Mallorca - SpainRET

Predictions graded

Sebastian Ofner #126Austria1Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania2

Sets 6-2 · 0-6 · 0-3Tue 1 Sept 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSebastian Ofner · 142 places

Sebastian Ofner

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 37 in January 2024 and lists clay as his favourite surface. ATP records a prior left-heel surgery after injury setbacks in 2022; it is background only, with no current injury report found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #126
Peak ranking: #37 · 2024
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 22:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas holds a clear edge on hard courts with a 7-3 recent record versus Ofner's 0-4, backed by better return and break-point stats.

Back Butvilas to win at 1.80 and consider over 21.5 total games, but avoid set betting and first-set winner markets due to thin value.

Context

Butvilas, 21, is ranked 195 and has built his 2026 season on hard courts with a 17-8 record on the surface.
Ofner has lost four straight hard-court matches and won only 41.7% of games in that sample, while Butvilas has won 70% of his last ten on the surface. That gap suggests Butvilas is better prepared for this matchup, though Ofner's overall ranking edge and experience could still matter.
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court record: 7-3 (70% win rate).
- Ofner last 15 hard-court record: 0-4 (0% win rate).
- Ofner's hard-court games won percentage in that sample is 41.7%.
Ofner, 30, is ranked 125 and has a career win percentage of 56.3%, but his recent results have dipped sharply.
His last five losses include defeats to Kei Nishikori (ranked 477), Marco Trungelliti (83), and Jacob Fearnley (100). That pattern suggests current confidence and execution issues, which could give Butvilas an opening even though Ofner has more tour experience.
- Ofner's last five matches: L, L, L, L, L.
- Losses to Nishikori (477), Safiullin (98), Trungelliti (83), Fearnley (100), Molcan (84).
- Only one win in his last eight matches overall.
Butvilas has spent most of his recent schedule on hard courts, while Ofner's recent matches have been split across clay, grass, and hard.
That difference in surface-specific match volume may give Butvilas a rhythm advantage on this surface. However, Ofner's overall career hard-court win percentage is 56.3%, so he is not unfamiliar with the surface.
- Butvilas last 15 matches by surface: 10 hard, 3 clay, 2 grass.
- Ofner last 15 matches by surface: 4 hard, 9 clay, 2 grass.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Butvilas has a clear recent hard-court form edge and better return/break conversion, while Ofner is winless on hard courts in his last four matches.
- Butvilas last 15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%) vs Ofner 6-9 (40%)
- Butvilas hard-court last 10 record 7-3 (70%) vs Ofner hard-court last 4 record 0-4 (0%)
- Butvilas return points won 37.7% vs Ofner 36.7% in last 15
- Butvilas break points converted 42.3% vs Ofner 35.0% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are evenly matched in total points won, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Ofner last 15 average 22.2 games per match (games won 48.8% of 387 total games)
- Butvilas last 15 average 21.9 games per match (games won 50.8% of 374 total games)
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average near 9.5 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Ofner first-set average games in last 15: 9.4
- Butvilas first-set average games in last 15: 9.6
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's stronger recent hard-court serving and Ofner's slow starts on hard make Butvilas a slight favorite in set one.
- Butvilas first-set win rate implied by 7-8 overall record and 60% sets won on hard
- Ofner lost first set in 3 of last 4 hard matches
- Butvilas first serve points won 73.3% overall last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 7 aces per match, making over 14.5 total aces likely.
- Ofner last 15 aces per match 7.6
- Butvilas last 15 aces per match 7.1
- Combined average aces per match 14.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ofner's high double fault rate combined with Butvilas's moderate rate pushes the total over 6.5.
- Ofner last 15 double faults per match 4.3
- Butvilas last 15 double faults per match 2.3
- Combined average double faults per match 6.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar tiebreak win rates and recent matches have featured tiebreaks, making a tiebreak likely.
- Ofner tiebreak win percentage 51% career
- Butvilas tiebreak win percentage 52% career
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Sebastian Ofner

6W 9L

6-1 2-6 6-2#477Kei Nishikori

6-3 6-4#98Roman Safiullin

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#83Marco Trungelliti

7-6(3) 6-2#100Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-4#84Alex Molcan

6-3 6-4#42Thiago Agustin Tirante

3-6 7-5 6-3#208Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#361Norbert Gombos

7-6(8) 6-4 6-4#46Hubert Hurkacz

1-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-4#78Hamad Medjedovic

2-6 6-2 6-3#40Luca Van Assche

7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3#206Laslo Djere

4-6 6-3 6-3#209Roberto Carballes Baena

6-2 7-5#332Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 6-4#223Raul Brancaccio

Edas Butvilas

7W 8L

7-6(6) 7-5#316Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#173Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#167Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#157Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#422Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#251Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-3#236Frederico Ferreira Silva

3-6 7-5 6-3#225Moez Echargui

3-6 6-4 6-4#368Cruz Hewitt

6-3 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

7-6(1) 6-4#390Trevor Svajda

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SOSebastian OfnerOfner

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Sebastian Ofner's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In53.1%+6.0pp59.1%

1st Serve Won73.5%—73.3%

2nd Serve Won49.8%+1.0pp50.8%

Aces / Match7.6+0.57.1

Double Faults / Match4.32.0 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.7%+1.0pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.0%+7.3pp42.3%

Break Pts Saved60.4%+17.0pp43.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+1.1pp50.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

53.1%1st Serve In+6.0pp59.1%

73.5%1st Serve Won—73.3%

49.8%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp50.8%

7.6Aces / Match+0.57.1

4.3Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won+1.0pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

35.0%Break Pts Converted+7.3pp42.3%

60.4%Break Pts Saved+17.0pp43.4%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+1.1pp50.6%