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Predictions graded

Marton Fucsovics #84Hungary0Corentin Moutet #57France2

Sets 1-6 · 2-6Tue 4 Aug 2026, 01:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCorentin Moutet · 27 places

Marton Fucsovics

Hungary

Reached a career-high No. 31 on 4 March 2019. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface and notes that he won his first hard-court tour title at Winston-Salem in 2025.

Current ranking: #84
Peak ranking: #31 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Corentin Moutet

France

Reached a career-high No. 30 on 20 April 2026 after recording a personal-best 31 wins in 2025. ATP says he likes all surfaces; he can use one- and two-handed backhands following wrist surgery in 2023.

Current ranking: #57
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: All surfaces
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 01:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Fucsovics's strong hard-court form and serve give him a decisive edge over Moutet, who has lost 12 of his last 15 matches.

Back Fucsovics to win and over 22.5 total games, but avoid Moutet at odds-on due to his surface struggles.

Context

Moutet's last-15 overall record is 3-12 (20% win rate), with only 28.9% of sets won.
- He has lost his last four matches, including a straight-set defeat to Jenson Brooksby on hard court in his most recent outing.
- His last-15 games-won percentage is just 45.6%, indicating consistent difficulty in staying competitive.
In his last five hard-court matches, Fucsovics won 79.7% of first-serve points and averaged 6.8 aces per match.
- He won 60% of those matches (3-2), with a 53.7% games-won rate, showing his serve translates into wins.
- Moutet's only recent hard-court match saw him win just 58.5% of first-serve points and hit zero aces.
Moutet's last-15 hard-court sample is just one match: a 6-4, 6-4 loss to Jenson Brooksby with 40% games won.
- He landed only 55.4% of first serves and committed six double faults in that match, suggesting serve struggles.
- His career hard-court win percentage is 50.7% (73-71), far below his clay-court success, indicating a surface preference issue.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Fucsovics has a clear surface-fit edge on hard courts, with a 60% win rate in his last 5 hard matches compared to Moutet's 0-1 and poor overall form (3-12 last15). Despite Moutet's 2-0 H2H on hard, those wins are from 2022, and Fucsovics's recent hard-court level (wins over Musetti, O'Connell) suggests he should be favored.
- Fucsovics last15 overall record 6-9 (40%), but 3-2 on hard with 60% sets won and 53.7% games won.
- Moutet last15 overall record 3-12 (20%), 0-1 on hard with 40% games won and 0% sets won.
- Career hard-court win%: Fucsovics 167 wins vs Moutet 73 wins; Fucsovics has stronger hard-court pedigree.
- H2H on hard: Moutet leads 2-0, but last meeting was 2022; Fucsovics won most recent overall meeting on clay 2024.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarton FucsovicsEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with high game counts; Moutet's last15 average of 23.9 games and Fucsovics's hard-court average of 21.6 suggest a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Fucsovics last15 hard matches: average 21.6 games per match (58+50/5).
- Moutet last15 overall: average 23.9 games per match (175+209/15), with 8 of 15 matches exceeding 21.5 games.
- H2H: 3 of 4 matches went over 21.5 games, including both hard-court meetings.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players tend to start matches competitively, with first-set game averages above 10 in recent windows, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Fucsovics last15 on hard: first set average 10.2 games (51/5).
- Moutet last15 overall: first set average 10.1 games (152/15).
- H2H: 3 of 4 first sets had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly tighter historically, but recent averages hover near 9.8-9.7, giving a marginal lean to over 9.5.
- Fucsovics last15 on hard: second set average 9.8 games (49/5).
- Moutet last15 overall: second set average 9.7 games (146/15).
- H2H: 2 of 4 second sets had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fucsovics's strong career first-set conversion and better recent hard-court form give him a slight edge in set 1, though Moutet's lefty game could cause early trouble.
- Fucsovics first-set win conversion career: 83%; Moutet: 82%.
- Fucsovics last15 on hard: won first set in 3 of 5 matches (60%).
- Moutet last15 overall: lost first set in 10 of 15 matches (33% first-set win rate).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMarton FucsovicsEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fucsovics's strong ace rate on hard courts (6.8 per match) should drive the total over 7.5, even if Moutet contributes few aces.
- Fucsovics last15 overall: 5.1 aces per match; on hard: 6.8 aces per match.
- Moutet last15 overall: 2.5 aces per match; on hard: 0 aces in 1 match (small sample).
- Combined average on hard: Fucsovics 6.8 + Moutet's career hard aces ~2.5 = 9.3.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fucsovics's high double-fault rate (4.4 per match) and Moutet's occasional struggles give a lean to over 6.5, though confidence is low due to small hard-court sample for Moutet.
- Fucsovics last15 overall: 4.4 double faults per match; on hard: 3.2.
- Moutet last15 overall: 2.7 double faults per match; on hard: 6.0 in 1 match.
- Combined average: 4.4 + 2.7 = 7.1, but hard-court sample for Moutet is tiny.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Moutet's poor recent form and surface disadvantage make the favorite price a trap.

Head-to-Head

2-2 (4 meetings)

L6-2 2-6 6-3Marton Fucsovics#84vCorentin Moutet#57Aug 12, 2024

W4-6 6-4 6-1Marton Fucsovics#84vCorentin Moutet#57Apr 19, 2024

W7-5 6-2Marton Fucsovics#84vCorentin Moutet#57Oct 22, 2022

L6-2 6-2Marton Fucsovics#84vCorentin Moutet#57Jan 12, 2022

4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Marton Fucsovics

6W 9L

7-6(3) 6-2 6-3#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4) 6-3#16Learner Tien

6-3 4-0 ret.#48Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-3#33Brandon Nakashima

6-3 6-4#4Felix Auger Aliassime

3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#71Hubert Hurkacz

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1 6-2#41Matteo Berrettini

6-4 6-3#98Dino Prizmic

4-6 7-6(5) 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-3#30Alejandro Tabilo

7-6(3) 7-5#4Felix Auger Aliassime

7-6(6) 6-3#126Christopher O'Connell

6-3 7-5#22Arthur Fils

7-5 6-1#15Lorenzo Musetti

7-5 6-3#126Christopher O'Connell

Corentin Moutet

3W 12L

6-4 6-4#77Jenson Brooksby

4-6 6-4 7-5 6-4#85Marcos Giron

7-5 6-4#269Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 6-3#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#87Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 6-4#899Nick Kyrgios

6-3 5-7 6-4 3-6 6-3#70Vit Kopriva

6-4 6-4#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#129Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 6-4#61Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-3 6-4#15Lorenzo Musetti

6-4 6-4#34Ignacio Buse

7-5 6-3#13Casper Ruud 6-4 6-1#132Alexandre Muller

4-6 6-3 6-4#91Marco Trungelliti

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MFMarton FucsovicsFucsovics

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Corentin MoutetMoutetCM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In59.6%+3.8pp63.4%

1st Serve Won72.8%+6.7pp66.1%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+0.9pp49.2%

Aces / Match5.1+2.62.5

Double Faults / Match4.41.7 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.7%+3.8pp37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.3%+3.8pp37.1%

Break Pts Saved62.6%+4.3pp58.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won48.7%—48.4%

Serve · 3–2

59.6%1st Serve In+3.8pp63.4%

72.8%1st Serve Won+6.7pp66.1%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp49.2%

5.1Aces / Match+2.62.5

4.4Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

33.7%Return Pts Won+3.8pp37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

33.3%Break Pts Converted+3.8pp37.1%

62.6%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp58.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.7%Total Pts Won—48.4%