Mark CebanUnited Kingdom22 – 0Iliyan Radulov #6220

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Ceban's stronger recent hard-court return and break conversion edge, plus better recent form, gives him a moderate advantage in this Bo3 hard-court matchup.

• Ceban last15 hard record 7-4 (63.6%), Radulov last15 hard record 4-4 (50%)
• Ceban last15 hard return points won 43.0% vs Radulov 37.5%
• Ceban last15 hard break point conversion 57.1% vs Radulov 42.3%
• Ceban recent form 5-1 in last 6 hard matches, Radulov 3-3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Competitive hard-court stats and Radulov's tendency to play longer matches suggest a total games line above 21.5 is likely.

• Ceban last15 hard average games per match 19.5, Radulov 21.5
• Radulov last15 hard matches: 4 of 8 went to 3 sets
• Both players have similar total points won percentages (Ceban 51.8%, Radulov 48.2%)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Radulov's competitive hard-court performances and narrow game differentials make +3.5 games a solid handicap position.

• Radulov last15 hard average games won per match 10.1
• Ceban last15 hard average games won per match 10.6
• Radulov lost only 2 of last 8 hard matches by more than 3 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ceban's superior hard-court return and first-serve effectiveness in the recent window supports him taking the opening set.

• Ceban first set win conversion career 78% vs Radulov 90%
• Ceban last15 hard first serve points won 66.0% vs Radulov 63.8%
• Ceban last15 hard return points won 43.0% vs Radulov 37.5%