United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Radu Albot #512Moldova2Leonardo Rossi #614Italy1

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 7-6Mon 17 Aug 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRadu Albot · 102 places

Radu Albot

Moldova

Albot reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 39 in August 2019. Official ITF profile data lists hard and clay as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #512
Peak ranking: #39 · 2019
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Hard, Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Leonardo Rossi

Italy

Italian right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface; his documented career-best ATP ranking is No. 561 in June 2026.

Current ranking: #614
Peak ranking: #561 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Leonardo Rossi holds a structural edge over Radu Albot due to superior recent hard-court form and break-point saving.

Back Rossi to win at 2.60 odds, which offers significant value with a 19.5-point edge. The match is likely to be competitive, making over 21.5 total games another solid angle.

Context

Rossi's last 15 hard-court record is 4-2 (66.7%), compared to Albot's 2-2 (50%).
- Rossi's 2026 hard-court season record is 25-12 (67.6%), while Albot's is 4-4 (50%).
- Rossi has won 55.0% of games on hard courts in his last 15 matches, versus Albot's 47.4%.
Rossi's break points saved rate is 67.9% (72/106) over his last 15 matches.
- Albot's break points saved rate is 55.9% (71/127) over his last 15 matches.
- On hard courts, Rossi's break points saved rate rises to 77.8% (42/54) in his last 6 matches.
Rossi's hard-court aces per match is 6.2 (37 aces in 6 matches).
- Albot's hard-court aces per match is 2.8 (11 aces in 4 matches).
- Rossi wins 70.5% of first-serve points on hard courts, compared to Albot's 65.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Rossi's stronger recent hard-court form and superior break-point saving give him a structural edge in this Bo3 match.
- Rossi last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Albot 7-8 (46.7%)
- Rossi hard-court last 15 record 4-2 (66.7%) vs Albot 2-2 (50%)
- Rossi 2026 hard-court season 25-12 (67.6%) vs Albot 4-4 (50%)
- Rossi last 15 break points saved 67.9% vs Albot 55.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLeonardo RossiEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent numbers and long average match durations, suggesting a close match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Albot last 15 average duration 115.1 minutes, Rossi 108.0 minutes
- Albot last 15 games won 48.3%, Rossi 52.6%
- Albot last 15 total points won 49.7%, Rossi 50.7%
- Both players have similar return points won: Albot 41.1%, Rossi 39.5%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Albot's competitive recent numbers suggest he can keep the match within 2.5 games even if Rossi wins.
- Albot last 15 games won 48.3%, Rossi 52.6%
- Albot last 15 total points won 49.7%, Rossi 50.7%
- Albot last 15 hard-court games won 47.4%, Rossi 55.0%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRadu Albot +2.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rossi's better hard-court serve and game-winning percentage in the recent window support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Rossi first-set win conversion career 88% vs Albot 84%
- Rossi last 15 hard-court first-serve points won 70.5% vs Albot 65.5%
- Rossi last 15 hard-court games won 55.0% vs Albot 47.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLeonardo RossiEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rossi's high ace rate on hard courts combined with Albot's modest ace output supports over 6.5 total aces.
- Rossi last 15 aces per match 4.3, hard-court 6.2
- Albot last 15 aces per match 1.1, hard-court 2.8
- Combined expected aces on hard court: 6.2 + 2.8 = 9.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over two double faults per match on hard courts, making over 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Albot last 15 double faults per match 3.1, hard-court 2.5
- Rossi last 15 double faults per match 2.1, hard-court 2.8
- Combined expected double faults on hard court: 2.5 + 2.8 = 5.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Radu Albot

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 6-4—Viktor Frydrych

6-1 6-4#646Saba Purtseladze

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4#282Yanki Erel

6-3 6-4#514Benjamin Hassan

2-6 6-1 6-4#894Marcelo Zormann

6-1 6-4#121Zsombor Piros

6-2 7-6(1)#543Sebastian Gima

7-6(3) 6-3—Stefan Latinovic

3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(11)#304Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 4-6 6-2#266Cezar Cretu

7-5 7-6(2)#265Franco Agamenone

1-6 6-1 6-4#149Timofey Skatov

6-3 ret.#566Maxime Janvier

2-6 6-1 7-5#546Gerard Campana Lee

6-3 6-3#341Antoine Ghibaudo

Leonardo Rossi

8W 7L

6-1 6-7(5) 6-3—Benjamin Gusic Wan

6-4 6-4#449Robert Strombachs

6-7(4) 7-6(4) 6-3—Adam Majchrzak

6-3 7-5—Lorenzo Berto

6-4 6-1#338Marko Topo

7-5 6-2#316Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-2 6-2—Christopher Papa

7-5 7-6(4)#559Matyas Fuele

2-6 6-2 6-4—Linus Lagerbohm

6-3 6-4#900Niklas Guttau

7-6(5) 6-1#898Marcello Serafini

7-5 6-1#467Daniel Siniakov

6-1 6-3—Arian Barbic

7-6(2) 7-6(5)—Joaquin Guilleme

6-4 6-2—Moritz Kudernatsch

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RARadu AlbotAlbot

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Leonardo RossiRossiLR

Leonardo Rossi carries the stronger recent form — Radu Albot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In66.3%+7.1pp59.2%

1st Serve Won62.6%+6.6pp69.2%

2nd Serve Won50.0%+1.2pp51.2%

Aces / Match1.1+3.24.3

Double Faults / Match3.11.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.1%+1.6pp39.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.4%+4.9pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved55.9%+12.0pp67.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.7%+1.0pp50.7%

Serve · 1–4

66.3%1st Serve In+7.1pp59.2%

62.6%1st Serve Won+6.6pp69.2%

50.0%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp51.2%

1.1Aces / Match+3.24.3

3.1Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

41.1%Return Pts Won+1.6pp39.5%

Pressure · 0–2

36.4%Break Pts Converted+4.9pp41.3%

55.9%Break Pts Saved+12.0pp67.9%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won+1.0pp50.7%