Jacob Fearnley #110United Kingdom11 – 2Jakub Mensik #17Czechia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.30

The read

Fearnley's superior recent hard-court form, higher return points won, and match readiness from a completed main-draw win give him a slight edge over Mensik, who lacks recent hard-court match play.

• Fearnley has won 12 of his last 15 matches (80% win rate), including 6 of 7 on hard courts (85.7%) in the last 15.
• Mensik is 1-1 on hard courts in his last 15, with a 50% win rate, and has played only 2 hard-court matches in that window.
• Fearnley's return points won on hard in the last 15 is 42.5%, significantly higher than Mensik's 33.3% on hard in the same window.
• Fearnley has already played and won a main-draw match in Montreal, beating Mannarino in straight sets, while Mensik is playing his first match of the tournament.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players frequently engage in tight first sets, with a high percentage exceeding 9.5 games in recent matches, especially on hard courts.

• In Fearnley's last 15 matches, 11 of 15 first sets had 10 or more games (73.3%).
• In Mensik's last 15 matches, 10 of 15 first sets had 10 or more games (66.7%).
• Fearnley's recent hard-court first sets: 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 – all but one over 9.5.
• Mensik's two hard-court first sets: 7-6 and 6-2, averaging 10.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Second sets in their recent matches often extend beyond 9.5 games, with both players showing a pattern of competitive second sets.

• Fearnley's last 15 matches: 10 of 15 second sets had 10 or more games (66.7%).
• Mensik's last 15 matches: 9 of 15 second sets had 10 or more games (60%).
• On hard courts, Fearnley's second sets: 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 – 4 of 7 over 9.5.
• Mensik's hard-court second sets: 3-6 and 6-7, both over 9.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75

The read

Fearnley's high first-set win rate in recent matches, especially on hard courts, combined with Mensik's inconsistency in openers, supports Fearnley taking the first set.

• Fearnley has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%), including 6 of 7 on hard courts.
• Mensik has won the first set in only 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%), and in his 2 hard-court matches he split first sets.
• Fearnley's first-set win conversion rate over his career is 95%, indicating he closes out matches when winning the opener.
• Fearnley's recent hard-court matches show strong starts: he won the first set 6-4 vs Mannarino, 7-6 vs Ofner, and 6-3 vs Zheng.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently engage in tiebreaks, with over half of their recent matches featuring at least one, making a tiebreak in this match probable.

• Fearnley has played a tiebreak in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%), including 4 of 7 on hard courts.
• Mensik has played a tiebreak in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%), and both of his recent hard-court matches featured a tiebreak.
• Fearnley's career tiebreak win rate is 52%, Mensik's is 57%.
• In their recent hard-court matches, tiebreaks occurred in 5 of 9 combined matches.