Kyrian Jacquet #130France11 – 2Taro Daniel #194Japan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Daniel's dominant recent clay form (12-3, 73.5% sets won) and superior return stats give him a clear edge over Jacquet, who has struggled on clay in the same window (3-2, 50% sets won, low break-point save rate).

• Taro Daniel has a 12-3 record in his last 15 matches, all on clay, with a 73.5% sets-won rate.
• Kyrian Jacquet is 3-2 on clay in his last 15, with a 50% sets-won rate and a 36% break-point save rate on the surface.
• Daniel's return points won on clay in the last 15 is 44.1%, significantly higher than Jacquet's 37.7%.
• Daniel's break-point conversion rate on clay is 48.7% vs Jacquet's 50%, but Daniel creates more opportunities with his return game.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With Daniel's consistent but not dominant scorelines and Jacquet's ability to push sets deep (three of his last five clay matches went over 21.5 games), the match is likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• In their two H2H matches, total games were 17 and 20, but both were on clay and Jacquet won easily; current form suggests a closer contest.
• Daniel's last 15 clay matches average 20.9 games per match, but his tighter matches (e.g., vs Van De Zandschulp, Royer) have gone over 21.5.
• Jacquet's clay matches in the last 15 average 22 games, with three of five going over 21.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players hold serve well early in matches on clay, and their recent first-set game averages point to a competitive opener likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• In Daniel's last 15 clay matches, the first set has averaged 9.7 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Jacquet's first sets on clay in the last 15 have averaged 10.2 games, with four of five going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 67-70% on clay, suggesting few early breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Daniel's strong first-set performance on clay (80% win rate) and solid serve numbers give him a high probability of taking the opening set against Jacquet, who has been broken early often on this surface.

• Daniel has won the first set in 11 of his last 15 matches (73.3%), while Jacquet has done so in 8 of 15 (53.3%).
• On clay in the last 15, Daniel's first-set win rate is 80% (12/15), compared to Jacquet's 40% (2/5).
• Daniel's first-serve points won on clay is 67.4%, and he saves 67.7% of break points, making him hard to break early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server on clay, and their combined ace counts consistently stay below 7.5, making the under a strong play.

• Daniel averages only 2.4 aces per match on clay in the last 15, with a max of 5 in any match.
• Jacquet averages 3.4 aces per match on clay in the last 15, with a max of 6.
• Combined, their average aces per match on clay is 5.8, well under 7.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Daniel's low double-fault rate and Jacquet's moderate numbers keep the combined total likely under 5.5, especially in a best-of-three format.

• Daniel averages 1.2 double faults per match on clay in the last 15, with a max of 3.
• Jacquet averages 3.4 double faults per match on clay, but his overall last-15 average is 3.1, and he has had matches with 1-2 double faults.
• Combined, their average double faults per match is 4.6, and only one of Daniel's last 15 matches exceeded 5.5 total double faults.