United StatesATP US OpenFinished
Predictions gradedReached a career-high No. 49 on June 9, 2025. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; historical college injuries are not treated as a current availability issue.
Reached a career-high No. 49 in April 2023. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; no current-tournament availability concern surfaced in the requested searches.
Pre-match view
Fearnley is the likely winner based on form, ranking, and surface fit, but his odds are too short to back.
The match could be closer than expected, with Carballes Baena's competitiveness and Fearnley's double-fault issues keeping totals in play. Avoid heavy favorites and consider live betting or totals markets.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 62% · Market 84.7%
Fearnley's superior recent form, hard-court fit, and ranking edge make him the likely winner.
BetBugs 60% · Market 84.7%
Fearnley's strong first-set conversion and serve edge on hard courts support taking the opening set.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Fearnley's recent hard-court matches have been close, and Carballes Baena's clay-heavy form may not translate to a large handicap loss.
Jacob Fearnley has fulfilled 11 of 14 win projections, a 79% success rate. His average estimated probability was 60.6%, with an expected 8.5 wins, so he outperformed expectations by 2.5 wins. All three misses were losses, with no draws, and his current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 55–72%.
Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.
Last 15
9 core stats · 0 even
Roberto Carballes Baena carries the stronger recent form — Jacob Fearnley's route runs through serve.
