SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Alex Marti Pujolras #524Spain2Lorenzo Bocchi #610Italy0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Mon 17 Aug 2026, 08:05 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Marti Pujolras · 86 places

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 10 February 1999. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 318 in July 2025.

Current ranking: #524
Peak ranking: #318 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Lorenzo Bocchi

Italy

The ITF lists Bocchi as 28, right-handed, and clay-preferring, with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 605 in July 2023. No current injury, withdrawal, or return-from-absence signal was verified in the requested search set.

Current ranking: #610
Peak ranking: #605 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Lorenzo Bocchi has a clear edge in recent form and clay-court stats over Alex Marti Pujolras.

Back Bocchi on the moneyline at 3.00 for value, and consider over 10.5 total double faults due to Pujolras' high double fault rate.

Context

Bocchi last 15 record: 9-6 (60%) vs Pujolras 6-9 (40%).
- Bocchi wins 55.6% of games vs Pujolras 48.9%.
- Bocchi saves 64.9% of break points vs Pujolras 57.5%.
Pujolras double faults per match: 7.7 (115 total in 15 matches).
- Bocchi double faults per match: 2.8 (42 total in 15 matches).
- Pujolras second serve points won: 40.2% vs Bocchi 50.8%.
Bocchi beat Salazar Martinez (rank 779), Fumagalli (unranked), Hribar (unranked), Sekachov (unranked), Berto (unranked).
- Bocchi lost to Donald (rank 461), Sakellaridis (rank 562), Villanueva (rank 322), Martin (rank 402), Weis (rank 564).
- Pujolras's recent wins include Neuchrist (rank 897) and Obradovic (rank 484), but losses to higher-ranked players.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Bocchi has a clear recent form and clay-court edge over Pujolras, supported by better win rate, games won percentage, and break point saving in the last 15 matches.
- Last 15 overall record: Bocchi 9-6 (60%) vs Pujolras 6-9 (40%)
- Last 15 clay record: Bocchi 9-6 (60%) vs Pujolras 6-8 (42.9%)
- Last 15 games won: Bocchi 55.6% vs Pujolras 48.9%
- Last 15 break points saved: Bocchi 64.9% vs Pujolras 57.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLorenzo BocchiEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average games per match for both players is around 20.5, and with competitive clay-court dynamics, the total is likely to exceed 21.5.
- Pujolras last 15 average games per match: 21.4 (157 games / 15 matches)
- Bocchi last 15 average games per match: 19.5 (163 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Pujolras recent first sets include 7-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2
- Bocchi recent first sets include 6-2, 6-2, 7-5, 6-0, 6-2
- Both players have a mix of tight and one-sided opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bocchi's superior recent form and games won percentage suggest he can cover a -1.5 game handicap.
- Bocchi last 15 games won: 55.6% vs Pujolras 48.9%
- Bocchi last 15 total points won: 52% vs Pujolras 49.5%
- Bocchi has a better recent record on clay
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLorenzo Bocchi -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bocchi's stronger recent form and higher sets won percentage suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- Bocchi last 15 first set win rate implied by 60% overall record and 58.1% sets won
- Pujolras last 15 sets won only 44.1%
- Bocchi has won 6 of last 8 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLorenzo BocchiEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 3 aces per match, making a total under 5.5 aces likely.
- Pujolras last 15 aces per match: 2.9
- Bocchi last 15 aces per match: 2.5
- Combined average aces per match: 5.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pujolras' high double fault rate (7.7 per match) drives the combined total above 10.5.
- Pujolras last 15 double faults per match: 7.7
- Bocchi last 15 double faults per match: 2.8
- Combined average double faults per match: 10.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Alex Marti Pujolras

6W 9L

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#897Maximilian Neuchrist

6-4 4-6 6-2#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-4 6-0#484Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-4#227Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#823Abel Forger

6-1 6-4#266Cezar Cretu

6-2 2-6 6-4#689Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-3#634N. Vijay Sundar Prashanth

6-3 6-1#342Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 4-6 6-2#402Andrej Martin

7-6(4) 6-2#514Benjamin Hassan

7-6(5) 7-5#184Luka Mikrut

7-6(2) 6-2—David Fix

6-4 6-3#351Oriol Roca Batalla

6-2 6-0#392Jack Kennedy

Lorenzo Bocchi

9W 6L

6-2 7-5#779Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-2 6-4#461Matthew William Donald

7-5 7-5#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-0 6-3—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-2 6-2—Matic Hribar

6-3 ret.—Glib Sekachov

7-6(3) 6-1#322Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 7-5—Lorenzo Berto

6-4 2-6 7-5#402Andrej Martin

6-0 6-2—Nicolo Toffanin

6-2 5-7 7-5—Unknown Player

7-5 6-0—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-0 6-3—William Mirarchi

7-6(3) 6-4#564Alexander Weis

6-3 6-4#421Sergio Callejon Hernando

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlex Marti PujolrasPujolras

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Lorenzo BocchiBocchiLB

Lorenzo Bocchi carries the stronger recent form — Alex Marti Pujolras's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.2%+2.4pp56.8%

1st Serve Won66.8%—66.2%

2nd Serve Won40.2%+10.6pp50.8%

Aces / Match2.9+0.42.5

Double Faults / Match7.74.9 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won43.0%—43.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted51.4%+6.3pp57.7%

Break Pts Saved57.5%+7.4pp64.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+2.5pp52.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.2%1st Serve In+2.4pp56.8%

66.8%1st Serve Won—66.2%

40.2%2nd Serve Won+10.6pp50.8%

2.9Aces / Match+0.42.5

7.7Double Faults / Match4.9 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

43.0%Return Pts Won—43.5%

Pressure · 0–2

51.4%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp57.7%

57.5%Break Pts Saved+7.4pp64.9%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+2.5pp52.0%