JamaicaKingston - JamaicaFinished

Predictions graded

Ivan Marrero Curbelo #360Spain0Andres Andrade #251Ecuador2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Wed 26 Aug 2026, 21:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndres Andrade · 109 places

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

Spanish right-hander born 27 September 1998. The ITF listed him at a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 369 on 20 July 2026; no reliable source from this search established a preferred surface or an active injury concern.

Current ranking: #360
Peak ranking: #369 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

A 27-year-old Ecuadorian right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 210 on 2026-05-18 and is currently ranked No. 251.

Current ranking: #251
Peak ranking: #210 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Marrero Curbelo's dominant recent form (12-3) and hard-court consistency make him a strong value underdog against Andrade (6-9).

The market heavily favors Andrade at 1.25, but the true probability is much closer, giving Marrero Curbelo at 3.50 a significant edge. Back Marrero Curbelo to win the match and the first set.

Context

Last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%) vs Andrade's 6-9 (40%).
- Last 15 hard-court record: 12-3 (80%) vs Andrade's 5-5 (50%).
- Marrero Curbelo has won 68.6% of sets in his last 15 matches, compared to Andrade's 44.4%.
Andrade's last 10 hard-court record is 5-5, with a 50% sets-won rate.
- He has lost to players ranked 155, 165, 184, and 215 in recent weeks.
- His total points won percentage on hard courts is 51.0%, only slightly above average.
Marrero Curbelo's total points won: 53.2% vs Andrade's 49.9%.
- Marrero Curbelo's return points won: 42.9% vs Andrade's 41.3%.
- Marrero Curbelo's first-serve points won: 68.2% vs Andrade's 68.3% (nearly equal).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.50
The read
Marrero Curbelo's superior recent form and hard-court consistency outweigh the older H2H loss, giving him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%) vs Andrade's 6-9 (40%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: 12-3 (80%) vs Andrade's 5-5 (50%)
- Last 15 total points won: 53.2% vs Andrade's 49.9%
- H2H: Andrade won 6-3 6-0 in March 2024, but Marrero Curbelo has improved since
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and both players' tendency to play longer matches support a total games over 21.5.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 average games per match: 21.1
- Andrade last 15 average games per match: 23.9
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Marrero Curbelo's strong recent set-winning percentage and overall form make him the likely first-set winner.
- Marrero Curbelo first-set win conversion career: 85% vs Andrade's 88%
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 sets won: 68.6% vs Andrade's 44.4%
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 first-serve points won: 68.2% vs Andrade's 68.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andrade's higher ace rate and the potential for a three-set match push the total aces over 4.5.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 aces per match: 1.2
- Andrade last 15 aces per match: 3.1
- Combined average aces per match: 4.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 6.5 total double faults likely.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 double faults per match: 3.2
- Andrade last 15 double faults per match: 4.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Andrade is heavily favored but recent form and surface-specific stats suggest the price is too short.

Prediction history

Ivan Marrero Curbelo has been highly reliable when projected to win

Ivan Marrero Curbelo has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent win predictions. His average estimated probability was 71%, with an expected 2.8 fulfilled predictions, so he slightly outperformed expectation. The only miss came as an away underdog at 72% probability, while all three wins included two home victories and one away win.

Recent evidence for Ivan Marrero Curbelo4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#222Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·72%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#222Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

72%probability

Alejandro Moro Canas won

Missed

21 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-0#332Facundo Mena

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·62%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-0#332Facundo Mena

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

62%probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo won

Matched

20 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#376Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-1#504Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#376Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-1#504Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

72%probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo won

Matched

6 May·Brazzaville - Republic of the Congo

#696Matteo Covato0-2#481Ivan Marrero Curbelo

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·78%

Matched

6 May 2026

Brazzaville - Republic of the Congo

#696Matteo Covato0-2#481Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

78%probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 6-0Ivan Marrero Curbelo#351vAndres Andrade#243Mar 14, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

12W 3L

3-6 7-5 6-2#383Blaise Bicknell

6-4 6-4#768Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-2 4-6 6-3—Lev Seidman

6-3 6-3#338Mathys Erhard

2-6 7-6(4) 6-1#253Maks Kasnikowski

6-1 3-6 6-3#554Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#235Alejandro Moro Canas

6-4 6-3#345Facundo Mena

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#427Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-3—Enrique Collar

6-3 6-3#777Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-3#616Nicolas Tepmahc

6-3 6-2—Volodymyr Iakubenko

6-1 6-0—Rafael Giotis

6-4 4-1 ret.—Laurence Teunissen

Andres Andrade

6W 9L

6-4 7-6(5)#342Edward Winter

3-6 6-3 6-2#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 6-3#217Liam Draxl

4-6 7-5 7-6(2)#165Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3#158Gauthier Onclin

6-3 6-7(5) 7-5#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-3#215Braden Shick

7-5 3-6 6-1#130Alexei Popyrin

7-6(4) 6-1#253Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 4-6 6-3#221Colton Smith

6-2 1-6 7-5—Ammar Elamin

7-5 7-5#441Timo Legout

7-6(4) 6-4#75Jan Choinski

6-4 6-4#166Marco Cecchinato

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ICIvan Marrero CurbeloCurbelo

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Andres AndradeAndradeAA

Ivan Marrero Curbelo carries the stronger recent form — Andres Andrade's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.9%+6.3pp58.6%

1st Serve Won68.2%—68.3%

2nd Serve Won55.6%+9.2pp46.4%

Aces / Match1.2+1.93.1

Double Faults / Match3.20.9 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.9%+1.6pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.3%+4.7pp47.0%

Break Pts Saved58.8%+11.7pp47.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+3.3pp49.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

64.9%1st Serve In+6.3pp58.6%

68.2%1st Serve Won—68.3%

55.6%2nd Serve Won+9.2pp46.4%

1.2Aces / Match+1.93.1

3.2Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

42.9%Return Pts Won+1.6pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

42.3%Break Pts Converted+4.7pp47.0%

58.8%Break Pts Saved+11.7pp47.1%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+3.3pp49.9%

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Andres Andrade

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 1 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Andres Andrade @ 1.25

Head-to-Head

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Andres Andrade

Stat Battle