United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Sara Bejlek #38Czechia1Cristina Bucsa #40Spain2

Sets 5-7 · 6-4 · 1-6Mon 31 Aug 2026, 15:02 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSara Bejlek · 2 places

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Czech left-hander born January 31, 2006. She reached a career-high No. 34 in April 2026 and won her first WTA singles title from qualifying in Abu Dhabi earlier that season.

Current ranking: #38
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Cristina Bucsa

Spain

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 30 on March 16, 2026. Her 2026 season included a wrist-related absence from the grass swing before her August return in Toronto.

Current ranking: #40
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 03:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Sara Bejlek is a strong favorite over Cristina Bucsa based on superior hard-court form and quality wins.

The best betting value is on over 20.5 total games, with a positive edge of 8 points. Bejlek's first-set dominance and Bucsa's inconsistency make the match likely to go Bejlek's way, but the odds on the match winner are too short for value.

Context

Bejlek, 29th-ranked left-hander, has been in excellent hard-court form this summer, including wins over Sabalenka and Keys. Bucsa, ranked 40th, has struggled for consistency on hard courts in recent months.
Bejlek's 71.4% hard-court win rate in her last 14 matches is backed by a 51.5% total points won and a 46.4% return points won. Bucsa's 45.5% win rate and 43.0% return points won on hard courts suggest she will struggle to break serve. This form gap gives Bejlek a clear edge in baseline rallies and return games.
- Bejlek last 15 on hard: 10-4 record, 51.5% total points won, 46.4% return points won.
- Bucsa last 15 on hard: 5-6 record, 48.7% total points won, 43.0% return points won.
- Bejlek's recent wins include victories over Sabalenka (ranked 1) and Keys (ranked 23).
Bucsa, a 28-year-old Spaniard, has struggled to find rhythm in 2026, with early losses in most tournaments.
Her 33.3% win rate in the last 15 matches is compounded by a 38.9% sets won and 46.3% games won. She has lost to players ranked outside the top 90 in recent weeks, including Vidmanova and Uchijima. This poor run suggests she may lack confidence and match sharpness entering the US Open.
- Bucsa last 15 overall: 5-10 record, 38.9% sets won, 46.3% games won.
- Recent losses to Vidmanova (ranked 90), Uchijima (99), and Kudermetova (96).
- Retired in March against Starodubtseva.
Cristina Bucsa, 28, is ranked No. 40 and returned to competition in August after a right-wrist absence that began after Roland Garros.
She played in Monterrey on August 26, just three days before the US Open begins, so her preparation has been compressed. The wrist issue is reported, not confirmed, and her recent sample shows only two wins from five matches, which adds uncertainty about her physical readiness for a best-of-three Grand Slam opener.
- Her July return followed an absence from late May linked to a right-wrist injury.
- She played Anna Bondar in Monterrey on August 26 and then Darja Vidmanova on August 27.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 03:47 · Europe/BucharestBucsa pays for inactivityas.com · 28 Jul 2026Bucsa beats Bondar and reaches the Monterrey round of 16as.com · 26 Aug 2026US Open draw: Swiatek lands alongside Rybakina, Osaka and Keyswww.wtatennis.com · 27 Aug 2026
Bejlek has been in career-best form, reaching the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Open with wins over top-25 players.
Her victories over Sabalenka (ranked 1) and Keys (ranked 23) demonstrate her ability to handle power and big serves. This experience against top players should give her an edge in tight moments against Bucsa, who has not faced such high-level opposition recently.
- Bejlek beat Sabalenka 7-6(7) 6-4 on August 19, 2026.
- Bejlek beat Keys 3-6 6-4 7-6(5) on August 21, 2026.
- Both wins came on hard courts in Cincinnati.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sara Bejlek

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Bejlek's superior recent hard-court form and higher-quality wins give her a clear edge over Bucsa, whose recent results and wrist-related return context are weaker.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sara Bejlek

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Bejlek's strong first-set conversion and current form make her likely to take the opener, but the odds are too short for value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Bejlek's superior recent hard-court form and higher-quality wins give her a clear edge over Bucsa, whose recent results and wrist-related return context are weaker.
- Bejlek last 15 on hard: 10-4 record, 62.5% sets won, 54.6% games won
- Bucsa last 15 on hard: 5-6 record, 44.0% sets won, 47.1% games won
- Bejlek recent form includes wins over Sabalenka, Keys, Krejcikova; Bucsa lost to Vidmanova and Chwalinska in last 3
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSara BejlekEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
The combined recent match lengths and potential for a competitive set make over 20.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Bejlek last 15 hard average total games per match: 20.9
- Bucsa last 15 hard average total games per match: 20.6
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent hard-court form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown ability to extend sets, and the first set could be tight given Bucsa's fighting spirit.
- Bejlek last 15 hard: 54.6% games won, many close sets
- Bucsa last 15 hard: 47.1% games won, often competitive early
- Recent H2H absent, but both have tiebreak history
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Bucsa raises her level after losing the first set, the second set could see more games.
- Bejlek last 15 hard: 54.6% games won
- Bucsa last 15 hard: 47.1% games won
- Bucsa has forced three-setters in 4 of last 11 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Bejlek's high first-set conversion rate and current form make her likely to take the opening set against Bucsa's inconsistent starts.
- Bejlek first-set win conversion career: 93%
- Bejlek last 15 hard: 10-4 record, strong starts in recent wins
- Bucsa last 15 hard: 5-6 record, lost first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSara BejlekEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Bejlek's overall set-winning edge on hard courts suggests she is more likely to also take the second set if the match stays competitive.
- Bejlek last 15 hard: 62.5% sets won
- Bucsa last 15 hard: 44.0% sets won
- Bejlek won second set in 7 of last 10 hard-court wins
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSara BejlekEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Bejlek last 15 hard: 1.4 aces per match
- Bucsa last 15 hard: 1.4 aces per match
- Combined average aces per match: 2.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bucsa's higher double fault rate and both players' recent numbers support over 5.5 total double faults.
- Bejlek last 15 hard: 2.2 double faults per match
- Bucsa last 15 hard: 3.4 double faults per match
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Sara Bejlek has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Sara Bejlek has fulfilled 4 of 8 win predictions, a 50% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 63.8%, but she won only 50% of those matches, underperforming the expected 5.1 wins. Notably, all four missed predictions ended in straight-set losses, suggesting that when she loses, she often loses decisively.

Recent evidence for Sara Bejlek8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-0#40Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·65%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-0#40Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

65%probability

Lilli Tagger won

Missed

21 Jul·WTA Prague

#102Anna Blinkova1-2#42Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#102Anna Blinkova1-2#42Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

58%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

15 Jul·WTA Athens

#84Lilli Tagger0-2#42Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#84Lilli Tagger0-2#42Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

62%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

13 Jul·WTA Athens

#303Viktoria Morvayova0-2#45Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·82%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#303Viktoria Morvayova0-2#45Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

82%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#45Dayana Yastremska2-0#35Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·58%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#45Dayana Yastremska2-0#35Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

58%probability

Dayana Yastremska won

Missed

Sara Bejlek

10W 5L

6-4 6-1#4Cori Gauff

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#23Madison Keys

7-6(7) 6-4#1Aryna Sabalenka

4-6 6-1 6-2#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-6(5) 6-4#28Barbora Krejcikova

6-0 6-2#56Karolina Pliskova

6-0 6-3#8Iga Swiatek

6-3 4-6 7-5#82Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-4#48Lilli Tagger

6-1 6-1#92Maria Timofeeva

7-6(9) 3-6 6-1#94Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#42Clara Tauson

6-2 6-2#48Lilli Tagger

6-0 7-5#311Viktoria Morvayova

6-1 7-6(6)#17Sorana Cirstea

Cristina Bucsa

5W 10L

6-4 7-5#90Darja Vidmanova

6-4 6-3#70Anna Bondar

6-2 6-2#21Maja Chwalinska

6-2 1-6 7-5#76Panna Udvardy

6-3 6-4#99Moyuka Uchijima

5-7 7-6(4) 6-0#96Polina Kudermetova

6-4 2-6 6-4#152Susan Bandecchi

2-6 7-6(7) 7-5#53Shuai Zhang

7-6(6) 6-2#121Qinwen Zheng

6-1 6-7(4) 6-2#52Zeynep Sonmez

6-2 3-2 ret.#74Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-2 6-1#24Elise Mertens

6-4 6-0#90Darja Vidmanova

6-1 4-6 6-4#37Magdalena Frech

7-5 6-4#20Jasmine Paolini

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SBSara BejlekBejlek

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Cristina BucsaBucsaCB

Sara Bejlek carries the stronger recent form — Cristina Bucsa's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.6%—62.6%

1st Serve Won60.4%+0.8pp61.2%

2nd Serve Won50.0%+7.3pp42.7%

Aces / Match1.4—1.4

Double Faults / Match2.11.4 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.0%+2.6pp43.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted45.9%+2.8pp43.1%

Break Pts Saved52.2%+3.4pp48.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.2%+2.6pp48.6%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

62.6%1st Serve In—62.6%

60.4%1st Serve Won+0.8pp61.2%

50.0%2nd Serve Won+7.3pp42.7%

1.4Aces / Match—1.4

2.1Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

46.0%Return Pts Won+2.6pp43.4%

Pressure · 2–0

45.9%Break Pts Converted+2.8pp43.1%

52.2%Break Pts Saved+3.4pp48.8%

Points · 1–0

51.2%Total Pts Won+2.6pp48.6%

Sara Bejlek

Cristina Bucsa

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Sara Bejlek

Cristina Bucsa

Stat Battle