Matej Dodig #257Croatia22 – 1Henry Bernet #436Switzerland1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive recent form and similar surface strengths suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• Dodig last 15 average games per match: 21.3
• Bernet last 15 average games per match: 22.5
• Both players have high deciding-set rates: Dodig 58%, Bernet 41% career

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' first-set stats point to a closely contested opening set, likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• Dodig first set average games: 9.8 in last 15
• Bernet first set average games: 9.9 in last 15
• Both players have strong first-set win conversion, indicating tight opening sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Dodig's competitive recent form suggests he can keep the match close, making +2.5 games a solid lean.

• Dodig last 15 games won percentage 55.2%
• Bernet last 15 games won percentage 59.2%
• Expected game differential is small, favoring Dodig to cover +2.5

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been similarly competitive, supporting a lean toward over 9.5 games.

• Dodig second set average games: 9.5 in last 15
• Bernet second set average games: 9.8 in last 15
• Both players have similar second-set performance trends

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players start strongly, but Bernet's slightly better recent serve metrics give him a marginal first-set edge.

• Bernet first set win conversion 85% career, Dodig 85%
• Bernet won first set in 12 of last 15 matches
• Dodig won first set in 11 of last 15 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bernet's higher double-fault rate pushes the combined total toward over 5.5.

• Dodig averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15
• Bernet averages 3.6 double faults per match in last 15
• Combined average double faults per match: 5.3

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' ace rates suggest a combined total above 12.5 is slightly more likely than not.

• Dodig averages 7.1 aces per match in last 15
• Bernet averages 5.9 aces per match in last 15
• Combined average aces per match: 13.0