United StatesATP CincinnatiFinished

Predictions graded

Aleksandar Vukic #101Australia1Mark Lajal #157Estonia2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 4-6Thu 13 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–180%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAleksandar Vukic · 56 places

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

Australian right-hander. Public search results did not establish a current injury issue; a June 2026 Challenger walkover is outside the requested 30-day window.

Current ranking: #101
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Mark Lajal

Estonia

Estonian right-hander, born 12 May 2003. He reached a career-high ATP ranking of No. 145 on 22 September 2025; no reliable source established an active injury concern for Cincinnati.

Current ranking: #157
Peak ranking: #145 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 08:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Vukic is a slight favorite over Lajal in Cincinnati, but the edge is minimal.

Both players are in strong hard-court form, making over 22.5 total games and a tiebreak likely. Lajal's recent consistency makes him a live underdog.

Context

Vukic's last 15 hard-court record is 10-2, with 75.9% sets won.
- Recent wins include opponents ranked 221, 145, 87, 158, 690, 224, 82, 175, 720, 199.
- His only hard-court losses in this window were to Daniel Altmaier (rank 60) and Lorenzo Musetti (rank 13).
Lajal's last 15 hard-court record is 11-3, with 67.6% sets won.
- Recent wins include opponents ranked 111, 582, 216, 590, 202, 127, 221, 118, 210, 349, 383.
- His hard-court losses in this window were to Jeff Wolf (rank 282), Alex Michelsen (rank 42), and Bernard Tomic (rank 160).
Lajal last 15 hard: 4.1 double faults per match (57 in 14 matches).
- Vukic last 15 hard: 0.8 double faults per match (10 in 12 matches).
- Lajal's second-serve points won on hard is 52.3%, compared to Vukic's 55.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Aleksandar Vukic

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Vukic's superior hard-court set and game dominance in the recent window is offset by Lajal's better overall win rate and recent form, leaving only a marginal edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Vukic's stronger hard-court set and game dominance in the recent window, plus higher ranking, gives him a moderate edge over Lajal.
- Vukic last 15 on hard: 10-2 record, 75.9% sets won, 57.1% games won
- Vukic last 15 overall: 66.7% win rate, 61.1% sets won
- Lajal last 15 on hard: 11-3 record, 67.6% sets won, 55.2% games won
- Vukic ranking 101 vs Lajal 157
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAleksandar VukicEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 24 games per hard-court match in their recent windows, making over 22.5 games likely.
- Vukic last 15 hard average duration: 102.8 minutes
- Lajal last 15 hard average duration: 111.4 minutes
- Vukic last 15 hard games per match: 23.9 (287/12)
- Lajal last 15 hard games per match: 24.1 (337/14)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive first sets in both players' recent hard-court matches suggest a close opener with at least 10 games.
- Vukic recent hard matches often feature tiebreaks or 7-5 sets
- Lajal recent hard matches include multiple 7-6 and 7-5 sets
- Both players have tiebreak win rates above 54% career
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vukic's slightly better first-serve effectiveness on hard courts and high first-set conversion rate support a narrow first-set edge.
- Vukic first-set win conversion career: 86%
- Lajal first-set win conversion career: 84%
- Vukic last 15 hard: 78.2% first serve points won
- Lajal last 15 hard: 73.9% first serve points won
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAleksandar VukicEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the matchup and both players' frequent tiebreak appearances in recent hard-court matches support at least one tiebreak.
- Vukic career tiebreak win rate: 54%
- Lajal career tiebreak win rate: 55%
- Both players have multiple recent hard-court matches with tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lajal's high double-fault rate on hard courts pushes the combined total near the over line, though Vukic's low rate tempers confidence.
- Lajal last 15 hard: 4.1 double faults per match
- Vukic last 15 hard: 0.8 double faults per match
- Combined average: 4.9 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 7 aces per hard-court match, making a combined total above 14.5 plausible.
- Vukic last 15 hard: 8.4 aces per match
- Lajal last 15 hard: 7.3 aces per match
- Combined average: 15.7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Aleksandar Vukic has been highly reliable when projected to win

Aleksandar Vukic has fulfilled 8 of 11 win predictions, a 73% success rate. His average estimated probability was 65.1%, with an expected 7.2 wins, so he has outperformed expectations. All three missed predictions resulted in losses, and his current 58% probability sits within his historical range of 55-85%.

Recent evidence for Aleksandar Vukic11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#138Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#138Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Aleksandar Vukic to win

62%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

29 Jul·ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic1-2#15Lorenzo Musetti

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·55%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic1-2#15Lorenzo Musetti

Aleksandar Vukic to win

55%probability

Lorenzo Musetti won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#76Zachary Svajda

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#76Zachary Svajda

Aleksandar Vukic to win

72%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Washington

#102Aleksandar Vukic2-0#167Alex Bolt

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#102Aleksandar Vukic2-0#167Alex Bolt

Aleksandar Vukic to win

72%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

19 Jul·Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#192August Holmgren

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#192August Holmgren

Aleksandar Vukic to win

58%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

Previous match context available

Aleksandar Vukic

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(4)#221Darwin Blanch

6-7(2) 7-6(5) 6-4#60Daniel Altmaier

7-6(4) 6-2#145Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 5-7 6-3#13Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-1#87Zachary Svajda

6-0 6-1#158Alex Bolt

6-3 6-3#690Aziz Dougaz

6-4 3-6 6-3#224August Holmgren

6-4 1-6 6-1#82Arthur Gea

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#175Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#199Liam Broady

7-6(4) 6-3#199Liam Broady

7-6(7) 6-1 6-1#74Jenson Brooksby

7-5 6-1#74Jenson Brooksby

Mark Lajal

11W 4L

5-7 6-4 6-3#111Dalibor Svrcina

7-5 6-1#282Jeff Wolf

6-3 6-2#582Keegan Rice

6-2 6-2#216Braden Shick

6-3 6-2#590Evan Zhu

7-6(3) 7-5#202Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#42Alex Michelsen

6-2 4-6 7-6(5)#127Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 5-7 6-4#221Darwin Blanch

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#160Bernard Tomic

2-6 6-1 7-6(6)#118Bu Yunchaokete

6-4 6-4#210Rio Noguchi

6-2 3-1 ret.#349Mitchell Krueger

5-7 7-6(5) 6-3#383Trevor Svajda

7-5 3-6 6-1#110Jacob Fearnley

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AVAleksandar VukicVukic

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Mark LajalLajalML

Aleksandar Vukic carries the stronger recent form — Mark Lajal's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In58.8%+2.3pp56.5%

1st Serve Won74.0%+0.8pp73.2%

2nd Serve Won54.2%+3.2pp51.0%

Aces / Match7.6+0.57.1

Double Faults / Match1.33.1 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.1%+2.5pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted35.1%+6.1pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved61.3%—60.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.4%—51.7%

Serve · 5–0

58.8%1st Serve In+2.3pp56.5%

74.0%1st Serve Won+0.8pp73.2%

54.2%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp51.0%

7.6Aces / Match+0.57.1

1.3Double Faults / Match3.1 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won+2.5pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

35.1%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp41.2%

61.3%Break Pts Saved—60.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.4%Total Pts Won—51.7%