Daniel Merida Aguilar #59Spain11 – 2Kyrian Jacquet #134France2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While Merida Aguilar often starts strong, the variability in first-set game counts and Jacquet's occasional competitive starts keep this probability moderate, but the trend leans toward a shorter set.

• Merida Aguilar's first sets in his last 5 clay wins: 6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 7-5, 6-4 (average 9.2 games).
• Jacquet's first sets in his last 5 clay matches: 4-6, 6-1, 2-6, 4-6, 7-6 (average 9.6 games).
• The 2025 clay H2H first set was 6-4 (10 games).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Merida Aguilar's dominance in second sets on clay, often closing out matches efficiently, supports a lower game total, though Jacquet's ability to occasionally push sets adds uncertainty.

• Merida Aguilar's second sets in his last 5 clay wins: 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 (average 8.4 games).
• Jacquet's second sets in his last 5 clay matches: 6-3, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 (average 9.0 games).
• The 2025 clay H2H second set was 6-4 (10 games).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Merida Aguilar's pattern of fast starts on clay, combined with Jacquet's recent first-set struggles on the surface, makes the home player likely to take the opener.

• Merida Aguilar has won the first set in all 5 of his recent clay matches, with an average of 6.2 games won per set.
• Jacquet lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
• Merida Aguilar's first set win conversion rate is 84% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57

The read

The one-sided nature of Merida Aguilar's recent clay wins and Jacquet's struggles on the surface make a tiebreak unlikely, as sets are expected to be decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks.

• Merida Aguilar has not played a tiebreak in his last 5 clay matches.
• Jacquet has played only one tiebreak in his last 5 clay matches.
• Merida Aguilar's career tiebreak win percentage is 49%, and Jacquet's is 57%, but the surface and recent form reduce the likelihood of close sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have relatively high double fault rates on clay, making it likely that the combined total exceeds 5.5, though individual match variance keeps confidence low.

• Merida Aguilar averages 3.1 double faults per match on clay in his last 15.
• Jacquet averages 3.6 double faults per match on clay in his last 15.
• Combined average of 6.7 double faults per match on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While both players have modest ace numbers on clay, Jacquet's serving ability and the possibility of a competitive set could lead to a total just above 7.5, though confidence is low.

• Jacquet averages 4.4 aces per match on clay in his last 15, but his overall ace rate is higher (6.1 per match across surfaces).
• Merida Aguilar averages 2.1 aces per match on clay in his last 15.
• Combined, their recent clay ace averages sum to 6.5, but Jacquet's potential for higher ace counts on faster surfaces could push the total over.