recent hard-court form and return profile, giving him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court record: 7-3 (70%), Bertola last 15 hard-court record: 2-4 (33.3%)
- Butvilas last 15 overall return points won: 38.4%, Bertola: 36.2%
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court break point conversion: 49.3%, Bertola: 51.7%
- H2H on hard: Butvilas won 6-3 6-2 in Oct 2024
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with high game totals, and their H2H history includes a three-setter, supporting over 22.5 games.
- Butvilas last 15 average match duration: 106.6 minutes, Bertola: 112.1 minutes
- Butvilas last 15 games per match average: 24.5, Bertola: 25.7
- H2H 2025 match went to three sets with 33 total games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve at a similar rate, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court average games per set: 9.3, Bertola: 10.6
- Butvilas last 15 first set average games: 9.5, Bertola: 10.1
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages around 73%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's superior hard-court game win percentage suggests he could cover a -1.5 game handicap.
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court games won: 54.1%, Bertola: 47.3%
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court return points won: 40.1%, Bertola: 36.7%
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court break point conversion: 49.3%, Bertola: 51.7%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonEdas Butvilas -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's superior hard-court game win percentage suggests he is slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Butvilas last 15 first-set win rate implied by 82% first-set win conversion career stat
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court games won: 54.1%, Bertola: 47.3%
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court first serve points won: 73.3%, Bertola: 72.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bertola's high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, makes over 7.5 total double faults likely.
- Bertola last 15 double faults per match: 5.7, Butvilas: 2.2
- Bertola last 15 hard-court double faults per match: 6.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 6.5 aces per match, making over 12.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Butvilas last 15 aces per match: 6.6, Bertola: 6.5
- Combined average aces per match: 13.1
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court aces per match: 6.7, Bertola: 4.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L2-6 7-5 7-6(4)Edas Butvilas#195vRemy Bertola#174Feb 25, 2025

W6-3 6-2Edas Butvilas#195vRemy Bertola#174Oct 7, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Edas Butvilas

7W 8L

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#125Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#173Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#167Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#157Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#256Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

3-6 7-5 6-3#226Moez Echargui

3-6 6-4 6-4#354Cruz Hewitt

6-3 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

Remy Bertola

8W 7L

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#178Jerome Kym

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#196Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-4#238Alejandro Moro Canas

7-5 7-6(2)#184Andre Ilagan

6-4 6-4#101Jacob Fearnley

6-1 6-4#451Spencer Johnson

6-2 6-1#67Adrian Mannarino

2-6 6-4 3-6 7-5 6-2#259Max Basing

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2#143Jurij Rodionov

2-6 7-6(3) 6-1#218Liam Draxl

6-4 7-5#106Christopher O'Connell

6-3 6-4#117Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 6-3#113Yibing Wu

3-6 7-6(4) 7-6(2)#241Luca Nardi

7-6(3) 6-4#246James McCabe

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EBEdas ButvilasButvilas

Last 15

5–1

9 core stats · 3 even

Remy BertolaBertolaRB

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Remy Bertola's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–0 · 3 even

1st Serve In59.0%+3.5pp55.5%

1st Serve Won73.0%—73.6%

2nd Serve Won49.9%—50.5%

Aces / Match6.6—6.5

Double Faults / Match2.23.5 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.4%+2.2pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.2%+2.8pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved45.7%+9.1pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.1pp49.7%

Serve · 2–0 · 3 even

59.0%1st Serve In+3.5pp55.5%

73.0%1st Serve Won—73.6%

49.9%2nd Serve Won—50.5%

6.6Aces / Match—6.5

2.2Double Faults / Match3.5 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

38.4%Return Pts Won+2.2pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

44.2%Break Pts Converted+2.8pp41.4%

45.7%Break Pts Saved+9.1pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.1pp49.7%