GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Matthew William Donald #461Czechia0Benjamin Hassan #5142

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Mon 24 Aug 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatthew William Donald · 53 places

Matthew William Donald

Czechia

ITF lists Donald as a right-handed player whose preferred surface is grass. Public ranking records show a career-best No. 455 in July 2026; no current injury or decline narrative was identified.

Current ranking: #461
Peak ranking: #455 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Benjamin Hassan

Lebanese player born 4 February 1995. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 143 in June 2024; his recorded career match volume is strongest on clay.

Current ranking: #514
Peak ranking: #143 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Donald's superior return game and break conversion on clay give him a clear edge over Hassan, whose low first-serve percentage is a major weakness.

Back Donald to win at 2.10 odds, as the model sees a 10.4-point value edge. The match is likely to feature over 21.5 total games and over 6.5 total aces.

Context

Donald last 15 return points won: 44.2% vs Hassan 35.6%.
- Donald last 15 break points converted: 50.4% vs Hassan 44.4%.
- Hassan first serve in last 15: 52.2%, which exposes his second serve.
Hassan last 15 aces per match: 5.3 vs Donald 1.0.
- Hassan first-serve points won: 71.4% vs Donald 66.4%.
- Hassan has played tiebreaks in 4 of his last 15 matches.
Donald: one completed match, 2h13 on court.
- Hassan: one completed match, 2h05 on court.
- No verified current availability alerts for either player.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Donald's stronger recent return and break conversion on clay give him a structural edge over Hassan, whose lower first-serve percentage exposes his second serve.
- Donald last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Hassan 8-7 (53.3%)
- Donald last 15 clay record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Hassan 8-6 (57.1%)
- Donald last 15 return points won 44.2% vs Hassan 35.6%
- Donald last 15 break points converted 50.4% vs Hassan 44.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatthew William DonaldEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches trend toward longer contests, and Hassan's lower first-serve percentage often leads to extended rallies and more games.
- Donald last 15 average 21.3 games per match, Hassan 23.9
- Hassan last 15 clay average 24.3 games per match
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hassan's competitive game percentages and ability to force tiebreaks make him likely to stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.
- Hassan last 15 games won 48.5% vs Donald 56.6%
- Hassan last 15 clay games won 49.1% vs Donald 56.6%
- Hassan has kept matches close despite lower win percentage
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBenjamin Hassan +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hassan's first sets tend to be competitive, and his lower first-serve percentage can lead to more breaks and longer sets.
- Hassan last 15 first set average 10.1 games
- Donald last 15 first set average 9.3 games
- Hassan has played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Donald's higher first-serve percentage should give him more consistent starts, though Hassan's stronger first-serve points won keeps this a low-confidence lean.
- Donald first set win conversion career 88% vs Hassan 86%
- Donald last 15 first serve points won 66.4% vs Hassan 71.4%
- Hassan last 15 first serve in 52.2% vs Donald 68.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatthew William DonaldEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have a moderate rate of three-set matches on clay, making a deciding set a coin-flip proposition.
- Donald last 15 three-set matches: 5 of 15
- Hassan last 15 three-set matches: 6 of 15
- Hassan last 15 clay three-set matches: 6 of 14
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hassan's serve generates significantly more aces than Donald's, and his recent clay numbers support a high total even in a two-set match.
- Hassan last 15 aces per match 5.3, Donald 1.0
- Hassan career aces 2243 in 612 matches (3.7 per match)
- Hassan last 15 clay aces per match 5.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double-fault rates, and their combined recent averages exceed the 7.5 line.
- Donald last 15 double faults per match 4.7
- Hassan last 15 double faults per match 3.7
- Combined average 8.4 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Matthew William Donald

10W 5L

4-6 6-1 7-5#678Giorgio Tabacco

7-5 4-6 6-3#417Nerman Fatic

6-0 4-6 6-3#643Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

2-6 6-3 6-4#530Louis Wessels

6-3 6-4#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-2 6-3#617Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-2 6-4#610Lorenzo Bocchi

7-6(9) 6-3#415Olle Wallin

6-4 6-0—Christopher Thies

7-5 6-3#377Max Wiskandt

6-4 5-7 6-1#391Ioannis Xilas

6-4 6-2#573Adrian Oetzbach

6-1 6-2#697Nikolai Barsukov

6-4 6-2—Arian Barbic

6-1 6-2#109Francisco Comesana

Benjamin Hassan

8W 7L

7-5 6-7(5) 4-1 ret.#746Maximilian Marterer 6-1 2-6 6-2#336Dominic Stricker 3-6 3-2 ret.#195Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(2)#365Geoffrey Blancaneaux

3-6 6-1 6-4#280Sandro Kopp

7-6(4) 6-3#617Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-3 2-6 7-5#665Leo Raquillet

4-0 ret.—Flynn Thomas

6-3 6-4#512Radu Albot

1-6 6-4 6-4#239Sumit Nagal

6-2 3-6 7-6(3)#302Miguel Damas

6-3 4-6 6-2#467Daniel Siniakov

7-6(4) 6-2#524Alex Marti Pujolras

6-2 6-4#395Georgii Kravchenko

6-3 5-7 7-5#330Daniel Michalski

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatthew William DonaldDonald

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Benjamin HassanHassanBH

Matthew William Donald carries the stronger recent form — Benjamin Hassan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In68.5%+16.3pp52.2%

1st Serve Won66.4%+5.0pp71.4%

2nd Serve Won48.2%+4.0pp52.2%

Aces / Match1.0+4.35.3

Double Faults / Match4.71.0 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.2%+8.6pp35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.4%+6.0pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved62.4%+6.1pp56.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.2%+3.2pp49.0%

Serve · 1–4

68.5%1st Serve In+16.3pp52.2%

66.4%1st Serve Won+5.0pp71.4%

48.2%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp52.2%

1.0Aces / Match+4.35.3

4.7Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

44.2%Return Pts Won+8.6pp35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

50.4%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp44.4%

62.4%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp56.3%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won+3.2pp49.0%