ItalyComo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Stefanos Sakellaridis #155Greece1Andrej Nedic #246Bosnia & Herzegovina2

Sets 6-2 · 3-6 · 6-7Tue 1 Sept 2026, 12:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefanos Sakellaridis · 91 places

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

Sakellaridis reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 146 on 22 June 2026. ITF lists a 31–16 professional record in 2026, including 16–7 on clay and 11–6 on hard courts; no reliable current injury or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #155
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Age 21 and currently ranked No. 246, with a published career high of No. 237. Most of his recorded matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #246
Peak ranking: #237
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Sakellaridis is the clear favorite based on ranking, recent form, and serve dominance, but the clay surface and his double-fault tendency give Nedic a glimmer of hope.

The match-winner odds are heavily juiced, so the best value lies in the total aces over 8.5, driven by Sakellaridis's high ace rate.

Context

Sakellaridis, ranked 136, has a 70% win rate on hard courts in his last 10 matches, with a strong serve and solid break-point saving.
This match is on clay, where Sakellaridis has less recent data, but his overall form and ranking advantage may still give him an edge. Nedic's clay-heavy schedule could be an advantage on this surface, but his recent results have been mixed.
- Sakellaridis last 10 hard-court matches: 7 wins, 3 losses.
- Nedic has played 15 of his last 15 matches on clay, with a 46.7% win rate.
Nedic, ranked 257, is a clay-court specialist with 175 career wins on the surface.
On clay, Nedic's experience and comfort may help him compete despite the ranking difference. However, his recent clay form has been inconsistent, with a 46.7% win rate in his last 15 matches.
- Nedic career clay wins: 175.
- Sakellaridis career clay wins: 143.
- Nedic last 15 clay matches: 7 wins, 8 losses.
Sakellaridis's serve is a major weapon, with 8.2 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
On clay, the serve is less dominant, but Sakellaridis's ability to win free points could still be a factor. Nedic's low ace count suggests he relies more on rallying, which may be more effective on clay.
- Sakellaridis last 15 matches: 8.2 aces per match.
- Nedic last 15 matches: 1.3 aces per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Stefanos Sakellaridis

1.08fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Sakellaridis has stronger recent form, better serve metrics, and a higher ranking, giving him a clear edge despite Nedic's clay-court experience.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Sakellaridis has stronger recent form, better serve metrics, and a higher ranking, giving him a clear edge despite Nedic's clay-court experience.
- Sakellaridis last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Nedic 7-8 (46.7%)
- Sakellaridis hard-court last 10 record 7-3 (70%) while Nedic has only 1-1 on hard in 2026
- Sakellaridis ranking 136 vs Nedic 257
- Sakellaridis first serve points won 74.8% vs Nedic 63.4% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStefanos SakellaridisEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be competitive with both players holding serve reasonably well, leading to a higher total games count.
- Sakellaridis last 15 average games per match 23.3
- Nedic last 15 average games per match 20.7
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First set is likely to be close given both players' ability to hold serve.
- Sakellaridis recent hard-court sets often go to 10+ games
- Nedic's clay matches show competitive first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis's strong serve and recent form make him likely to take the opening set.
- Sakellaridis first set win conversion career 90%
- Sakellaridis last 15 first serve points won 74.8%
- Nedic first set win conversion career 88% but lower serve stats
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonStefanos SakellaridisEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis's high ace count should push the total over 8.5 even with Nedic's low ace output.
- Sakellaridis averages 8.2 aces per match in last 15
- Nedic averages only 1.3 aces per match in last 15
- Sakellaridis hard-court aces per match 9.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis's high double fault rate combined with Nedic's moderate rate makes over 5.5 likely.
- Sakellaridis averages 4.2 double faults per match in last 15
- Nedic averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 5.9 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Stefanos Sakellaridis has been highly reliable when projected to win

Stefanos Sakellaridis has fulfilled 6 of 8 recent win projections, a 75% success rate. His average estimated probability in those matches was 62%, with an expected 5 fulfilled predictions, so he has outperformed expectations. When he missed, both losses came as the away player, while all six wins included four away victories and two home wins.

Recent evidence for Stefanos Sakellaridis8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#887Federico Coria0-2#146Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·72%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#887Federico Coria0-2#146Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

72%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#213Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#213Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

62%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#649Ivan Ivanov0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·72%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#649Ivan Ivanov0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

72%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

30 May·Chisinau - Moldova

#226Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#197Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·58%

Matched

30 May 2026

Chisinau - Moldova

#226Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#197Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

58%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

27 May·Chisinau - Moldova

#197Stefanos Sakellaridis2-0#323Alex Martinez

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·62%

Matched

27 May 2026

Chisinau - Moldova

#197Stefanos Sakellaridis2-0#323Alex Martinez

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

62%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

Stefanos Sakellaridis

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#106Christopher O'Connell

6-1 6-4#40Luca Van Assche

6-4 7-6(8)#160Taro Daniel

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#37Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-4#96Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 3-6 6-2#199Ugo Blanchet

6-4 3-6 7-5#180Tristan Schoolkate

3-6 6-3 6-2#459Karl Poling

6-4 6-2#103Titouan Droguet

6-4 7-6(4)#90Martin Damm

6-4 6-2 7-5#308Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#897Federico Coria

6-4 6-2#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-3 6-3#103Titouan Droguet

1-6 7-6(10) 6-3#159Clement Tabur

Andrej Nedic

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#386Laurent Lokoli

6-0 6-0—Filippo Francesco Garbero

2-6 6-4 6-3#357Juan Estevez

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#406Carlos Taberner

3-6 6-4 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

7-6(3) 6-2#270Hynek Barton

4-6 6-2 6-0#145Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(2)#236Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-3#191Lukas Neumayer

6-1 7-6(3)#193Keegan Smith

6-3 6-4#271Franco Roncadelli

6-2 6-0#267Harold Mayot

7-6(5) 7-5#252Felix Balshaw

6-2 6-4#177Max Alcala Gurri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SSStefanos SakellaridisSakellaridis

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Andrej NedicNedicAN

Andrej Nedic carries the stronger recent form — Stefanos Sakellaridis's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.0%+8.8pp65.8%

1st Serve Won74.8%+11.4pp63.4%

2nd Serve Won52.3%—52.1%

Aces / Match8.2+6.91.3

Double Faults / Match4.22.5 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.3%+5.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.2%+11.7pp48.9%

Break Pts Saved60.7%+1.8pp62.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.7%—50.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.0%1st Serve In+8.8pp65.8%

74.8%1st Serve Won+11.4pp63.4%

52.3%2nd Serve Won—52.1%

8.2Aces / Match+6.91.3

4.2Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

34.3%Return Pts Won+5.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

37.2%Break Pts Converted+11.7pp48.9%

60.7%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp62.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.7%Total Pts Won—50.0%