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Elina Svitolina #9Ukraine1Iga Swiatek #8Poland2

Sets 3-6 · 6-1 · 3-6Thu 13 Aug 2026, 00:15 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges5–183%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIga Swiatek · 1 places

Elina Svitolina

Ukraine

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 3 on September 11, 2017. The ITF lists grass as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #9
Peak ranking: #3 · 2017
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Iga Swiatek

Poland

Polish right-hander whose ITF profile lists clay and hard as preferred surfaces. She reached world No. 1 on 4 April 2022; the latest profile snapshot lists her at No. 8.

Current ranking: #8
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Swiatek's dominant hard-court stats and superior return game make her the favorite, but Svitolina's recent H2H wins and three-set resilience point to a close match.

Best bets: over 20.5 games and Svitolina +4.5 games, with value on Swiatek 2-1.

Context

Svitolina played a 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 quarterfinal lasting over two hours.
- She has played three three-setters in her last five matches, increasing cumulative fatigue.
- Swiatek's quarterfinal was a straight-sets win, giving her a fresher physical state.
Svitolina won 6-4, 2-6, 6-2 on clay in May 2026.
- She also won 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 on hard court in March 2026.
- Both matches went the distance, showing Svitolina can push Swiatek to a deciding set.
Swiatek's last15Stats on hard: 4-0 record, 73.9% games won, 58.8% total points won (4 matches tracked).
- She has won 88.9% of sets on hard in this window.
- Her return points won on hard is 56.2%, well above Svitolina's 50.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Swiatek's dominant hard-court form in the last 15 matches (4-0, 73.9% games won) and superior return points won (56.2%) give her a clear edge, though Svitolina's recent H2H wins add uncertainty.
- Swiatek's last15Stats.overall on Hard: 4-0 record, 73.9% games won, 58.8% total points won (4 matches tracked).
- Svitolina's last15Stats.overall on Hard: 5-1 record, 58.2% games won, 53.6% total points won (6 matches tracked).
- Swiatek's return points won on Hard in last 15: 56.2% vs Svitolina's 50.8%.
- H2H: Swiatek leads 4-3 overall, but Svitolina won the last two meetings in 2026 (both on clay/hard).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIga SwiatekEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Recent H2H matches and Svitolina's tendency for three-setters (3 of last 5) point to a competitive match likely exceeding 20.5 games, supported by both players' break-point efficiency.
- Svitolina's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters, average total games 22.6.
- Swiatek's last 5 matches: 1 three-setter, average total games 18.6, but vs stronger opponents.
- H2H: 5 of 7 meetings had 20+ games, including both 2026 matches (22 and 24 games).
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Svitolina 53.5%, Swiatek 50.3% in last 15).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' high first-set win rates and recent tight opening sets, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Svitolina's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 6-2, 6-1, 6-7, 3-6 (average 9.6 games).
- Swiatek's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 3-6, 6-2, 6-0, 6-7 (average 9.4 games).
- H2H: 4 of 7 first sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have strong first-set win conversions, indicating tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Svitolina's competitiveness in H2H and recent matches suggests she can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a solid cover, especially given Swiatek's inflated differential against weaker opponents.
- Svitolina's last 5 matches: average game differential +1.2 (excluding retirements).
- Swiatek's last 5 matches: average game differential +5.4, but vs lower-ranked opponents.
- H2H: 6 of 7 matches decided by 4 games or fewer.
- Svitolina's last15Stats.overall games won: 57.7% vs Swiatek's 61.9%.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonElina Svitolina +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Swiatek's elite career first-set conversion (94%) and dominant hard-court set record (88.9%) suggest she is likely to start strongly, though Svitolina's resilience keeps it close.
- Swiatek's first-set win conversion career: 94%.
- Svitolina's first-set win conversion career: 90%.
- Swiatek's last15Stats.overall on Hard: 88.9% sets won (8 of 9).
- Svitolina dropped the first set in her last match vs Alexandrova.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIga SwiatekEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low-volume ace hitters, especially on hard courts, with a combined H2H average of 5.3 aces per match, making under 5.5 likely.
- Svitolina's last15Stats.overall aces per match: 2.9 (Hard: 2.7).
- Swiatek's last15Stats.overall aces per match: 1.4 (Hard: 0.8).
- H2H stats: Svitolina 21 aces in 7 matches (3.0 per match), Swiatek 16 (2.3 per match).
- Combined average aces per match in H2H: 5.3.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Svitolina's elevated double fault rate on hard courts (5.8 per match) and the H2H average of 7.7 suggest a decent chance of exceeding 7.5, though Swiatek's low hard-court rate tempers confidence.
- Svitolina's last15Stats.overall double faults per match: 4.1 (Hard: 5.8).
- Swiatek's last15Stats.overall double faults per match: 3.5 (Hard: 1.5).
- H2H stats: Svitolina 30 double faults in 7 matches (4.3 per match), Swiatek 24 (3.4 per match).
- Combined H2H average double faults: 7.7 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Svitolina's recent form and H2H history suggest she is likely to take at least one set, making the 2-0 outcome overvalued.

Head-to-Head

3-4 (7 meetings)

W6-4 2-6 6-2Elina Svitolina#9vIga Swiatek#8May 14, 2026

W6-2 4-6 6-4Elina Svitolina#9vIga Swiatek#8Mar 12, 2026

L6-1 7-5Elina Svitolina#9vIga Swiatek#8Jun 3, 2025

L7-6(5) 6-3Elina Svitolina#9vIga Swiatek#8Mar 24, 2025

L6-1 6-4Elina Svitolina#9vIga Swiatek#8Feb 21, 2024

W7-5 6-7(5) 6-2Elina Svitolina#9vIga Swiatek#8Jul 11, 2023

L6-2 7-5Elina Svitolina#9vIga Swiatek#8May 15, 2021

7 total meetings

Previous match context available

Elina Svitolina

11W 4L

3-6 6-0 6-3#19Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-2 6-4#10Amanda Anisimova 6-1 6-1#27Anastasia Potapova

6-7(5) 7-6(4) 6-4#63Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-3 6-4#20Alexandra Eala

7-6(4) 6-4#103Polina Kudermetova

7-5 6-2#43Daria Snigur

3-6 6-3 6-2#55Liudmila Samsonova

6-3 6-4#20Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-2#85Eva Lys

6-1 4-1 ret.#21Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 2-6 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

4-6 6-4 6-0#14Belinda Bencic

6-2 6-3#47Tamara Korpatsch

6-0 6-4#94Kaitlin Quevedo

Iga Swiatek

11W 4L

6-2 6-1#17Diana Shnaider 3-6 6-1 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-2 6-1#51Viktorija Golubic

6-0 6-3#38Sara Bejlek

7-6(9) 6-2#20Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-3#66Karolina Pliskova

6-1 2-6 6-3#110Taylor Townsend

7-5 2-6 6-3#28Emma Navarro

7-5 6-1#11Marta Kostyuk

6-4 6-4#68Magda Linette

6-2 6-3#38Sara Bejlek

6-1 6-2#134Emerson Jones

6-4 2-6 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

6-1 6-2#3Jessica Pegula

6-2 6-1#13Naomi Osaka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ESElina SvitolinaSvitolina

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Iga SwiatekSwiatekIS

Iga Swiatek carries the stronger recent form — Elina Svitolina's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.8%+8.4pp66.2%

1st Serve Won65.9%—66.2%

2nd Serve Won43.7%+3.3pp47.0%

Aces / Match2.9+1.51.4

Double Faults / Match4.10.6 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won50.0%+1.6pp51.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted53.5%+3.2pp50.3%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+7.7pp52.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won53.4%+2.1pp55.5%

Shot making · 3–0Limited data · 5 vs 7

Winners / Match5/15 · 7/1523.8+4.719.1

Unforced Errors / Match5/15 · 7/1525.83.9 fewer29.7

Net Pts Won5/15 · 7/1563.7%+1.0pp62.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

57.8%1st Serve In+8.4pp66.2%

65.9%1st Serve Won—66.2%

43.7%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp47.0%

2.9Aces / Match+1.51.4

4.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

50.0%Return Pts Won+1.6pp51.6%

Pressure · 2–0

53.5%Break Pts Converted+3.2pp50.3%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+7.7pp52.3%

Points · 0–1

53.4%Total Pts Won+2.1pp55.5%

Shot making · 3–0Limited data · 5 vs 7

23.8Winners5/15 · 7/15+4.719.1

25.8Unforced Errors5/15 · 7/153.9 fewer29.7

63.7%Net Pts Won5/15 · 7/15+1.0pp62.7%

Elina Svitolina #9Ukraine1Iga Swiatek #8Poland2

Player Profiles

Elina Svitolina

Iga Swiatek

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Over 9.5

Elina Svitolina +4.5

Iga Swiatek 2-1

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Elina Svitolina 2-1 @ 6.50

Head-to-Head

Elina Svitolina

Iga Swiatek

Stat Battle