Taro Daniel #186Japan22 – 0Jacob Fearnley #110United Kingdom0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40

The read

Daniel's recent hard-court form and superior serve/return efficiency give him a slight edge over Fearnley, whose high double-fault rate is a vulnerability.

• Daniel last15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), Hard record 4-0 (100%)
• Daniel last15 Hard first-serve points won 73.4%, second-serve points won 57.9%
• Fearnley last15 Hard record 8-3 (72.7%), but double faults per match 5.0
• Daniel has won 4 straight matches this tournament, all on hard court

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Daniel's strong first-serve performance and break-point conversion on hard courts should help him take the opening set.

• Daniel last15 Hard first-serve points won 73.4%
• Daniel last15 Hard break points converted 61.5%
• Fearnley last15 Hard first-serve points won 74.8%, but second-serve points won only 50%
• Daniel has won first set in 3 of his last 4 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's high double-fault rate is the primary driver, making over 6.5 total double faults a strong possibility.

• Fearnley last15 double faults per match 5.5, Hard 5.0
• Daniel last15 double faults per match 1.9, Hard 2.0
• Combined average double faults per match on hard courts: 7.0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's strong ace count on hard courts, combined with Daniel's moderate ace rate, makes over 6.5 total aces likely.

• Daniel last15 aces per match 2.5, Hard 2.8
• Fearnley last15 aces per match 4.3, Hard 4.7
• Combined average aces per match on hard courts: 7.5