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Predictions graded

Lucie Havlickova #230Czechia0Anna Bondar #77Hungary2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 18:46 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnna Bondar · 153 places

Lucie Havlickova

Czechia

Havlickova is a 21-year-old Czech right-hander. Official WTA and ITF profiles list hard court as her favourite surface and a career-high singles ranking of No. 196, reached in July 2023.

Current ranking: #230
Peak ranking: #196 · 2023
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Anna Bondar

Hungary

Reached a career-high No. 50 on 18 July 2022. Her strongest documented singles results are concentrated on clay, including multiple Hamburg finals.

Current ranking: #77
Peak ranking: #50 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 06:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Bondar is a slight favorite due to ranking and hard-court experience, but Havlickova's strong qualifying form and return game make this a close contest.

Value lies in over 21.5 total games, Havlickova +3.5 games, and over 2.5 sets. Avoid first set winner and Bondar 2-1 markets.

Context

Bondar, 70th, is the higher-ranked player and has more tour-level experience, while Havlickova, 225th, is a qualifier who has been competing mostly at ITF level.
Havlickova's three qualifying wins, including a three-set victory over 99th-ranked Moyuka Uchijima, show she can compete with players near Bondar's level. However, Bondar's ranking and overall consistency give her a baseline advantage, though her recent hard-court results have been mixed.
- Havlickova's last three matches: W vs Nao Hibino (227), W vs Moyuka Uchijima (99), W vs Elizara Yaneva (166).
- Bondar's last three hard-court matches: L vs Cristina Bucsa (40), W vs En Shuo Liang (303), W vs Elsa Jacquemot (113).
Havlickova, 20, is ranked No. 225 and qualified for her first Grand Slam main draw by beating Nao Hibino 6-0, 6-4 in the final qualifying round.
This is her first main-draw match at a major, which adds a new stage to her experience. She has won five straight matches, so the qualifying run shows current form, but the Grand Slam setting is untested for her.
- Havlickova beat Nao Hibino 6-0, 6-4 in final qualifying on 28 August to secure the main-draw place.
- Stored recent sample: 5 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 06:20 · Europe/BucharestZheng, Liutova qualify for US Open; Zidansek stops Andreescuwww.wtatennis.com · 28 Aug 2026
Havlickova's serve has been a weakness, with a career double-fault rate that is high for a player at her level.
On hard courts, her double-fault rate is 6.2 per match, and her second-serve points won is only 41.8%. Bondar's return game is solid, so Havlickova will need to manage her second serve carefully to avoid giving away easy points.
- Havlickova's hard-court double faults per match: 6.2 (56 in 9 matches).
- Havlickova's hard-court second-serve points won: 41.8%.
- Bondar's overall return points won: 43.9%.
The only previous meeting was on clay, where Bondar's heavy topspin and consistency gave her control.
On hard courts, the faster surface may favor Havlickova's flatter hitting, but Bondar's experience and ranking still make her the favorite. The H2H is too small and surface-specific to be a strong predictor.
- 2023 H2H: Bondar def. Havlickova 6-2 6-4 on clay.
- Bondar's career clay win percentage is much higher than hard-court win percentage.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Bondar's superior ranking and hard-court experience give her a slight edge, though Havlickova's recent qualifying form is strong.
- Bondar has a 9-10 hard-court record in 2026, while Havlickova is 5-4 on hard this year.
- Bondar's last-15 hard-court return points won is 41.8%, slightly below Havlickova's 45.6%.
- Bondar's career hard-court win percentage is 102 wins in 756 matches, while Havlickova has 15 hard-court wins in 222 matches.
- H2H: Bondar won their only meeting 6-2 6-4 on clay in 2023.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnna BondarEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players have been involved in competitive matches with high game totals, suggesting a longer match.
- Havlickova's last 15 matches average 22.8 games per match.
- Bondar's last 15 matches average 24.7 games per match.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 52-53% in recent matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Havlickova's recent form and competitive stats suggest she can keep the match close, covering the +3.5 game handicap.
- Havlickova's recent hard-court games won percentage is 52.2%, while Bondar's is 52.2%.
- Havlickova has won 5 of her last 9 hard-court matches, while Bondar has won 3 of her last 6.
- Havlickova's qualifying run shows strong form, beating higher-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLucie Havlickova +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve.
- Havlickova's recent first sets have averaged 9.6 games.
- Bondar's recent first sets have averaged 9.8 games.
- Both players have similar first-set win percentages around 50-55%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bondar's experience may help her start stronger, but Havlickova's recent momentum makes this a close call.
- Bondar has won 50% of her last 6 hard-court sets, while Havlickova has won 55% of her last 9 hard-court sets.
- Havlickova's first-set win conversion is 88% career, but Bondar's is 86%.
- Bondar lost her most recent match in straight sets, while Havlickova won her last three matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnna BondarEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
The match is likely to be closely contested, with a reasonable chance of going to a deciding set.
- Havlickova has played 3 three-set matches in her last 15.
- Bondar has played 6 three-set matches in her last 15.
- Combined, 9 of 30 recent matches went to three sets (30%).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Havlickova's high double fault rate is a significant factor, pushing the total over the line.
- Havlickova averages 6.1 double faults per match in her last 15 matches.
- Bondar averages 2.8 double faults per match in her last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 8.9 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace rates, and the hard-court surface may lead to slightly more aces.
- Havlickova averages 2.2 aces per match in her last 15 matches.
- Bondar averages 2.7 aces per match in her last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 4.9 aces per match, but hard courts may increase ace counts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Anna Bondar has been highly reliable when projected to win

Anna Bondar has fulfilled 8 of 9 recent win predictions, a strong 89% fulfilment rate. Her average estimated probability was 63.2%, yet she won 8 matches, exceeding the expected 5.7 wins. The only miss came against Tamara Zidansek at 65% probability, while her successful predictions averaged 63%.

Recent evidence for Anna Bondar9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-0#117Alina Charaeva

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·58%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-0#117Alina Charaeva

Anna Bondar to win

58%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-1#144Noma Noha Akugue

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·58%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-1#144Noma Noha Akugue

Anna Bondar to win

58%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#73Anna Bondar2-0#108Moyuka Uchijima

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#73Anna Bondar2-0#108Moyuka Uchijima

Anna Bondar to win

62%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

15 Jul·WTA Iasi

#73Anna Bondar1-2#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·65%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#73Anna Bondar1-2#148Tamara Zidansek

Anna Bondar to win

65%probability

Tamara Zidansek won

Missed

13 Jun·WTA Nottingham

#99Emiliana Arango0-2#75Anna Bondar

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·62%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

WTA Nottingham

#99Emiliana Arango0-2#75Anna Bondar

Anna Bondar to win

62%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-4Lucie Havlickova#225vAnna Bondar#70Sep 9, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Lucie Havlickova

9W 6L

6-0 6-4#227Nao Hibino

6-2 2-6 7-6(6)#99Moyuka Uchijima

6-2 7-5#166Elizara Yaneva

3-6 6-4 6-3#542Valeriya Strakhova

6-4 6-1#899Victoria Bervid

6-4 6-2#28Barbora Krejcikova

6-2 6-4#89Alycia Parks

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#215Harmony Tan

6-0 6-4#227Nao Hibino

7-5 7-5#385Stephanie Judith Visscher

6-0 6-2—Maria Garcia

7-5 5-7 6-4#219Maria Lourdes Carle

4-6 7-6(3) 6-1#242Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4#434Jana Kovackova

6-2 6-3#306Hibah Shaikh

Anna Bondar

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#40Cristina Bucsa

6-3 4-6 6-1#303En Shuo Liang

6-3 6-3#113Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 7-6(5)#105Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

3-6 6-4 6-4#24Elise Mertens

6-4 7-5#49Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 6-3#47Tamara Korpatsch

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(2)#159Elina Avanesyan

6-1 7-6(3)#108Alina Charaeva

6-1 3-6 7-5#137Noma Akugue Noha

7-5 6-4#99Moyuka Uchijima

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5#146Tamara Zidansek

7-5 6-4#202Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 5-7 7-5#87Solana Sierra

7-6(4) 3-2 ret.#76Panna Udvardy

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LHLucie HavlickovaHavlickova

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Anna BondarBondarAB

Lucie Havlickova carries the stronger recent form — Anna Bondar's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In56.9%+1.8pp58.7%

1st Serve Won68.2%+5.2pp63.0%

2nd Serve Won43.0%+7.3pp50.3%

Aces / Match2.2+0.52.7

Double Faults / Match6.13.3 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.4%+2.5pp43.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.6%+2.2pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved63.4%+6.4pp57.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+1.2pp50.9%

Serve · 1–4

56.9%1st Serve In+1.8pp58.7%

68.2%1st Serve Won+5.2pp63.0%

43.0%2nd Serve Won+7.3pp50.3%

2.2Aces / Match+0.52.7

6.1Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

46.4%Return Pts Won+2.5pp43.9%

Pressure · 2–0

46.6%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp44.4%

63.4%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp57.0%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.9%

Lucie Havlickova

Anna Bondar

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Lucie Havlickova +3.5

Over 21.5

Over 2.5

Anna Bondar

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Lucie Havlickova

Anna Bondar

Stat Battle