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Predictions graded

Martyna Kubka #192Poland2Marina Bassols Ribera #134Spain0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Wed 26 Aug 2026, 21:08 Predictions gradedQ2Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarina Bassols Ribera · 58 places

Martyna Kubka

Poland

Reached career-high No. 185 on 20 July 2026 and is No. 192 on the 3 August list. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #192
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Marina Bassols Ribera

Spain

Spanish right-hander born 13 December 1999. Reached a career-high No. 105 in February 2024; the WTA profile lists hard court as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #134
Peak ranking: #105 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 165 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 15:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Kubka's dominant hard-court form and Bassols Ribera's poor surface record make Kubka the clear favorite.

Bet Kubka to win the match (edge 13.2 points) and to win the first set (edge 7.6 points). Avoid the 2-0 set betting market due to Kubka's tendency to drop sets.

Context

Kubka last-15 hard-court record: 9-2 (81.8% win rate).
- Bassols Ribera last-15 hard-court record: 1-3 (25% win rate).
- Kubka's recent hard-court wins include three-set battles, showing she can close out matches even when pushed.
- Bassols Ribera's only hard-court win in this window came in the previous qualifying round against Darya Astakhova.
Bassols Ribera last-15 hard-court second-serve points won: 32.9% (28/85).
- Bassols Ribera last-15 hard-court double faults per match: 7.3 (22 in 3 matches).
- Kubka last-15 hard-court return points won: 44.7%, which should pressure Bassols Ribera's second serve.
- Kubka's own second-serve points won on hard courts is 50.8%, a much more stable number.
Kubka defeated Annika Penickova 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2 in the first qualifying round on 25 August.
- Bassols Ribera's first-round match was also at Flushing Meadows, but she played on the same day, so both have one match on these courts.
- The intel source confirms Kubka's first-round win and lists her as facing Bassols Ribera next.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Kubka's dominant recent hard-court form and Bassols Ribera's poor hard-court results give Kubka a clear surface-fit and recent-form edge.
- Kubka last-15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Hard record 9-2 (81.8%)
- Bassols Ribera last-15 Hard record 1-3 (25%), overall 7-8 (46.7%)
- Kubka last-15 Hard return points won 44.7%, Bassols Ribera Hard return 41.8%
- Kubka last-15 Hard second serve points won 50.8%, Bassols Ribera Hard second serve 32.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartyna KubkaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Kubka's edge, Bassols Ribera's competitive return game and Kubka's tendency for long matches support a higher total games line.
- Kubka last-15 Hard average duration 118.1 minutes, Bassols Ribera Hard 116.6 minutes
- Kubka last-15 Hard games won 56.6%, Bassols Ribera Hard games won 44.6%
- Both players' recent hard-court matches often go to three sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' recent hard-court set scores.
- Kubka last-15 Hard first set average games 9.8 (from recent matches)
- Bassols Ribera last-15 Hard first set average games 9.3
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness on hard courts
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Kubka's stronger hard-court serve and set-winning rate make her likely to take the opening set.
- Kubka last-15 Hard first set win conversion 85% career, recent Hard record 9-2
- Bassols Ribera last-15 Hard sets won 36.4% (4/11)
- Kubka last-15 Hard first serve points won 67.2%, Bassols Ribera Hard first serve 62.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartyna KubkaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bassols Ribera's high double fault rate on hard courts makes the over on total double faults likely.
- Bassols Ribera last-15 Hard double faults per match 7.3
- Kubka last-15 Hard double faults per match 2.1
- Bassols Ribera's second serve is vulnerable, leading to more double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kubka's high ace count alone should push the total over 5.5, with Bassols Ribera contributing almost none.
- Kubka last-15 overall aces per match 6.1, Hard aces per match 5.2
- Bassols Ribera last-15 overall aces per match 0.1, Hard aces per match 0.0
- Kubka's serve is a major weapon, while Bassols Ribera rarely hits aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Martyna Kubka

12W 3L

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#569Annika Penickova

7-5 6-4#204Mona Barthel

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#171Teodora Kostovic

5-7 6-3 6-3#238Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 4-6 6-4#337Kira Pavlova

4-6 6-1 7-5#262Han Shi

6-2 6-2#805Chloe Noel

6-2 6-0—Jimena Gomez

6-4 6-3#261Valentina Ryser

6-1 7-5#718Anastasia Bertacchi

6-1 6-1—Georgina Hays

6-4 6-2—Anna Shkutova

3-6 6-4 6-1#179Yeon Woo Ku

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#67Alina Korneeva

6-3 4-0 ret.#222Aliona Falei

Marina Bassols Ribera

7W 8L

4-6 7-6(0) 6-3#226Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-3#86Sinja Kraus

6-0 2-6 6-3#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-2 3-6 6-4#90Darja Vidmanova

3-6 6-4 6-1#86Sinja Kraus

6-2 6-1#219Maria Lourdes Carle

0-6 6-1 6-1#203Arantxa Rus

6-2 6-1#250Anna-Lena Friedsam

6-3 6-2#83Paula Badosa Gibert

3-6 6-1 6-1#187Robin Montgomery

3-6 6-1 4-0 ret.#82Xiyu Wang

6-7(10) 6-2 7-6(7)#150Lola Radivojevic

6-3 2-6 7-5#109Darja Semenistaja

3-6 6-1 6-1#5Mirra Andreeva

6-3 6-4#84Emiliana Arango

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMartyna KubkaKubka

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Marina Bassols RiberaRiberaMR

Martyna Kubka carries the stronger recent form — Marina Bassols Ribera's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1566.6%+3.3pp69.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1569.0%+10.1pp58.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1551.2%+6.7pp44.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/156.1+6.00.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.92.5 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1545.4%—45.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1540.4%+8.0pp48.4%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1560.9%+9.0pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1554.0%+4.0pp50.0%

Serve · 4–1

66.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+3.3pp69.9%

69.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+10.1pp58.9%

51.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+6.7pp44.5%

6.1Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+6.00.1

1.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.5 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

45.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—45.5%

Pressure · 1–1

40.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+8.0pp48.4%

60.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+9.0pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

54.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+4.0pp50.0%