GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Cezar Cretu #260Romania2Miguel Damas #302Spain0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Wed 26 Aug 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCezar Cretu · 42 places

Cezar Cretu

Romania

Cretu reached a career-high No. 260 on 3 August 2026. He is a 25-year-old right-hander with a two-handed backhand and is 188 cm tall.

Current ranking: #260
Peak ranking: #260 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Miguel Damas

Spain

Spanish player, born 21 December 1999, with most recorded career wins on clay. His documented singles peak is No. 257 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #302
Peak ranking: #257 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 208 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 22:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Cretu is a slight favorite on paper, but the odds overestimate his chances; the match is likely to be competitive.

Best value lies in over 21.5 total games and over 4.5 total double faults. Avoid betting on Cretu at 1.36 due to poor value.

Context

Damas won 6-3, 6-4 against Marko Topo in the first round at Augsburg on 24 August.
- Cretu's last match was a 6-2, 6-0 win over Niels Mcdonald on 25 August, but at a different tournament.
- Damas has already adjusted to the Augsburg clay conditions, which may give him a slight early edge.
Cretu last15 overall: 6-9 record, 47.6% games won, 49.1% total points won.
- Damas last15 overall: 6-9 record, 45.8% games won, 48.3% total points won.
- Both players have a 40% win rate on clay in their last 15 matches.
Damas last15 double faults per match: 3.1 (47 in 15 matches).
- Cretu last15 double faults per match: 2.1 (31 in 15 matches).
- Damas career double faults per match: 2.2, indicating a recent uptick.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Cezar Cretu

1.36fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

The model's 55% estimate is well below the 73.5% implied by the odds, indicating no value on Cretu despite his slight edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Cretu has a slight edge in recent points/games won and career clay pedigree, making him a modest favorite in a close matchup.
- Cretu last15 overall: 6-9 record, 47.6% games won, 49.1% total points won
- Damas last15 overall: 6-9 record, 45.8% games won, 48.3% total points won
- Cretu career clay win% 67.5 vs Damas 57.6; both have 40% win rate in last 15 on clay
- Cretu ranking 289 vs Damas 313
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCezar CretuEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The closely matched recent form and similar games-per-match averages point to a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 total games.
- Cretu last15 average 21.1 games per match; Damas 20.7
- Both players have 40% win rate in last 15, suggesting competitive matches
- Damas last15 average duration 113.1 minutes vs Cretu 103.8
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given similar serve stats and recent tight opening sets.
- Cretu last15 first-set average 9.4 games; Damas 9.3
- Both players have similar first-serve percentages around 65%
- Damas has played several tight first sets recently (7-5, 7-6)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cretu's stronger first-serve performance and higher first-set conversion rate give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Cretu first-set win conversion career 92% vs Damas 85%
- Cretu last15 first-serve points won 63.8% vs Damas 58.3%
- Both players have similar recent form with 6-9 records
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCezar CretuEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 2 double faults per match, making over 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Cretu last15 double faults per match 2.1; Damas 3.1
- Combined average double faults per match 5.2
- Damas career double faults 1087 in 493 matches (2.2 per match); Cretu 967 in 480 (2.0 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Cretu is heavily favored by the market, but his recent form and surface-specific stats do not support such a high probability.

Previous match context available

Cezar Cretu

6W 9L

6-2 6-0#490Niels Mcdonald

6-1 6-2#211Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-4#348Thomas Faurel

6-1 5-7 6-4#274Marvin Moeller

6-0 6-3#330Anton Matusevich

6-2 6-4#234Sumit Nagal

2-6 7-5 6-3#128Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-4#504Alex Marti Pujolras

7-5 6-1#409Olle Wallin

6-3 4-6 6-1#234Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#490Niels Mcdonald

6-2 6-3#281Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-3#328Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-4#379Jacopo Vasami

6-7(1) 6-3 6-3#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

Miguel Damas

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#339Marko Topo

7-5 6-1#216Kimmer Coppejans

2-6 6-3 6-0#555Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-1 6-0#424Mika Brunold

6-3 6-3#61Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

3-6 7-6(6) 6-4#348Thomas Faurel

6-4 6-1#787Nikola Slavic

7-6(3) 6-3#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-1 7-6(6)#372Manas Manoj Dhamne

7-5 2-6 6-2#240Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-0 6-4—Harold Huens

6-3 6-4#190Diego Dedura

6-2 3-6 7-6(3)#419Benjamin Hassan

6-2 6-3#209Roberto Carballes Baena

6-1 6-4#192David Jorda Sanchis

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCCezar CretuCretu

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Miguel DamasDamasMD

Cezar Cretu carries the stronger recent form — Miguel Damas's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.1%—64.9%

1st Serve Won63.8%+5.5pp58.3%

2nd Serve Won45.6%+2.4pp48.0%

Aces / Match1.9+0.91.0

Double Faults / Match2.11.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.0%—40.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted42.2%+5.3pp47.5%

Break Pts Saved44.4%+13.7pp58.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.1%+0.8pp48.3%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

65.1%1st Serve In—64.9%

63.8%1st Serve Won+5.5pp58.3%

45.6%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp48.0%

1.9Aces / Match+0.91.0

2.1Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.0%Return Pts Won—40.5%

Pressure · 0–2

42.2%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp47.5%

44.4%Break Pts Saved+13.7pp58.1%

Points · 1–0

49.1%Total Pts Won+0.8pp48.3%