Jiri Lehecka #12Czechia22 – 0Vit Kopriva #71Czechia0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15

The read

Lehecka's superior serve and return stats, combined with a fresher physical state after a bye, give him a clear edge over Kopriva, who is coming off a 2h38m match yesterday.

• Lehecka's last15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%) vs Kopriva's 6-9 (40%), with Lehecka facing stronger opposition (avg rank ~55 vs ~85).
• Lehecka holds a 1-0 H2H edge (6-4 6-1 on clay in 2022), dominating return points (59% won) and break points (71% converted).
• Lehecka's serve metrics are superior: 10.3 aces/match vs 4.3, 77% first-serve points won vs 68%, and 55.6% second-serve points won vs 46.7% in last 15.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Lehecka's serve advantage and Kopriva's potential fatigue point to a relatively quick match, likely under 21.5 games.

• Lehecka's last15 matches average 22.2 games, but his wins often come in straight sets (e.g., 6-3 6-2 vs Molcan, 6-4 6-4 vs Munar).
• Kopriva's last15 matches average 25.8 games, but his only hard-court match in that window was a quick 6-4 6-4 win (20 games).
• H2H match was 17 games, and Lehecka's serve dominance (77% first-serve points won) can shorten points and games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Lehecka's dominant wins and Kopriva's one-sided losses support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.

• Lehecka's average game margin in wins: +5.2 games (last 8 wins), with margins like 18-9, 18-10, 13-9.
• Kopriva's average game margin in losses: -4.8 games (last 9 losses), including heavy defeats like 4-12, 5-12.
• H2H margin was +7 games for Lehecka (17-10).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Lehecka's strong serving and high first-set conversion rate should allow him to take the opener against a potentially fatigued Kopriva.

• Lehecka's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, and he won the first set in his only H2H meeting.
• Kopriva's last15 first-serve points won is 68%, while Lehecka's return points won is 32.8%, suggesting Lehecka can pressure early.
• Lehecka's hard-court last15 sample is small (1 match), but his overall serve dominance (10.3 aces/match) translates well to quick starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Lehecka's ability to dominate on serve and Kopriva's recent struggles in tight sets make a straight-sets win the most likely outcome.

• Lehecka won 6 of his last 8 matches in straight sets, including all grass-court wins against lower-ranked opponents.
• Kopriva lost 7 of his last 15 matches in straight sets, and his only hard-court win was a straight-setter.
• Lehecka's break-point save rate (71.1%) and Kopriva's low break-point conversion (42.1%) reduce Kopriva's chances of stealing a set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Lehecka's high ace count alone should push the total over 12.5, with Kopriva contributing a few as well.

• Lehecka averages 10.3 aces per match in last 15, with 13.9 on grass and 11 in his lone hard-court match.
• Kopriva averages 4.3 aces per match, but his hard-court sample (1 match) had only 2 aces.
• Combined, their last15 averages sum to 14.6 aces, and Lehecka's ace rate is consistent across surfaces.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Lehecka's strong serving and Kopriva's lower tiebreak frequency suggest a tiebreak is unlikely.

• Lehecka's last15 tiebreak rate: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33% of matches), but only 1 in his last 5 wins.
• Kopriva's last15 tiebreak rate: 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches (20% of matches).
• Lehecka's serve dominance (77% first-serve points won) reduces the likelihood of tight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Kopriva's double-fault tendency, especially under pressure or fatigue, makes over 5.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.

• Kopriva averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15, with 4.0 in his lone hard-court match.
• Lehecka averages 1.7 double faults per match, but his hard-court sample had 2.0.
• Combined average is 5.2, but Kopriva's high rate (3.5) and potential fatigue could push it over 5.5.