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Predictions graded

Kristina Liutova #129Russia2Martyna Kubka #192Poland0

Sets 6-4 · 6-0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 15:02 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKristina Liutova · 63 places

Kristina Liutova

Russia

A 16-year-old Russian player who won the WTA Memphis title in August 2026 during her tour-level debut. Reliable public profile data for career-high ranking, handedness and height was not located in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 16
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Martyna Kubka

Poland

Reached career-high No. 185 on 20 July 2026 and is No. 192 on the 3 August list. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #192
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 15:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Liutova's superior recent form and return game make her the likely winner, but the odds on her to win outright are too short.

The best betting value is on over 21.5 total games, as both players have been involved in high-game-count matches. Kubka's strong serve could keep the match competitive, but Liutova's consistency should prevail.

Context

Liutova last15 overall record 14-1 (93.3%) vs Kubka 12-3 (80%).
- Liutova last15 hard record 14-1, Kubka last15 hard record 9-2.
- Liutova return points won 49.1% vs Kubka 45.3% overall.
- Liutova ranking 125 vs Kubka 182.
Kubka last15 aces per match 6.3 vs Liutova 0.7.
- Kubka last15 first serve points won 67.1% vs Liutova 61.7%.
- Kubka last15 break points saved 59% vs Liutova 50.5%.
Liutova beat Lola Radivojevic 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 in Q2 on 27 August.
- Kubka beat Annika Penickova 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-2 in Q1 on 25 August.
- Both matches lasted over two hours, adding workload before this final round.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kristina Liutova

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Liutova's superior recent form and return game on hard courts give her a clear edge in this final qualifying round.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Liutova's superior recent form and return game on hard courts give her a clear edge in this final qualifying round.
- Liutova last15 overall record 14-1 (93.3%) vs Kubka 12-3 (80%)
- Liutova last15 hard record 14-1, Kubka last15 hard record 9-2
- Liutova return points won 49.1% vs Kubka 45.3% overall
- Liutova ranking 125 vs Kubka 182
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKristina LiutovaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have been involved in competitive matches with high game counts, suggesting a longer contest.
- Liutova last15 average 22.5 games per match (338 games / 15 matches)
- Kubka last15 average 23.2 games per match (348 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have shown tight first sets, with many going to 10 or more games.
- Liutova recent first sets: 6-2, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(2), 6-3, 2-6, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6(2), 6-2
- Kubka recent first sets: 6-3, 6-7(5), 5-7, 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(4)
- Combined first set average games around 10
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Liutova's strong return game and high first-set conversion rate make her likely to start fast.
- Liutova first set win conversion 95% career
- Liutova last15 first serve points won 61.7% vs Kubka 67.1%
- Liutova last15 return points won 49.1% vs Kubka 45.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKristina LiutovaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kubka's strong serve is likely to produce a high ace count, pushing the total over.
- Kubka last15 aces per match 6.3
- Liutova last15 aces per match 0.7
- Kubka career aces 1409 in 361 matches (3.9 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 2-3 double faults per match, making over 4.5 plausible.
- Liutova last15 double faults per match 2.7
- Kubka last15 double faults per match 2.1
- Combined average 4.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Kristina Liutova

14W 1L

6-2 5-7 6-4#150Lola Radivojevic 6-4 4-6 6-2#163Tatiana Prozorova

1-6 6-1 6-3#90Darja Vidmanova

7-5 6-1#115Elvina Kalieva

6-3 6-4#64Caty McNally

3-6 6-3 6-3#75Maya Joint

7-6(2) 4-6 5-4 ret.#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 2-6 7-6(4)#581Maria Kozyreva

6-2 6-0#119Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-1#454Sofia Johnson

6-1 6-1#346Malaika Rapolu

6-4 6-3#425Reese Brantmeier

6-2 6-4#231Whitney Osuigwe

7-6(2) 7-5#368Eryn Cayetano

6-2 6-1#248Carolyn Ansari

Martyna Kubka

12W 3L

6-3 6-2#133Marina Bassols Ribera 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#569Annika Penickova

7-5 6-4#204Mona Barthel

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#171Teodora Kostovic

5-7 6-3 6-3#238Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 4-6 6-4#337Kira Pavlova

4-6 6-1 7-5#262Han Shi

6-2 6-2#805Chloe Noel

6-2 6-0—Jimena Gomez

6-4 6-3#261Valentina Ryser

6-1 7-5#718Anastasia Bertacchi

6-1 6-1—Georgina Hays

6-4 6-2—Anna Shkutova

3-6 6-4 6-1#179Yeon Woo Ku

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#67Alina Korneeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KLKristina LiutovaLiutova

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Martyna KubkaKubkaMK

Martyna Kubka carries the stronger recent form — Kristina Liutova's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1570.2%+5.0pp65.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1561.7%+5.4pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1549.1%+2.3pp51.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/150.7+5.66.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.70.6 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1549.1%+3.8pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1553.0%+8.7pp44.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1550.5%+8.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1553.3%—53.3%

Serve · 1–4

70.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+5.0pp65.2%

61.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+5.4pp67.1%

49.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+2.3pp51.4%

0.7Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+5.66.3

2.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.6 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

49.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.8pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

53.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+8.7pp44.3%

50.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+8.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—53.3%