United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Martyna Kubka #192Poland2Annika Penickova #674United States1

Sets 6-7 · 6-4 · 6-2Tue 25 Aug 2026, 18:20 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartyna Kubka · 482 places

Martyna Kubka

Poland

Reached career-high No. 185 on 20 July 2026 and is No. 192 on the 3 August list. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #192
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

George Lazarov

United States

Born 14 March 2005 and represents Bulgaria. Reliable public ranking and career-high details were unavailable; he reached this Plovdiv main draw through qualifying.

Current ranking: #674
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 16:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Kubka is a strong favorite due to her higher ranking, better serve, and superior hard-court form.

The best value bets are Kubka to win at 1.40 and over 19.5 total games at 1.73. Penickova's serve struggles may lead to more double faults, but she could keep the match competitive.

Context

Kubka wins 68.9% of first-serve points in her last 15 matches, compared to Penickova's 57.8%.
- Kubka averages 5.8 aces per match, while Penickova averages only 1.9.
- Penickova averages 3.3 double faults per match, which may give Kubka extra break opportunities.
Penickova's hard-court record in her last 15 matches is 10-4 (71.4%).
- She wins 49.3% of return points, which is higher than Kubka's 44.7%.
- Her recent wins include victories over players ranked 349, 389, and 445.
Kubka lost to Mona Barthel (ranked 208) on August 5 and to Yeon Woo Ku (ranked 176) on June 19.
- Penickova is ranked 674, far below those opponents.
- Kubka's overall recent form is strong with an 11-4 record in her last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Kubka's superior ranking, stronger recent hard-court form, and better serve metrics give her a clear edge in this Bo3 qualifying match.
- Kubka last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Penickova 10-5 (66.7%)
- Kubka hard-court last 15 record 8-2 (80%), Penickova hard-court 10-4 (71.4%)
- Kubka ranking 183 vs Penickova 674
- Kubka first serve points won 68.9% vs Penickova 57.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartyna KubkaEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with moderate game totals, suggesting a match that could exceed 19.5 games.
- Kubka last 15 average 104.8 minutes per match
- Penickova last 15 average 113.8 minutes per match
- Kubka last 15 games won 56.6%, Penickova 52.5%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first sets for both players average over 9 games, supporting an over 8.5 line in set 1.
- Kubka last 15 first set average games 9.2
- Penickova last 15 first set average games 9.1
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kubka's strong first-set conversion rate and superior first-serve effectiveness make her likely to take the opening set.
- Kubka first set win conversion 85% career
- Kubka last 15 first serve points won 68.9%
- Penickova first serve points won 57.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMartyna KubkaEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Penickova's high double fault rate combined with Kubka's moderate rate makes over 4.5 double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Kubka last 15 double faults per match 1.8
- Penickova last 15 double faults per match 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match 5.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kubka's high ace rate alone nearly covers the line, and Penickova adds a small contribution, making over 6.5 aces likely.
- Kubka last 15 aces per match 5.8
- Penickova last 15 aces per match 1.9
- Combined average aces per match 7.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Martyna Kubka

11W 4L

7-5 6-4#208Mona Barthel

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#150Teodora Kostovic

5-7 6-3 6-3#237Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 4-6 6-4#347Kira Pavlova

4-6 6-1 7-5#264Han Shi

6-2 6-2#812Chloe Noel

6-2 6-0—Jimena Gomez

6-4 6-3#263Valentina Ryser

6-1 7-5#717Anastasia Bertacchi

6-1 6-1—Georgina Hays

6-4 6-2—Anna Shkutova

3-6 6-4 6-1#176Yeon Woo Ku

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#75Alina Korneeva

6-3 4-0 ret.#221Aliona Falei

6-4 6-3#160Polina Iatcenko

Annika Penickova

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#525Dana Guzman

6-1 7-5#777Anne Christine Lutkemeyer

6-4 6-4#389Jia-Jing Lu

3-6 7-5 6-2#793Mayu Crossley

2-6 6-3 3-0 ret.—Carlota Moreno

6-3 6-4#801Piper Charney

6-2 2-6 6-4#349Angelina Voloshchuk

6-4 6-3#445Ekaterina Khayrutdinova

6-3 6-1#513Carmen Andreea Herea

6-2 1-6 7-6(4)—Ava Catanzarite

6-2 6-3#898Carolina Gomez

1-6 7-5 7-6(2)#482Martina Okalova

6-2 6-1—Xin Tong Wang

6-1 2-6 6-1—Ava Catanzarite

7-6(3) 6-1#611Carson Tanguilig

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMartyna KubkaKubka

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Annika PenickovaPenickovaAP

Martyna Kubka carries the stronger recent form — Annika Penickova's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In67.2%+3.1pp64.1%

1st Serve Won68.9%+11.1pp57.8%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+5.8pp45.4%

Aces / Match5.8+3.91.9

Double Faults / Match1.81.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.7%+4.6pp49.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.9%+4.5pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved59.8%+15.4pp44.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+2.3pp51.3%

Serve · 5–0

67.2%1st Serve In+3.1pp64.1%

68.9%1st Serve Won+11.1pp57.8%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp45.4%

5.8Aces / Match+3.91.9

1.8Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

44.7%Return Pts Won+4.6pp49.3%

Pressure · 1–1

39.9%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp44.4%

59.8%Break Pts Saved+15.4pp44.4%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+2.3pp51.3%