Daniel Merida Aguilar #63Spain00 – 2Learner Tien #19United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60

The read

Merida Aguilar's perfect recent hard-court record and superior return and second-serve numbers give him a slight edge over Tien, whose hard-court stats are less dominant.

• Merida Aguilar is 4-0 on hard courts in the last 15 matches, winning 61.3% of games and 53.4% of total points.
• Tien is 3-1 on hard courts in the same window but with lower return points won (40.1%) and second serve points won (42.3%).
• Merida Aguilar has won his last 4 matches in Montreal without dropping a set, including a 69-minute win over Griekspoor.
• Tien's last hard-court loss was to Mannarino (ranked 47), and his hard-court break point conversion is 41.2% vs. Merida Aguilar's 46.3%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players in good form and competitive hard-court stats, a close match with over 21.5 games is likely, especially if it goes to three sets.

• Merida Aguilar's last 4 hard-court matches averaged 21.3 games, with two matches exceeding 21.5 games.
• Tien's last 4 hard-court matches averaged 20.8 games, with two matches exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have strong hold/break profiles on hard, suggesting competitive sets and potential for a decider.
• Tien's matches average 129.4 minutes overall, indicating longer, more contested matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is likely to be tight, with both players holding serve well, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Merida Aguilar's last 4 hard-court first sets: 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, 3-6 (average 9.5 games).
• Tien's last 4 hard-court first sets: 6-4, 6-3, 6-3, 5-7 (average 9.3 games).
• Both players have first-serve points won around 70% on hard, making breaks less frequent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The second set could be closely contested, especially if the first set is tight, leading to over 9.5 games.

• Merida Aguilar's last 4 hard-court second sets: 6-1, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 (average 9.8 games).
• Tien's last 4 hard-court second sets: 6-4, 6-2, 0-6, 4-6 (average 9.0 games).
• Both players have shown they can extend sets, with Tien's second-set volatility potentially leading to a longer set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38

The read

Merida Aguilar's strong start in recent hard-court matches and better return game suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opening set.

• Merida Aguilar has won the first set in all 4 of his recent hard-court matches.
• Tien has won the first set in 3 of his last 4 hard-court matches, but his first-set win rate overall is 73.3% vs. Merida Aguilar's 80% on hard.
• Merida Aguilar's first-serve points won on hard is 70.4%, identical to Tien's, but his return points won is higher (44.5% vs. 40.1%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Tien's high frequency of three-set matches and Merida Aguilar's recent hard-court three-setters make a deciding set a reasonable possibility.

• Merida Aguilar has played 3 three-set matches in his last 15 (20%), but 2 of his last 4 hard-court matches went to three sets.
• Tien has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15 (47%), including 2 of his last 4 hard-court matches.
• Both players have deciding-set win rates above 50% (Merida Aguilar 58% career, Tien 73% career).