CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Terence Atmane #46France0Jakub Mensik #17Czechia2

Sets 5-7 · 4-6Fri 7 Aug 2026, 22:35 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJakub Mensik · 29 places

Terence Atmane

France

Reached a career-high No. 41 on April 13, 2026. The reviewed public results did not establish a reliable preferred-surface label or a current active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #46
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Jakub Mensik

Czechia

Reached a career-high No. 12 on March 2, 2026. Older 2026 reports documented foot and abdominal issues, but the prescribed current-event searches did not confirm an active Montreal fitness restriction.

Current ranking: #17
Peak ranking: #12 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 09:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Mensik is favored but overvalued at 1.33; the best betting value lies in over 22.5 total games (edge 10.9pts) and Mensik 2-1 set betting (edge 6.4pts).

Both players' strong serving and high tiebreak rates on hard courts suggest a close, high-scoring match, making a tiebreak likely and straight-sets win for Mensik a poor bet.

Context

Atmane's last-15 hard-court record is 3-1 (75%), with wins over Khachanov (#39) and Tiafoe (#20).
- Only 4 hard-court matches are tracked in the last-15 window, making the sample size very small.
- His first-serve points won on hard is 79%, but this is based on just 4 matches.
Mensik's last-15 hard-court record is 2-1 (66.7%), with only 3 matches tracked.
- Two of those three matches went to three sets, and the average total games was 29.7.
- His first-serve points won on hard is 81.3%, but the sample is just 3 matches.
The H2H record shows 0 total matches between the two players.
- No surface-specific H2H data is available.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Mensik's superior overall recent form (60% win rate vs 33.3%) and higher ranking give him the edge, though Atmane's small-sample hard-court stats are strong.
- Mensik last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Atmane 5-10 (33.3%)
- Mensik last15 hard record 2-1 (66.7%), Atmane 3-1 (75%) but only 4 matches tracked
- Mensik career hard win% 93-35 (72.7%), Atmane 197-97 (67%)
- Mensik ranking #17 vs Atmane #46
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJakub MensikEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Recent hard-court matches for both players have been high-scoring, and their tiebreak tendencies suggest close sets, pushing total games over 22.5.
- Atmane last15 hard matches averaged 24.8 games (99 games/4 matches)
- Mensik last15 hard matches averaged 29.7 games (89 games/3 matches)
- Both players have high tiebreak rates (Atmane 58%, Mensik 57% career)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Strong serving on hard courts from both players makes a tight first set likely, with recent matches averaging around 10 games.
- Atmane last15 hard set1 games: 6-4, 6-3, 3-6, 4-6 (avg 9.5, 3/4 over 9.5)
- Mensik last15 hard set1 games: 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 (avg 10, 2/3 over 9.5)
- Both players have strong first-serve win% on hard (Atmane 79%, Mensik 81.3%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent hard-court matches have also trended long, with only one set under 9.5 games across both players.
- Atmane last15 hard set2 games: 7-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 (avg 9.75, 3/4 over 9.5)
- Mensik last15 hard set2 games: 3-6, 6-3, 6-7 (avg 10.3, 2/3 over 9.5)
- Both players have break point save rates around 60% in last15 overall
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's recent hard-court form is competitive, and the stats suggest a close match, making +3.5 games a reasonable cover.
- Atmane last15 hard games won% 52.5%, Mensik 55.1%
- Atmane last15 hard total points won% 51.2%, Mensik 52%
- Atmane has won 3 of last 4 hard matches, all in straight sets or close three-setters
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostTerence Atmane +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency for three-set matches on hard courts recently, and their similar deciding-set records suggest a close contest.
- Atmane last15 hard matches: 2 three-setters out of 4
- Mensik last15 hard matches: 2 three-setters out of 3
- Atmane career deciding set win% 52%, Mensik 55%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mensik's return advantage (36.3% vs 28.6%) could be decisive early, but both have strong first-set records, making this a narrow edge.
- Mensik last15 first serve points won 76.3%, Atmane 75.4%
- Mensik last15 return points won 36.3% vs Atmane 28.6%
- Atmane career first set win conversion 85%, Mensik 86%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJakub MensikEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers on hard courts, with a combined average of 20 aces per match in their recent hard-court outings.
- Mensik last15 hard aces per match: 11.7
- Atmane last15 hard aces per match: 8.3
- Combined average aces per match on hard: 20.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high tiebreak rates and strong serving on hard courts, making a tiebreak likely in a close match.
- Atmane career tiebreak win% 58%, Mensik 57%
- Atmane last15 hard matches: 1 tiebreak in 4 matches
- Mensik last15 hard matches: 2 tiebreaks in 3 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mensik's high double-fault rate on hard courts (5.7 per match) pushes the combined total over 7.5, though Atmane's rate is lower.
- Mensik last15 hard double faults per match: 5.7
- Atmane last15 hard double faults per match: 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match on hard: 9.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Terence Atmane

5W 10L

6-4 7-6(3)#39Karen Khachanov 6-3 2-6 6-2#143Jack Draper 6-3 7-6(6)#26Alejandro Tabilo

4-6 6-3 6-4#20Frances Tiafoe

7-6(6) 6-1 4-6 6-4#20Frances Tiafoe

6-7(7) 6-4 7-5#108Gabriel Diallo

6-4 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev

6-3 3-6 7-6(2)#64Martin Landaluce

6-4 6-4#55Nuno Borges

6-7(5) 6-2 4-6 6-3 7-5#434Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-2 7-6(4)#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-7(13) 6-1 6-4#119Titouan Droguet

7-6(1) 6-3#8Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4#34Zizou Bergs

6-3 7-6(2)#3Alexander Zverev

Jakub Mensik

9W 6L

6-3 3-6 6-3#110Jacob Fearnley

7-6(5) 3-6 6-4#31Brandon Nakashima

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#383Trevor Svajda

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5 6-3#137Grigor Dimitrov

5-7 6-3 6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#109Toby Samuel

5-7 7-6(3) 7-6(5)#47Adrian Mannarino

7-5 6-2 3-6 6-3#3Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-3 7-6(3)#27Joao Fonseca

6-3 7-6(6) 4-6 2-6 6-3#16Andrey Rublev

0-6 6-2 6-2 6-3#7Alex De Minaur

6-3 2-6 6-4 1-6 7-6(11)#44Mariano Navone

6-3 6-2 6-4#119Titouan Droguet

6-0 6-3#33Ignacio Buse

7-6(3) 6-2#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-3 2-6 6-4#139Alexei Popyrin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TATerence AtmaneAtmane

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Jakub MensikMensikJM

Jakub Mensik carries the stronger recent form — Terence Atmane's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.2%+4.0pp59.2%

1st Serve Won75.4%+0.9pp76.3%

2nd Serve Won49.1%+1.3pp47.8%

Aces / Match7.4+3.510.9

Double Faults / Match2.52.4 fewer4.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won28.6%+7.7pp36.3%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

Break Pts Converted30.4%—29.9%

Break Pts Saved61.2%—60.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.7%+2.6pp50.3%

Serve · 3–2

63.2%1st Serve In+4.0pp59.2%

75.4%1st Serve Won+0.9pp76.3%

49.1%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp47.8%

7.4Aces / Match+3.510.9

2.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer4.9

Return · 0–1

28.6%Return Pts Won+7.7pp36.3%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

30.4%Break Pts Converted—29.9%

61.2%Break Pts Saved—60.5%

Points · 0–1

47.7%Total Pts Won+2.6pp50.3%

Terence Atmane

Jakub Mensik

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Jakub Mensik 2-1

Jakub Mensik

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Terence Atmane

Jakub Mensik

Stat Battle