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Predictions graded

Titouan Droguet #119France2Jaime Faria #79Portugal0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Thu 6 Aug 2026, 00:15 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions4–357%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJaime Faria · 40 places

Titouan Droguet

France

Droguet reached a career-high No. 107 on 25 May 2026 and is currently No. 119. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #119
Peak ranking: #107 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Jaime Faria

Portugal

Structured match data lists Faria at No. 79, right-handed, and 188 cm. No additional reliable profile details were established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Droguet's superior hard-court form and return stats make him the likely winner, but both players' tendency for three-set marathons points to value in over 2.5 sets at 4.00.

Avoid backing Droguet at short odds or in straight sets, as recent matches suggest a tight, extended contest.

Context

Droguet beat Luca Van Assche (rank 49) and Dalibor Svrcina (rank 111) on hard courts in his last two matches.
- Faria lost to Christopher O'Connell (rank 133) in his only recent hard-court match.
- Droguet won 51.7% of games on hard courts vs Faria's 41.9%.
Droguet's two hard-court wins were both three-setters (vs Van Assche and Svrcina).
- Faria's only hard-court match was a three-set loss to O'Connell.
- Droguet has a career deciding-set win rate of 59%, indicating frequent three-set matches.
Faria's hard-court return points won: 29.9% (1 match tracked).
- Droguet's hard-court return points won: 38.3% (2 matches tracked).
- Faria converted only 1 of 7 break points (14.3%) in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Droguet's superior recent hard-court form (2-0 vs 0-1) and better return stats give him a moderate edge on this surface.
- Droguet is 2-0 on hard courts in the last 15 matches, winning 66.7% of sets and 51.7% of games.
- Faria is 0-1 on hard courts in the last 15, with only 33.3% sets won and 41.9% games won.
- Droguet's overall last-15 record is 10-5 (66.7%) vs Faria's 9-6 (60%).
- Droguet has a higher return points won (38.3%) than Faria (34.9%) in the last 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTitouan DroguetEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have been lengthy, and their overall form suggests a close contest likely to exceed 22.5 games.
- Droguet's two recent hard-court matches averaged 30.5 games (15-16 and 16-13).
- Faria's only recent hard-court match had 31 games (13-18).
- Both players have average match durations over 100 minutes in the last 15, indicating competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tight first sets are common for both on hard courts, with tiebreaks or 6-4 scores likely, pushing the total over 9.5.
- Droguet's last two hard-court first sets: 6-4 and 4-6 (10 games each).
- Faria's last hard-court first set: 7-6 (13 games).
- Both players have first-serve points won around 70% in recent hard-court matches, limiting breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While recent hard-court second sets have been shorter, the overall competitiveness suggests a decent chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Droguet's recent hard-court second sets: 2-6 and 6-3 (8 and 9 games).
- Faria's recent hard-court second set: 6-2 (8 games).
- Overall, both players have competitive second sets in their last 15 matches, with many going to 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Droguet's strong start on hard courts and high career first-set conversion rate suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Droguet won the first set in both of his recent hard-court matches.
- Faria lost the first set in his only recent hard-court match (6-7).
- Droguet's first-set win conversion rate over his career is 87%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTitouan DroguetEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.00
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have gone the distance, and their overall profiles suggest a close match likely to need a decider.
- Droguet's last two hard-court matches both went to three sets.
- Faria's only recent hard-court match went to three sets.
- Droguet has a 59% deciding set win rate in his career, indicating frequent three-setters.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Faria's high double fault rate, combined with Droguet's moderate numbers, makes over 7.5 double faults likely, especially if the match goes three sets.
- Droguet averages 4.0 double faults per match on hard courts in the last 15.
- Faria averages 7.0 double faults per match on hard courts in the last 15 (one match).
- Faria's overall last-15 double fault average is 5.1 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace counts from both players, especially with Faria's high ace rate, make over 12.5 aces plausible in a three-set match.
- Droguet averages 8.5 aces per match on hard courts in the last 15.
- Faria averages 8.0 aces per match on hard courts in the last 15 (only one match).
- Faria's overall last-15 ace average is 10.3 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court matches for both players featured tiebreaks, and their serving stats suggest tight sets are possible.
- Droguet played a tiebreak in his last hard-court match (7-6 in the third).
- Faria played a tiebreak in his last hard-court match (6-7 in the first).
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 52-53% in their careers.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Faria's poor hard-court form and Droguet's recent dominance make the underdog price a trap.

Previous match context available

Titouan Droguet

10W 5L

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#49Luca Van Assche 4-6 6-3 6-4#111Dalibor Svrcina

6-0 6-3#96Hugo Gaston

6-0 3-6 6-4#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-1 6-3#63Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-1 1-6 7-5#49Luca Van Assche

3-6 6-2 6-0#32Alexander Blockx

6-1 7-6(2)#123Zsombor Piros

6-3 6-4#78Valentin Royer

6-1 6-3#131Gustavo Heide

6-3 7-6(3)#204Luka Pavlovic

7-6(5) 6-4#359Mathys Erhard

6-2 6-4 6-1#47Adrian Mannarino

7-6(3) 6-1#132Jurij Rodionov

6-3 6-3#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

Jaime Faria

9W 6L

6-7(8) 6-2 6-4#133Christopher O'Connell

2-6 7-5 6-2#22Luciano Darderi

6-2 6-4#173Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-4#70Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-7(1) 6-4 6-2#14Casper Ruud

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#124Stan Wawrinka

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2 6-3#34Zizou Bergs

7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#94Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 6-4#165Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-4#204Luka Pavlovic

6-3 6-3#253Hugo Grenier

6-4 7-5#156Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-4#194Moez Echargui

4-6 6-7(2) 7-6(4) 6-1 6-2#20Frances Tiafoe

7-5 7-6(1) 6-2#41Jan-Lennard Struff

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TDTitouan DroguetDroguet

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Jaime FariaFariaJF

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.4%+1.8pp59.6%

1st Serve Won70.4%+5.6pp76.0%

2nd Serve Won47.0%+6.4pp53.4%

Aces / Match5.0+5.310.3

Double Faults / Match2.52.6 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.3%+3.4pp34.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.3%+9.4pp36.9%

Break Pts Saved58.1%+7.3pp65.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.3%—50.9%

Serve · 2–3

61.4%1st Serve In+1.8pp59.6%

70.4%1st Serve Won+5.6pp76.0%

47.0%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp53.4%

5.0Aces / Match+5.310.3

2.5Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

38.3%Return Pts Won+3.4pp34.9%

Pressure · 1–1

46.3%Break Pts Converted+9.4pp36.9%

58.1%Break Pts Saved+7.3pp65.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.3%Total Pts Won—50.9%

Titouan Droguet #119France2Jaime Faria #79Portugal0

Player Profiles

Titouan Droguet

Jaime Faria

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Titouan Droguet 2-0

Titouan Droguet

Over 2.5

Titouan Droguet

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Jaime Faria @ 7.50

Titouan Droguet 2-0 @ 1.18

Titouan Droguet

Jaime Faria

Stat Battle