United StatesATP CincinnatiFinished

Predictions graded

Nicolas Mejia #129Colombia2Jacob Fearnley #110United Kingdom1

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 6-2Wed 12 Aug 2026, 22:52 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJacob Fearnley · 19 places

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

Reached a career-high No. 129 on August 3, 2026. ATP lists grass as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: #129 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Jacob Fearnley

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 49 on June 9, 2025. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; historical college injuries are not treated as a current availability issue.

Current ranking: #110
Peak ranking: #49 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Jacob Fearnley's superior hard-court form and return metrics make him the favorite, but his short odds offer little value.

The match is likely to be tight, with strong angles on over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets, while the set-one winner market is best avoided.

Context

Fearnley last15 on hard: 6-2 record (75% win rate), with wins over Mannarino (rank 47) and Ofner (rank 126).
- Mejia last15 on hard: 2-2 record (50% win rate), with losses to Musetti (rank 13) and Hernandez (rank 459).
- Fearnley's hard-court return points won (41.5%) and break point conversion (48.3%) are well above Mejia's (35.7% and 32%).
Mejia last15 on hard: return points won 35.7% (111/311), break points converted 32% (8/25).
- Fearnley last15 on hard: return points won 41.5% (245/591), break points converted 48.3% (28/58).
- Mejia's second-serve points won on hard is just 46%, leaving him vulnerable in return games.
Fearnley last15 on hard: 5.3 double faults per match, break points saved 48.8% (20/41).
- Mejia last15 on hard: break points converted 32% (8/25), but he will likely see more opportunities against Fearnley's second serve.
- Fearnley's second-serve points won on hard is 48.3%, below his first-serve 75%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Fearnley's stronger recent hard-court form (75% win rate vs Mejia's 50%) and superior return/break-point metrics give him a clear edge in this Bo3 hard-court match.
- Fearnley last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Mejia 11-4 (73.3%)
- Fearnley last15 on hard: 6-2 (75%), Mejia 2-2 (50%)
- Fearnley return points won last15 overall: 41.9%, Mejia 39.6%
- Fearnley break point conversion last15: 47.1%, Mejia 37%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJacob FearnleyEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches consistently exceed 21.5 total games, with close sets and tiebreaks common, making Over 21.5 likely.
- Mejia last15 hard matches averaged 23.5 games per match
- Fearnley last15 hard matches averaged 23.0 games per match
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple tiebreaks
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
With both players holding serve effectively on hard courts, first sets frequently extend beyond 9.5 games, as seen in their recent matches.
- Mejia last15 on hard: 3 of 4 first sets had 10+ games
- Fearnley last15 on hard: 5 of 8 first sets had 10+ games
- Both players have strong serve hold rates on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mejia's hard-court matches are typically close, and even in losses he stays within 3.5 games, making the +3.5 handicap a solid cover.
- Mejia last15 on hard: average game margin -1.5 per match
- Fearnley last15 on hard: average game margin +1.25 per match
- Mejia's recent losses on hard were competitive (e.g., 7-6 6-2 vs Musetti)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNicolas Mejia +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of this matchup, second sets are likely to be tight, with a slight lean toward Over 9.5 based on recent hard-court patterns.
- Mejia last15 on hard: 3 of 4 second sets had 10+ games
- Fearnley last15 on hard: 4 of 8 second sets had 10+ games
- Match expected to be competitive, reducing likelihood of lopsided sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches in their recent windows, and with closely matched stats, a deciding set is probable.
- Mejia last15 overall: 7 of 15 matches went to deciding set
- Fearnley last15 overall: 8 of 15 matches went to deciding set
- Fearnley career deciding set win rate: 70%
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's elite career first-set conversion rate (95%) and Mejia's tendency to drop the opener on hard courts suggest Fearnley is likely to take Set 1.
- Fearnley first-set win conversion career: 95%, Mejia 85%
- Fearnley last15 on hard: 6-2 record, often starting strong
- Mejia last15 on hard: lost first set in 3 of 4 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJacob FearnleyEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve well and a history of tiebreaks in their recent hard-court matches, at least one tiebreak is highly likely.
- Mejia last15 on hard: 2 of 4 matches featured a tiebreak
- Fearnley last15 on hard: 4 of 8 matches featured a tiebreak
- Both players have career tiebreak win rates around 51-52%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players exceed 10.5 per match, and with a likely three-setter, total aces should surpass this line.
- Mejia last15 overall aces per match: 6.6
- Fearnley last15 overall aces per match: 4.7
- Combined average aces per match: 11.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's high double-fault rate (6.3 per match) alone pushes the combined total near 8.5, and a longer match increases the likelihood of exceeding this line.
- Fearnley last15 overall double faults per match: 6.3
- Mejia last15 overall double faults per match: 2.7
- Combined average double faults per match: 9.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Jacob Fearnley has been highly reliable when projected to win

Jacob Fearnley has fulfilled 11 of 14 win predictions, a 79% success rate. The model’s average estimated probability of 60.6% expected about 8.5 wins, so he has outperformed expectations. All three missed predictions were losses, and the current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 55–72%.

Recent evidence for Jacob Fearnley14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

25 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

23 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·72%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

Jacob Fearnley to win

72%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

11 Jul·Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

Nicolas Mejia

11W 4L

7-6(8) 6-2#13Lorenzo Musetti

4-6 6-4 6-3#64Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 3-6 6-1#90Marco Trungelliti

7-5 6-2#459Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-1 7-5#256Matias Soto

6-4 5-7 6-1#232Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 6-2#330Hernan Casanova

7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-2#397Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-3 6-2#898Fermin Tenti

6-7(4) 7-6(8) 6-1 6-4#113Michael Zheng

4-6 6-4 7-5 7-6(2)#66Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-4 6-4 6-4#187Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-3#131Gustavo Heide

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#125Henrique Rocha

7-6(5) 6-3#240Yi Zhou

Jacob Fearnley

12W 3L

6-3 3-6 6-3#17Jakub Mensik

7-6(3) 6-4#47Adrian Mannarino

7-6(3) 6-2#126Sebastian Ofner

7-6(4) 6-3#42Alex Michelsen

6-3 6-4#113Michael Zheng

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#282Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-4#168Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-4#176Remy Bertola

5-7 7-6(8) 6-4#97Adam Walton

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#175Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#221Darwin Blanch

3-6 6-3 6-2#295Stefan Kozlov

7-5 3-6 6-1#157Mark Lajal

6-4 7-6(3) 6-4#45Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

3-6 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-2#42Alex Michelsen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NMNicolas MejiaMejia

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Jacob FearnleyFearnleyJF

Nicolas Mejia carries the stronger recent form — Jacob Fearnley's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In60.4%+1.3pp59.1%

1st Serve Won70.9%+2.2pp73.1%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+6.9pp46.5%

Aces / Match6.6+1.94.7

Double Faults / Match2.73.6 fewer6.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.6%+2.3pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.0%+10.1pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved69.2%+16.7pp52.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.6%—51.8%

Serve · 4–1

60.4%1st Serve In+1.3pp59.1%

70.9%1st Serve Won+2.2pp73.1%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+6.9pp46.5%

6.6Aces / Match+1.94.7

2.7Double Faults / Match3.6 fewer6.3

Return · 0–1

39.6%Return Pts Won+2.3pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

37.0%Break Pts Converted+10.1pp47.1%

69.2%Break Pts Saved+16.7pp52.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.6%Total Pts Won—51.8%

Nicolas Mejia

Jacob Fearnley

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Over 2.5

Over 9.5

Jacob Fearnley

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Nicolas Mejia

Jacob Fearnley

Stat Battle