GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Cezar Cretu #260Romania2Niels Mcdonald #526Germany0

Sets 6-2 · 6-0Tue 25 Aug 2026, 14:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCezar Cretu · 266 places

Cezar Cretu

Romania

Cretu reached a career-high No. 260 on 3 August 2026. He is a 25-year-old right-hander with a two-handed backhand and is 188 cm tall.

Current ranking: #260
Peak ranking: #260 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Niels Mcdonald

Germany

An 18-year-old German right-hander, 191 cm, listed at No. 526 in the supplied Tennis API data. Public profiles returned inconsistent ATP ranking histories, so the career high and preferred surface are left unset.

Current ranking: #526
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 15:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Cretu's superior clay record, higher ranking, and previous H2H win give him a moderate edge over Mcdonald despite worse recent form.

Back Cretu to win at 1.85 odds, with an estimated 62% probability versus the implied 54.1%. The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games also worth considering.

Context

Cretu's last 15 record is 6-9, with losses to players ranked 309, 327, 357, 239, 133, 415, 239, 371, and 157.
- His most recent match was a 6-1 6-2 loss to Maxim Mrva (ranked 309) on 19 August.
- He has lost four of his last five matches, with the only win coming against Thomas Faurel (ranked 331).
Mcdonald's wins in the last 15 came against players ranked 378, 435, 562, 255, 198, 260, and 280.
- His losses were mostly to higher-ranked opponents: 327, 179, 134, 181, 87, 411, and 266 (Cretu).
- He lost to Cretu 6-3 6-4 in their only meeting on 25 June 2026.
Cretu's career clay record is 284 wins and 137 losses (67.4%).
- Mcdonald's career clay record is 29 wins and 25 losses (53.3%).
- Cretu won their only H2H match on clay 6-3 6-4 in June 2026.
Mcdonald's double faults per match in last 15: 3.9 vs Cretu's 2.3.
- Mcdonald's second serve points won in last 15: 45.2% vs Cretu's 44.5%.
- In their H2H, Mcdonald had 3 double faults and won only 35% of second serve points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Cretu's higher ranking, superior clay pedigree, and direct H2H win give him a moderate edge despite slightly worse recent form.
- Cretu won the only H2H meeting 6-3 6-4 on clay in June 2026.
- Cretu has a 6-9 record in last 15 matches, while Mcdonald is 8-7.
- Cretu's career clay win percentage is 67.4% vs Mcdonald's 53.3%.
- Cretu's ranking is 266 vs Mcdonald's 531.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCezar CretuEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match averages exceed 21.5 games, suggesting a competitive match likely to go over the total.
- Cretu's last 15 matches average 21.9 games per match.
- Mcdonald's last 15 matches average 22.1 games per match.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 47-49%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent first-set game averages near the 9.5 line.
- Cretu's recent first sets have averaged 9.3 games.
- Mcdonald's recent first sets have averaged 9.7 games.
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cretu's strong first-set conversion rate and H2H first-set win support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Cretu won the first set 6-3 in their only H2H match.
- Cretu's first set win conversion is 92% career vs Mcdonald's 77%.
- Cretu's last 15 first serve points won is 63% vs Mcdonald's 66.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCezar CretuEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The relatively low frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches suggests a tiebreak is less likely than not.
- Cretu has played 2 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Mcdonald has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 47-54%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is below 5.5, but variance in serving could push the total over in a competitive match.
- Cretu averages 1.7 aces per match in last 15.
- Mcdonald averages 2.4 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 4.1 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mcdonald's high double fault rate and Cretu's moderate rate combine to make over 5.5 double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Cretu averages 2.3 double faults per match in last 15.
- Mcdonald averages 3.9 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 6.2 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Cezar Cretu has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Cezar Cretu has fulfilled 9 of 14 win projections, a 64% success rate. The average estimated probability was 64.7%, with an expected 9.1 fulfilled predictions, so actual results align closely with expectations. All five misses were losses, with no draws or subject wins, indicating that when he fails to win, he loses outright.

Recent evidence for Cezar Cretu14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#262Cezar Cretu0-2#373Anton Matusevich

BetBugsCezar Cretu to win·55%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#262Cezar Cretu0-2#373Anton Matusevich

Cezar Cretu to win

55%probability

Anton Matusevich won

Missed

7 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#461Alex Marti Pujolras0-2#272Cezar Cretu

BetBugsCezar Cretu to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#461Alex Marti Pujolras0-2#272Cezar Cretu

Cezar Cretu to win

62%probability

Cezar Cretu won

Matched

30 Jun·Brasov - Romania

#272Cezar Cretu0-2#447Olle Wallin

BetBugsCezar Cretu to win·72%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Brasov - Romania

#272Cezar Cretu0-2#447Olle Wallin

Cezar Cretu to win

72%probability

Olle Wallin won

Missed

26 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#285Sumit Nagal2-1#287Cezar Cretu

BetBugsCezar Cretu to win·62%

Missed

26 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#285Sumit Nagal2-1#287Cezar Cretu

Cezar Cretu to win

62%probability

Sumit Nagal won

Missed

25 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#287Cezar Cretu2-0#620Niels Mcdonald

BetBugsCezar Cretu to win·72%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#287Cezar Cretu2-0#620Niels Mcdonald

Cezar Cretu to win

72%probability

Cezar Cretu won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-4Cezar Cretu#266vNiels Mcdonald#531Jun 25, 2026

1 total meetings

Cezar Cretu

6W 9L

6-1 6-2#309Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-4#331Thomas Faurel

6-1 5-7 6-4#327Marvin Moeller

6-0 6-3#357Anton Matusevich

6-2 6-4#239Sumit Nagal

2-6 7-5 6-3#133Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-4#524Alex Marti Pujolras

7-5 6-1#415Olle Wallin

6-3 4-6 6-1#239Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#531Niels Mcdonald

6-2 6-3#283Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-3#290Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-4#371Jacopo Vasami

6-7(1) 6-3 6-3#157Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 4-6 6-2#512Radu Albot

Niels Mcdonald

8W 7L

6-4 6-0#327Marvin Moeller

4-6 6-3 6-4#378Eduardo Ribeiro

0-6 6-4 6-3#435Mika Petkovic

6-3 6-3#179Jerome Kym

7-6(3) 6-3#134Jurij Rodionov

6-3 7-6(4)#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-3 7-6(4)#181Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 6-2#87Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-4#255Martin Krumich

6-1 6-3#198Keegan Smith

7-5 6-1#411Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-3 6-4#266Cezar Cretu

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#222Francesco Passaro

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#260Michele Ribecai

7-6(5) 6-4#280Sandro Kopp

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCCezar CretuCretu

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Niels McdonaldMcdonaldNM

Cezar Cretu carries the stronger recent form — Niels Mcdonald's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.6%+5.2pp60.4%

1st Serve Won63.0%+3.5pp66.5%

2nd Serve Won44.5%—45.2%

Aces / Match1.7+0.72.4

Double Faults / Match2.31.6 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.4%+1.0pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.8%+5.3pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved44.5%+15.0pp59.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won48.9%—49.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.6%1st Serve In+5.2pp60.4%

63.0%1st Serve Won+3.5pp66.5%

44.5%2nd Serve Won—45.2%

1.7Aces / Match+0.72.4

2.3Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

41.4%Return Pts Won+1.0pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

43.8%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp38.5%

44.5%Break Pts Saved+15.0pp59.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.9%Total Pts Won—49.4%