United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Peter Makk #553Hungary2Marcus Walters #874United Kingdom0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Mon 17 Aug 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–186%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePeter Makk · 321 places

Peter Makk

Hungary

Hungarian right-hander born 20 October 2001. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public ranking sources show a substantial rise during 2026 rather than a clearly sourced decline.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: #546
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Marcus Walters

United Kingdom

British player listed by the ITF as age 27, right-handed, with hard courts as his preferred surface. No reliable public career-high detail was found.

Current ranking: #874
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 06:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Peter Makk is favored over Marcus Walters in Roehampton Challenger qualifying, but the 1.08 odds overprice him given his clay-heavy recent form.

The best value is Makk to win 2-0 at 1.44, with a model edge of 5.6 points, and the over 9.5 games in set 1 at 1.91 is also worth a look.

Context

Makk's last 15 overall record is 11-4 (73.3%).
- On clay, he is 10-4 in that window; on hard, he is 1-0 with only one match tracked.
- His last hard-court match was a 7-6(4), 6-3 win over unranked Roan Jones on 16 August.
Walters' last 15 hard-court record is 4-6.
- He won his last hard-court match 7-6(1), 7-6(3) over Matt Ponchet (ranked 784).
- His hard-court first-serve points won is 64.1%, lower than Makk's 75.0% in his single hard-court match.
Makk played five matches in five days from 5-9 August, all on clay.
- He then played a hard-court qualifying match on 16 August, winning in straight sets.
- No injury or fatigue concerns are reported, but the schedule is busy.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Peter Makk

1.08fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Makk's overall recent record and return metrics are stronger, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Peter Makk

1.18fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Makk's superior first-serve effectiveness and high first-set conversion rate make him the likely set 1 winner.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Peter Makk 2-0

1.44fair 1.33

BetBugs 45% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Makk's dominant recent set-winning percentage and Walters' poor set record on hard courts make a straight-sets win likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Makk has a clear recent form and return edge over Walters, supported by a 26-place ranking gap and stronger last-15 point metrics.
- Peter Makk last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Marcus Walters 7-8 (46.7%)
- Makk last15 total points won 53.2% vs Walters 48.9%
- Makk last15 return points won 42.5% vs Walters 39.7%
- Makk ranking 553 vs Walters 874
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPeter MakkEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Walters' competitive game totals and Makk's moderate margin of victory suggest Walters can cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Walters last15 average games lost per match 12.9
- Makk last15 average games won per match 12.5
- Walters has kept matches close despite losing record
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMarcus Walters +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and competitive hard-court form suggest a total games line above 21.5 is likely.
- Makk last15 average 22.1 games per match
- Walters last15 average 24.3 games per match
- Both players' recent hard-court matches have been competitive
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent hard-court set 1 scores for both players have gone to tiebreaks or 7-5, supporting an over 9.5 games line.
- Makk's last hard-court set 1 was 7-6(4)
- Walters' last hard-court set 1 was 7-6(1)
- Both players have strong first-serve percentages on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Makk's superior first-serve effectiveness and high first-set conversion rate make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Makk career first-set win conversion 88%
- Makk last15 first-serve points won 73.6% vs Walters 64.6%
- Makk won his last match 7-6(4) 6-3 on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPeter MakkEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent tiebreak history on hard courts and competitive serving numbers, making a tiebreak likely.
- Makk career tiebreak win percentage 40%
- Walters career tiebreak win percentage 60%
- Both players' last hard-court matches featured tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 7.5 total aces, though confidence is low due to limited hard-court sample.
- Makk last15 aces per match 4.5
- Walters last15 aces per match 3.6
- Makk had 10 aces in his last hard-court match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates are close to the 5.5 line, making this a near coin-flip with slight lean to over.
- Makk last15 double faults per match 3.5
- Walters last15 double faults per match 2.2
- Makk had 5 double faults in his last hard-court match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price ignores Makk's surface-specific uncertainty and Walters' competitive hard-court form.

Previous match context available

Peter Makk

11W 4L

7-6(4) 6-3—Roan Jones

6-3 6-3—Matthias Ujvary

6-4 6-2#742John Hallquist Lithen

7-5 6-4—Nico Hipfl

6-3 6-4—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-4 3-6 7-5—Radovan Michalik

2-6 6-3 7-5#202Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-1 6-1#363Francesco Forti

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

4-6 6-3 6-0#387Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 7-6(6)#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

6-1 7-6(4)#254Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-7(5) 6-3—Robert Guna

6-3 3-6 6-3#439Yannik Kelm

6-3 6-3—Jeremy Schifris

Marcus Walters

7W 8L

7-6(1) 7-6(3)#784Matt Ponchet

6-1 7-5#692Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-7(4) 6-2#403Lui Maxted

6-0 6-2—Oliver Page

6-1 6-4—Ali Habib

6-2 6-1#626Amit Vales

7-5 1-6 6-3#898Jesse Delaney

6-3 7-6(10)#1377Vladislav Melnic

3-6 6-3 6-4#825Michel Hopp

6-2 0-6 7-6(3)—David Fix

2-6 6-3 10-8—Danil Panarin

6-3 7-6(5)—Dominick Mosejczuk

7-5 2-6 7-5—Oluwaseun Peter Ogunsakin

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#500Aziz Ouakaa

6-3 6-3#603Jacob Bradshaw

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PMPeter MakkMakk

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Marcus WaltersWaltersMW

Peter Makk carries the stronger recent form — Marcus Walters's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1561.3%+5.9pp67.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1573.6%+9.0pp64.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1551.6%+8.9pp42.7%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/154.5+0.93.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.51.3 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1542.5%+2.8pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1539.8%+1.7pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1556.2%—56.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1553.2%+4.3pp48.9%

Serve · 3–2

61.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+5.9pp67.2%

73.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+9.0pp64.6%

51.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+8.9pp42.7%

4.5Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+0.93.6

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.3 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

42.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.8pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

39.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+1.7pp38.1%

56.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15—56.0%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+4.3pp48.9%