United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Michael Geerts #339Belgium2Billy BlaydesUnited Kingdom0

Sets 6-3 · 7-6Tue 18 Aug 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–340%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Michael Geerts

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 212 on 3 April 2023. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #339
Peak ranking: #212 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Billy Blaydes

United Kingdom

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the structured form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 03:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Billy Blaydes holds a strong recent form and hard-court edge over Michael Geerts, making him the clear favorite.

Back Blaydes on the moneyline at 2.30 for the best value, with additional value in Blaydes to win the first set and over 9.5 games in the first set.

Context

Blaydes is 11-4 overall and 11-4 on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Geerts is 7-8 overall and 3-5 on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Blaydes has won his last two matches in straight sets, including a 6-2 6-1 win over John Echeverria on 17 August.
- Geerts lost his most recent match on clay, but his hard-court struggles are more relevant here.
Geerts retired against Iiro Vasa on 7 May 2026 (clay).
- Geerts retired against Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine on 21 April 2026 (hard).
- Geerts retired against Nikita Ianin on 8 April 2026 (hard).
- He has completed his last four matches without retiring, so the issue may not be active now.
Blaydes return points won: 41.8% (401/959) in last 15 matches.
- Geerts return points won: 36.4% (353/971) in last 15 matches.
- Blaydes also converts break points at 48% vs Geerts' 43.2%.
- Blaydes saves 62.6% of break points vs Geerts' 56.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Blaydes has a strong recent hard-court form edge and superior return/serve metrics, making him the clear favorite.
- Last 15 overall record: Blaydes 11-4 (73.3%) vs Geerts 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Blaydes 11-4 (73.3%) vs Geerts 3-5 (37.5%)
- Blaydes return points won 41.8% vs Geerts 36.4% in last 15
- Blaydes break points saved 62.6% vs Geerts 56.9% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBilly BlaydesEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve at a decent rate, and Blaydes's matches tend to be longer, supporting a higher total games line.
- Blaydes average match duration 125.2 min, Geerts 95.6 min in last 15
- Blaydes average total games per match 22.3, Geerts 21.3
- Both players have similar serve hold rates around 70%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have solid first serves, making a tight first set with over 9.5 games likely.
- Blaydes first set average games 9.8 in last 15
- Geerts first set average games 9.5 in last 15
- Both players have first serve points won around 70%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Blaydes's high first-set conversion rate and recent fast starts give him a strong edge in the opening set.
- Blaydes first set win conversion 93% career vs Geerts 85%
- Blaydes won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
- Geerts lost first set in 5 of last 8 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBilly BlaydesEstimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 aces per match, and the hard-court surface should support a combined total above 6.5.
- Blaydes aces per match 3.4, Geerts 3.4 in last 15
- Combined average aces per match 6.8
- Hard court surface typically yields more aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Geerts's elevated double fault rate on hard courts and both players' averages suggest a combined total over 5.5 is plausible.
- Blaydes double faults per match 2.5, Geerts 2.7 in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match 5.2
- Geerts has higher double fault rate on hard courts (3.5 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Michael Geerts

7W 8L

2-6 6-2 6-4—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-4 6-4#365Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7-5 6-3#864Nicolas Robert

6-3 6-2#702Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-7(9) 6-2 6-2#457Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#244Yi Zhou

6-2 6-2#657Pieter De Lange

7-6(8) 2-1 ret.#886Iiro Vasa

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#804Dinko Dinev

7-6(7) 6-7(3) 7-6(3)#428Niels Visker

6-4 6-4#391Ioannis Xilas

6-1 ret.#429Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-7(7) 6-2 2-1 ret.—Nikita Ianin

6-4 7-6(2)#220Henry Searle

6-3 6-1#334Eliakim Coulibaly

Billy Blaydes

11W 4L

6-2 6-1#587John Echeverria

7-6(8) 6-4#800Alexis Gautier

7-5 6-2#507Alex Rybakov

6-2 7-6(7)—Anuj Watane

6-4 2-6 6-4#475Emile Hudd

6-2 6-3#676Tiago Cacao

6-3 5-7 6-4—William Jansen

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)#403Lui Maxted

6-1 2-1 ret.—Freddie Ridout

7-5 6-3—Anuj Watane

4-6 6-4 6-4#500Aziz Ouakaa

7-6(4) 6-1—Gawad El Feky

6-1 6-4—Florent Limani

6-0 7-6(1)—Gabriel Sardo

6-3 4-6 7-5#510Cesar Bouchelaghem

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MGMichael GeertsGeerts

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Billy BlaydesBlaydesBB

Billy Blaydes carries the stronger recent form — Michael Geerts's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–1 · 3 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1558.9%+1.3pp60.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1570.7%—70.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1556.2%+4.8pp51.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/153.4—3.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.7—2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1536.4%+5.4pp41.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1543.2%+4.8pp48.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1556.9%+5.7pp62.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1550.2%+2.1pp52.3%

Serve · 1–1 · 3 even

58.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+1.3pp60.2%

70.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15—70.1%

56.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+4.8pp51.4%

3.4Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15—3.4

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/15—2.5

Return · 0–1

36.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+5.4pp41.8%

Pressure · 0–2

43.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+4.8pp48.0%

56.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+5.7pp62.6%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.1pp52.3%