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Predictions graded

Ashlyn Krueger #58United States0Amanda Anisimova #10United States2

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Mon 31 Aug 2026, 18:22 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAmanda Anisimova · 48 places

Ashlyn Krueger

United States

American right-hander born in May 2004. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or Cincinnati workload signal was established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #58
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Amanda Anisimova

United States

Anisimova is a 24-year-old American right-hander who reached career-high No. 3 in January 2026. Her prior Rome wrist withdrawal was in May 2026 and is not treated as a current fitness alert.

Current ranking: #10
Peak ranking: #3 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 03:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Anisimova is the clear favorite based on ranking and hard-court record, but her odds of 1.15 are overpriced relative to her 62% model probability.

Krueger's recent grass form is misleading; on hard courts she has struggled. Best value may be in over total double faults (9.5) given both players' high double fault rates.

Context

Anisimova, ranked No. 10, has been a consistent top-20 player on hard courts, while Krueger, ranked No. 62, has struggled on the surface recently.
Anisimova's recent hard-court results include wins over top-20 opponents, while Krueger's losses have come against lower-ranked players. This suggests Anisimova is better prepared for the surface, but Krueger's overall last-15 record is stronger, so the match could be closer than the surface split implies.
- Anisimova's last 7 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 3 losses, including wins over Noskova (No. 6) and Eala (No. 18).
- Krueger's last 5 hard-court matches: 2 wins, 3 losses, including losses to Grabher (No. 114) and Boisson (No. 236).
Krueger, 22, has been managing a busy schedule and recently retired from a match against Osaka.
The retirement was over a month ago, and Krueger has played three matches since, so the immediate physical concern may have passed. However, her hard-court losses since then suggest she may not be fully recovered or in rhythm.
- Krueger retired against Naomi Osaka on July 29, 2026, trailing 6-3 3-1.
- Since returning, she lost to Lois Boisson and Julia Grabher, both ranked outside the top 100.
The two Americans have met once before, in 2022 on hard court.
Anisimova won that match 6-2 7-6(5), but it was four years ago and both players have changed significantly since. The result is a minor psychological edge for Anisimova, but not a strong predictor.
- 2022 hard-court match: Anisimova defeated Krueger 6-2 7-6(5).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Amanda Anisimova

1.15fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Anisimova's superior ranking and hard-court record give her the edge, but the odds heavily overprice her.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Anisimova's superior ranking, stronger hard-court record, and better quality of opposition in recent matches give her the edge despite Krueger's higher overall recent win percentage.
- Anisimova is ranked #10 vs Krueger #62.
- Anisimova's last 15 overall record is 9-6 (60%) vs Krueger's 11-4 (73.3%), but Krueger's recent wins are mostly on grass against lower-ranked opponents.
- On hard courts in the last 15, Anisimova is 4-3 (57.1%) vs Krueger 2-3 (40%).
- Anisimova has a 15-8 hard court record in 2026 vs Krueger 8-10.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be competitive with both players having similar overall game win rates, leading to a higher total games count.
- Krueger's last 15 matches average 21.6 games per match.
- Anisimova's last 15 matches average 21.5 games per match.
- Both players have similar games won percentages (Krueger 55.2%, Anisimova 55%).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be close given the players' comparable serving stats on hard courts.
- Krueger's recent hard court matches have averaged 9.2 games in the first set.
- Anisimova's recent hard court matches have averaged 9.4 games in the first set.
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages on hard courts (Krueger 67.1%, Anisimova 64.1%).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's stronger hard-court form and higher level of competition suggest she is more likely to start well.
- Anisimova's first set win conversion is 84% career, same as Krueger.
- Anisimova has won 4 of her last 7 hard court matches, while Krueger has lost 3 of her last 5 hard court matches.
- Anisimova's recent hard court losses were to top-10 players (Pegula, Svitolina, Bencic).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace counts, and a competitive match could see the total aces exceed 8.5.
- Krueger averages 4.8 aces per match in last 15, Anisimova 4.2.
- On hard courts, Krueger averages 3.6 aces per match, Anisimova 3.3.
- Combined average aces per match is around 9.0 overall, but hard court averages are lower.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making it likely the total double faults will exceed 9.5.
- Krueger averages 5.2 double faults per match in last 15, Anisimova 4.8.
- On hard courts, Krueger averages 5.4 double faults, Anisimova 4.9.
- Combined average double faults per match is around 10.0.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Anisimova is heavily overpriced at 1.15 despite a model estimate of only 62%.

Prediction history

Amanda Anisimova has been reliable when projected to win

Amanda Anisimova has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions. Her average estimated probability was 72.1%, with an expected 5.1 fulfilled predictions, so she performed in line with expectations. The two missed predictions both came at 65% probability, while matched predictions averaged 75%, suggesting her stronger projections have been more dependable.

Recent evidence for Amanda Anisimova7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-1#105Sofia Kenin

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·72%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-1#105Sofia Kenin

Amanda Anisimova to win

72%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-0#223Lina Gjorcheska

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·88%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-0#223Lina Gjorcheska

Amanda Anisimova to win

88%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

12 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-1#5Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-1#5Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Missed

10 Jun·WTA London

#44Laura Siegemund0-2#5Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA London

#44Laura Siegemund0-2#5Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

30 May·WTA Roland Garros

#92Diane Parry2-1#6Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Missed

30 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#92Diane Parry2-1#6Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Diane Parry won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 7-6(5)Ashlyn Krueger#62vAmanda Anisimova#10Aug 1, 2022

1 total meetings

Ashlyn Krueger

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#114Julia Grabher

6-1 6-4#872Anna Frey

6-3 6-2#236Lois Boisson

6-3 3-1 ret.#13Naomi Osaka

3-6 6-2 6-2#60Katie Boulter

6-4 6-4#11Marta Kostyuk

6-3 6-2#44Daria Snigur

6-1 6-0#418Mariam Bolkvadze

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#36Donna Vekic

7-6(8) 6-1#160Polina Iatcenko

6-3 5-7 6-3#167Mai Hontama

7-5 7-5#184Gabriela Andrea Knutson

7-5 6-2#220Celine Naef

6-4 3-6 6-4#90Darja Vidmanova

6-4 3-6 6-2#235Alicia Dudeney

Amanda Anisimova

9W 6L

6-4 2-6 7-6(4)#3Jessica Pegula

6-1 6-4#6Linda Noskova

4-6 6-4 6-2#18Alexandra Eala

6-2 6-3#52Zeynep Sonmez

6-2 6-4#9Elina Svitolina

3-6 6-0 6-4#38Nikola Bartunkova

3-6 6-2 6-3#23Madison Keys

6-2 4-6 7-6(3)#110Sofia Kenin

6-3 6-2#253Lina Gjorcheska

6-2 3-6 6-3#14Iva Jovic

6-1 6-3#102Laura Siegemund

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#50Diane Parry

6-0 ret.#114Julia Grabher

6-3 6-1#172Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

6-2 6-2#12Belinda Bencic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAshlyn KruegerKrueger

Last 15

2–3

9 core stats · 4 even

Amanda AnisimovaAnisimovaAA

Amanda Anisimova carries the stronger recent form — Ashlyn Krueger's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In64.0%—64.3%

1st Serve Won67.0%—66.9%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+3.3pp49.2%

Aces / Match4.8+0.64.2

Double Faults / Match5.20.4 fewer4.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won45.5%—44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted51.2%+2.0pp53.2%

Break Pts Saved62.0%+5.6pp56.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.6%—52.8%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 7 vs 6

Winners / Match7/15 · 6/1521.9+0.822.7

Unforced Errors / Match7/15 · 6/1526.64.9 fewer31.5

Net Pts Won7/15 · 6/1556.0%+4.3pp60.3%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

64.0%1st Serve In—64.3%

67.0%1st Serve Won—66.9%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp49.2%

4.8Aces / Match+0.64.2

5.2Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer4.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

45.5%Return Pts Won—44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

51.2%Break Pts Converted+2.0pp53.2%

62.0%Break Pts Saved+5.6pp56.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.6%Total Pts Won—52.8%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 7 vs 6

21.9Winners7/15 · 6/15+0.822.7

26.6Unforced Errors7/15 · 6/154.9 fewer31.5

56.0%Net Pts Won7/15 · 6/15+4.3pp60.3%

Ashlyn Krueger #58United States0Amanda Anisimova #10United States2

Player Profiles

Ashlyn Krueger

Amanda Anisimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Amanda Anisimova

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Amanda Anisimova @ 1.15

Amanda Anisimova 2-1 @ 4.00

Amanda Anisimova has been reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Ashlyn Krueger

Amanda Anisimova

Stat Battle