United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Peliwo #555Canada2Nicolas Tepmahc #591France1

Sets 6-4 · 2-6 · 7-6Mon 17 Aug 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Peliwo · 36 places

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #555
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Nicolas Tepmahc

France

The ITF listed Tepmahc at ATP No. 591 on 29 June 2026, after a career-best No. 586 on 8 June 2026. Public profile sources identify him as a 25-year-old French right-hander; hard courts are listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #591
Peak ranking: #586 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Tepmahc's superior hard-court form and return game give him a slight edge over Peliwo, but the match winner market offers little value.

The best betting angles are the set 1 total over 9.5 games and total aces under 7.5.

Context

Last 15 return points won: Tepmahc 43.9% vs Peliwo 38.8%.
- Tepmahc also converts break points at 44.2% compared to Peliwo's 37.4%.
- Peliwo's second serve is vulnerable, winning only 51% of points behind it.
Lost to Ronald Hohmann (rank 1391) 6-3 6-0 on 28 July.
- Lost to Luc Fomba (rank 1765) 6-3 6-4 on 13 August.
- Lost to Chirag Duhan (rank 890) 4-6 6-1 6-3 on 8 July.
2026 hard-court record: Tepmahc 33-17 (66%) vs Peliwo 7-16 (30%).
- Tepmahc's last 15 matches are all on hard courts, with an 8-7 record.
- Peliwo's last 15 matches are also on hard courts, but he is 6-9.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Nicolas Tepmahc

1.73fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Tepmahc's superior return game and first-serve efficiency should help him take the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Tepmahc's stronger recent return and break-point resilience on hard courts give him a clear edge in this Bo3 Challenger match.
- Last 15 overall record: Tepmahc 8-7 (53.3%) vs Peliwo 6-9 (40%)
- Last 15 return points won: Tepmahc 43.9% vs Peliwo 38.8%
- Last 15 break points saved: Tepmahc 60.7% vs Peliwo 52.1%
- 2026 hard-court record: Tepmahc 33-17 (66%) vs Peliwo 7-16 (30%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNicolas TepmahcEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline stats and three-set potential suggest a match total above 21.5 games.
- Last 15 average games per match: Tepmahc 20.5, Peliwo 20.2
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
- H2H 2023 match total games: 22
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Even first-set dynamics and historical tiebreak suggest a set with at least 10 games.
- Last 15 average set games: Tepmahc 9.6, Peliwo 9.4
- H2H first set went to tiebreak (7-6)
- Both players have first-serve points won around 62-64%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Tepmahc's superior return game and first-serve efficiency should help him take the opening set.
- Last 15 first-set conversion: Tepmahc 89% career vs Peliwo 84% career
- Last 15 first-serve points won: Tepmahc 64% vs Peliwo 62.1%
- Last 15 return points won: Tepmahc 43.9% vs Peliwo 38.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNicolas TepmahcEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, so total aces are likely to stay under 7.5.
- Last 15 aces per match: Tepmahc 1.8, Peliwo 1.7
- Combined average aces per match: 3.5
- Both players have low ace rates on hard courts
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tepmahc's strong second-serve discipline and Peliwo's moderate double-fault rate support an under on total double faults.
- Last 15 double faults per match: Tepmahc 1.3, Peliwo 2.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.2
- Tepmahc's low double-fault rate helps keep total down
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has a high tiebreak rate in recent matches, making a tiebreak less likely.
- Last 15 tiebreak frequency: low for both players
- H2H match had one tiebreak in two sets
- Both players have moderate first-serve points won
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(2) 6-3Filip Peliwo#555vNicolas Tepmahc#621Feb 17, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Filip Peliwo

6W 9L

6-4 6-2#883Giulio Perego

6-3 6-4#1765Luc Fomba

6-1 6-1—Filip Kiryllo

6-1 3-6 6-3#354Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-3 6-0#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 6-3#889Zsombor Velcz

6-4 6-2—Andreas Scott

4-6 6-1 6-3#890Chirag Duhan

6-2 6-4#725Khololwam Montsi

3-6 6-3 7-5#784Matt Ponchet

6-4 7-5#606Guillaume Dalmasso

6-3 6-2—Rafael Ymer

7-6(5) 6-1#880Kristjan Tamm

6-3 6-1#334Eliakim Coulibaly

4-6 6-4 6-3#842Arda Azkara

Nicolas Tepmahc

8W 7L

6-4 6-2—Rhys Lawlor

7-5 6-1#421Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-3 2-6 6-3#516Pavel Lagutin

6-1 6-4—Theo Herrmann

6-1 6-2—Melih Anavatan

7-5 6-3#354Ivan Marrero Curbelo

5-7 6-0 7-6(5)—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-1 6-4—Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin

6-4 6-3—Udit Kamboj

6-4 2-6 5-2 ret.#869Diego Fernandez Flores

6-1 6-0—Mahmoud Chetouane

6-3 6-1—Benjamin Willwerth

2-6 6-1 6-3#485Yassine Dlimi

7-5 7-6(6)#797Ryuki Matsuda

1-6 6-0 6-3—Benjamin Willwerth

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FPFilip PeliwoPeliwo

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolas TepmahcTepmahcNT

Nicolas Tepmahc carries the stronger recent form — Filip Peliwo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.1%+5.4pp64.5%

1st Serve Won62.1%+1.9pp64.0%

2nd Serve Won51.0%+2.5pp48.5%

Aces / Match1.7—1.8

Double Faults / Match2.91.6 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+5.1pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.4%+6.8pp44.2%

Break Pts Saved52.1%+8.6pp60.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.0%+3.2pp51.2%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

59.1%1st Serve In+5.4pp64.5%

62.1%1st Serve Won+1.9pp64.0%

51.0%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp48.5%

1.7Aces / Match—1.8

2.9Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+5.1pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–2

37.4%Break Pts Converted+6.8pp44.2%

52.1%Break Pts Saved+8.6pp60.7%

Points · 0–1

48.0%Total Pts Won+3.2pp51.2%