JamaicaKingston - JamaicaFinished

Predictions graded

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #292Mexico1Andres Andrade #251Ecuador2

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 4-6Fri 28 Aug 2026, 21:15 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndres Andrade · 41 places

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

Mexican left-hander, 191 cm, with a career-high ranking of No. 196 reached in September 2025. Recent public evidence shows a main-draw win at Los Cabos in July 2026 and a current team change.

Current ranking: #292
Peak ranking: #196 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

A 27-year-old Ecuadorian right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 210 on 2026-05-18 and is currently ranked No. 251.

Current ranking: #251
Peak ranking: #210 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Aug 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Pacheco Mendez has better recent form and break point saving, but Andrade's return game and competitive matches make this closer than odds suggest.

Best value lies in Andrade +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, while the match winner market offers no edge.

Context

Pacheco Mendez, 21, is a left-hander from Mexico ranked 294. He has been playing primarily on hard courts this season and reached the semi-finals here with three straight wins.
Pacheco Mendez has a 63.6% win rate on hard courts in his last 15 matches, compared to Andrade's 58.3%. However, Pacheco's recent wins came against lower-ranked opponents (average ranking around 500), while Andrade has beaten several players inside the top 200. This suggests Pacheco's form may be slightly inflated by weaker opposition, making the matchup closer than the raw numbers indicate.
- Pacheco Mendez: 7-4 on hard courts in last 15 matches (63.6% win rate).
- Andrade: 7-5 on hard courts in last 15 matches (58.3% win rate).
- Pacheco Mendez's recent hard-court wins: vs. Tobon (510), Gonzalez Fernandez (602), Jubb (499), Barrios Vera (144), Pascual Ferra (655), Hernandez (465).
- Andrade's recent hard-court wins: vs. Purcell (650), Marrero Curbelo (351), Winter (342), Draxl (217), Schwaerzler (171), Onclin (158), Popyrin (130).
Andrade, 27, is a right-hander from Ecuador ranked 243. He has a career return points won percentage of 43%, indicating a solid return game.
Andrade's return points won on hard courts (42.9%) is higher than Pacheco Mendez's (40.5%). This could allow Andrade to create more break point opportunities, especially against Pacheco Mendez's first serve, which has been effective but not dominant. However, Pacheco Mendez saves 70.2% of break points on hard courts, so converting those chances will be key for Andrade.
- Andrade: 42.9% return points won on hard courts in last 15 matches.
- Pacheco Mendez: 40.5% return points won on hard courts in last 15 matches.
- Pacheco Mendez: 70.2% break points saved on hard courts in last 15 matches.
Andrade has been active on the hard-court swing, playing 15 matches in the last two months.
Andrade's recent matches have been physically demanding: he lost a three-setter to Pinnington Jones (4-6 7-5 7-6(2)) and won a three-setter against Schwaerzler (6-3 6-7(5) 7-5). These long matches could leave him with less energy for this semi-final, especially if the match goes the distance. Pacheco Mendez has had shorter matches in this tournament, winning all three in straight sets.
- Andrade's last 15 matches include four three-set matches.
- Andrade lost to Pinnington Jones 4-6 7-5 7-6(2) on Aug 14.
- Andrade beat Schwaerzler 6-3 6-7(5) 7-5 on Aug 13.
- Pacheco Mendez won all three matches this week in straight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Pacheco Mendez has better recent form and stronger break point saving on hard courts, but the odds overstate his edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Pacheco Mendez has better recent form and stronger break point saving on hard courts, giving him a slight edge despite the ranking gap.
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Andrade 7-8 (46.7%)
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 hard record 7-4 (63.6%), Andrade 7-5 (58.3%)
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 break points saved 70.3%, Andrade 47.4%
- Pacheco Mendez ranking 294, Andrade 243
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andrade's competitive recent form and strong return game make him likely to keep the match within 3.5 games.
- Andrade last 15 games won percentage 50.6%, Pacheco Mendez 54.5%
- Andrade has a higher return points won percentage (41.8% vs 39.9%)
- Andrade's recent matches have been close, with several three-set battles
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndres Andrade +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are closely matched and Andrade's matches tend to be longer, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 average games per match 21.4, Andrade 23.5
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (52.8% vs 50.8%)
- Andrade's last 15 matches average 116.5 minutes, suggesting longer matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given the players' similar serve stats and Andrade's tendency for close sets.
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 average games per set 5.3, Andrade 4.9
- Andrade's recent matches have featured several tiebreaks and close sets
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pacheco Mendez's stronger first serve and recent hard-court form give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Pacheco Mendez first set win conversion career 82%, Andrade 88%
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 first serve points won 74.4%, Andrade 69.6%
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 hard first serve points won 73.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of the match and Andrade's recent tiebreak history, a tiebreak is likely.
- Pacheco Mendez career tiebreak win percentage 41%, Andrade 55%
- Andrade has played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pacheco Mendez's higher ace rate and strong first serve should push the total aces over 7.5.
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 aces per match 4.5, Andrade 2.9
- Combined average aces per match 7.4
- Pacheco Mendez has a higher first serve points won percentage
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 6 double faults combined, making over 6.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Pacheco Mendez last 15 double faults per match 2.8, Andrade 3.8
- Combined average double faults per match 6.6
- Andrade has a higher double fault rate on hard courts (3.6 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#510Miguel Tobon 6-3 6-3#602Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 6-4 6-4#499Paul Jubb 6-4 6-3#50Sebastian Baez

7-6(5) 6-2#144Tomas Barrios Vera

6-4 7-6(7)#581Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-3#655Roger Pascual Ferra

6-3 6-2#47Denis Shapovalov

6-7(4) 7-5 6-2#87Sho Shimabukuro

6-4 6-3#459Felipe Meligeni Alves

2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5)#459Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-2 6-2—Segundo Goity Zapico

5-7 6-2 6-4#641Bruno Fernandez

6-4 6-3#389Mees Rottgering

6-4 6-1#465Juan Alejandro Hernandez

Andres Andrade

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#650Max Purcell 6-4 6-2#351Ivan Marrero Curbelo 6-4 7-6(5)#342Edward Winter

3-6 6-3 6-2#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 6-3#217Liam Draxl

4-6 7-5 7-6(2)#165Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-7(5) 7-5#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-3#158Gauthier Onclin

6-3 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-3#215Braden Shick

7-5 3-6 6-1#130Alexei Popyrin

7-6(4) 6-1#253Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 4-6 6-3#221Colton Smith

6-2 1-6 7-5—Ammar Elamin

7-5 7-5#441Timo Legout

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RMRodrigo Pacheco MendezMendez

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Andres AndradeAndradeAA

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez carries the stronger recent form — Andres Andrade's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1559.7%+2.3pp57.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1574.4%+4.8pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1557.5%+9.4pp48.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.5+1.62.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.81.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.9%+1.9pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1535.7%+12.6pp48.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1570.3%+22.9pp47.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.8%+2.0pp50.8%

Serve · 5–0

59.7%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp57.4%

74.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.8pp69.6%

57.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+9.4pp48.1%

4.5Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.62.9

2.8Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.9pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

35.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+12.6pp48.3%

70.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+22.9pp47.4%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp50.8%