United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Michael Geerts #339Belgium2Radu Albot #512Moldova1

Sets 4-6 · 6-4 · 6-4Wed 19 Aug 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichael Geerts · 173 places

Michael Geerts

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 212 on 3 April 2023. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #339
Peak ranking: #212 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Radu Albot

Moldova

Albot reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 39 in August 2019. Official ITF profile data lists hard and clay as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #512
Peak ranking: #39 · 2019
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Hard, Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Radu Albot holds a form and return-game edge over Michael Geerts on hard courts, making him the value pick to win the match and the first set.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in the first set offering modest value. Avoid betting on over 2.5 sets, as the odds overestimate the likelihood of a deciding set.

Context

Albot's hard-court record in last 6: 4-2 (66.7%); Geerts in last 8: 3-5 (37.5%).
- Albot wins 41.5% of return points overall vs Geerts' 36.1%.
- Albot's first-serve percentage is 67.4% vs Geerts' 59.0%.
Geerts lost first set in 5 of last 8 hard-court matches.
- Albot won first set in 4 of last 6 hard-court matches.
- Geerts' first-serve points won on hard is 69.8%, which could keep sets tight if he starts well.
Albot played 3 sets in 3 of his last 6 hard-court matches.
- Geerts played 3 sets in 3 of his last 8 hard-court matches.
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Albot's superior recent hard-court form and return game give him the edge in this Bo3 match.
- Radu Albot last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Michael Geerts 7-8 (46.7%)
- Albot hard-court last 6 record 4-2 (66.7%), Geerts hard-court last 8 record 3-5 (37.5%)
- Albot return points won 41.5% overall vs Geerts 36.1%
- Albot first serve in 67.4% vs Geerts 59.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRadu AlbotEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline stats and recent three-set matches suggest a longer contest exceeding 21.5 games.
- Geerts average match duration 96.1 minutes, Albot 113.4 minutes in last 15
- Albot last 3 matches: 16, 16, 12 games; Geerts last match 22 games
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' first-set game averages near 10 and tiebreak tendencies support over 9.5 games.
- Geerts first set average 9.6 games in last 15
- Albot first set average 9.8 games in last 15
- Both players have tiebreak history in recent sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Albot's stronger recent hard-court starts and Geerts' slow openings support Albot taking the first set.
- Albot won first set in 4 of his last 6 hard-court matches
- Geerts lost first set in 5 of his last 8 hard-court matches
- Albot first serve points won 64.7% on hard vs Geerts 69.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRadu AlbotEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Evenly matched stats and recent three-set frequency make a deciding set likely.
- Albot played 3 sets in 3 of his last 6 hard-court matches
- Geerts played 3 sets in 3 of his last 8 hard-court matches
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Michael Geerts

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(6)—Billy Blaydes

2-6 6-2 6-4—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-4 6-4#365Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7-5 6-3#864Nicolas Robert

6-3 6-2#702Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-7(9) 6-2 6-2#457Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#244Yi Zhou

6-2 6-2#657Pieter De Lange

7-6(8) 2-1 ret.#886Iiro Vasa

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#804Dinko Dinev

7-6(7) 6-7(3) 7-6(3)#428Niels Visker

6-4 6-4#391Ioannis Xilas

6-1 ret.#429Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-7(7) 6-2 2-1 ret.—Nikita Ianin

6-4 7-6(2)#220Henry Searle

Radu Albot

9W 6L

6-2 6-2#429Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#614Leonardo Rossi 4-6 6-3 6-4—Viktor Frydrych

6-1 6-4#646Saba Purtseladze

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4#282Yanki Erel

6-3 6-4#514Benjamin Hassan

2-6 6-1 6-4#894Marcelo Zormann

6-1 6-4#121Zsombor Piros

6-2 7-6(1)#543Sebastian Gima

7-6(3) 6-3—Stefan Latinovic

3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(11)#304Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 4-6 6-2#266Cezar Cretu

7-5 7-6(2)#265Franco Agamenone

1-6 6-1 6-4#149Timofey Skatov

6-3 ret.#566Maxime Janvier

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MGMichael GeertsGeerts

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Radu AlbotAlbotRA

Michael Geerts carries the stronger recent form — Radu Albot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.0%+8.4pp67.4%

1st Serve Won70.5%+6.6pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won55.9%+4.0pp51.9%

Aces / Match3.8+2.41.4

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.1%+5.4pp41.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.1%+4.3pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved57.3%+1.0pp58.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.0%—50.6%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

59.0%1st Serve In+8.4pp67.4%

70.5%1st Serve Won+6.6pp63.9%

55.9%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp51.9%

3.8Aces / Match+2.41.4

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.9

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won+5.4pp41.5%

Pressure · 1–1

43.1%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp38.8%

57.3%Break Pts Saved+1.0pp58.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.0%Total Pts Won—50.6%