United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #277Brazil2Peter Makk #553Hungary0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Tue 18 Aug 2026, 15:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida · 276 places

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

Career-high No. 190 on 26 September 2022. A 30 March 2026 report announced his return from injury for the April Campinas Challenger.

Current ranking: #277
Peak ranking: #190 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Peter Makk

Hungary

Hungarian right-hander born 20 October 2001. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public ranking sources show a substantial rise during 2026 rather than a clearly sourced decline.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: #546
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 03:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Pucinelli is the higher-ranked player with better clay form, but Makk has already won two hard-court matches here and has strong first-set stats.

The odds on Pucinelli are fair, so there's no value on the favorite; consider Makk +3.5 games or over 7.5 aces as low-confidence leans.

Context

All 15 of Pucinelli's last 15 matches were on clay.
- His career hard-court record is 21-21, much weaker than his 250-102 clay record.
- He has not played a hard-court match in the last 15 matches.
Makk beat Marcus Walters 6-4 7-5 and Roan Jones 7-6(4) 6-3 on hard courts in this tournament.
- He won 100% of sets in those two matches.
- His hard-court sample is only 2 matches, so confidence is limited.
Makk's hard-court aces per match: 9.0 (2 matches).
- His overall last-15 aces per match: 4.9.
- Pucinelli's last-15 aces per match: 2.3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Pucinelli's stronger overall record and ranking give him a slight edge, but the odds are close to fair value with no positive edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Pucinelli has a stronger recent record and much deeper clay-court pedigree, giving him the edge in this hard-court match despite limited hard-court data.
- Last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%) vs Makk 11-4 (73.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: 12-3 (80%) vs Makk 9-4 (69.2%) on clay
- Career ranking: 281 vs 553
- Career clay wins: 250 vs 45
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with high total game counts, suggesting a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Pucinelli last 15 average games per match: 25.0
- Makk last 15 average games per match: 22.4
- Pucinelli last 15 games won percentage: 56.8%
- Makk last 15 games won percentage: 56.3%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Makk's recent form is nearly as strong as Pucinelli's, and the +3.5 game handicap provides a cushion in what should be a close match.
- Pucinelli last 15 average games won margin: +1.6
- Makk last 15 average games won margin: +1.2
- Pucinelli last 15 games won percentage: 56.8%
- Makk last 15 games won percentage: 56.3%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPeter Makk +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have strong first-set conversion rates, but Pucinelli's overall match edge and higher ranking slightly favor him to take the opener.
- Pucinelli first-set win conversion career: 84%
- Makk first-set win conversion career: 88%
- Pucinelli last 15 sets won: 68.4%
- Makk last 15 sets won: 71.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Makk's higher ace rate, especially on hard courts, pushes the combined total toward the over despite Pucinelli's lower ace output.
- Pucinelli last 15 aces per match: 2.3
- Makk last 15 aces per match: 4.9
- Makk hard-court aces per match (2 matches): 9.0
- Combined average aces per match: 7.2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 double faults per match, and Makk's hard-court rate is higher, making over 6.5 a near coin-flip.
- Pucinelli last 15 double faults per match: 3.1
- Makk last 15 double faults per match: 3.8
- Makk hard-court double faults per match (2 matches): 5.0
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has been highly reliable when projected to win

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions, a strong 87% success rate. The average estimated probability was 66.9%, with 10 expected wins, so he has outperformed expectations by three victories. Both missed predictions came as losses, with no draws or wins in those matches, and the current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 58-78%.

Recent evidence for Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida1-2#191Federico Agustin Gomez

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·65%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida1-2#191Federico Agustin Gomez

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

65%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

Missed

30 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#214Henri Squire0-2#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·65%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#214Henri Squire0-2#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

65%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#195Guy Den Ouden0-2#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·58%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#195Guy Den Ouden0-2#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

58%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

27 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#412Johan Nikles

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·72%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#412Johan Nikles

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

72%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

26 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#295Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#539Louis Wessels

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#295Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#539Louis Wessels

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

62%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

Previous match context available

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

12W 3L

6-4 5-7 6-2#347Jan Kumstat 4-6 6-3 6-4#442Dylan Dietrich

6-1 6-3#318Max Schoenhaus

7-6(1) 3-6 7-5#293Florian Broska

7-6(4) 2-6 7-5#181Federico Agustin Gomez

6-2 7-6(5)#208Henri Squire

6-3 6-3#215Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-2#420Johan Nikles

6-3 6-4#530Louis Wessels

6-3 7-6(4)#236Juan Pablo Varillas

6-1 6-4#378Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 4-6 7-5#673Dmitry Popko

5-7 6-3 6-2#340Hernan Casanova

6-3 4-6 6-4#653Samuel Heredia

6-1 6-7(4) 6-4#561Alan Magadan

Peter Makk

11W 4L

6-4 7-5#874Marcus Walters 7-6(4) 6-3—Roan Jones

6-3 6-3—Matthias Ujvary

6-4 6-2#742John Hallquist Lithen

7-5 6-4—Nico Hipfl

6-3 6-4—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-4 3-6 7-5—Radovan Michalik

2-6 6-3 7-5#202Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-1 6-1#363Francesco Forti

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

4-6 6-3 6-0#387Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 7-6(6)#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

6-1 7-6(4)#254Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-7(5) 6-3—Robert Guna

6-3 3-6 6-3#439Yannik Kelm

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMatheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaAlmeida

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Peter MakkMakkPM

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida carries the stronger recent form — Peter Makk's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.7%+0.8pp61.9%

1st Serve Won69.0%+4.6pp73.6%

2nd Serve Won54.4%+3.8pp50.6%

Aces / Match2.3+2.64.9

Double Faults / Match3.10.7 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.8%+2.2pp41.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.8%+3.3pp39.5%

Break Pts Saved71.9%+12.7pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+0.8pp52.8%

Serve · 3–2

62.7%1st Serve In+0.8pp61.9%

69.0%1st Serve Won+4.6pp73.6%

54.4%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp50.6%

2.3Aces / Match+2.64.9

3.1Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

43.8%Return Pts Won+2.2pp41.6%

Pressure · 2–0

42.8%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp39.5%

71.9%Break Pts Saved+12.7pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+0.8pp52.8%