PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Ilya Ivashka #401Belarus2Oscar Weightman #697United Kingdom0

Sets 6-4 · 6-1Mon 3 Aug 2026, 10:20 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlya Ivashka · 296 places

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Career-high No. 40 on 20 June 2022, and the ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. He has returned to No. 401 and reached the Pozoblanco Challenger final in July 2026.

Current ranking: #401
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Oscar Weightman

United Kingdom

A 24-year-old right-hander at 188 cm, listed No. 697 in the current qualifying draw. His recorded career high is No. 610 in July 2022.

Current ranking: #697
Peak ranking: #610 · 2022
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 06:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilya Ivashka's superior hard-court form, efficient serving, and lighter workload give him a clear edge over Oscar Weightman in this Challenger qualifier.

Ivashka is likely to win in straight sets, with value in the Ivashka 2-0 set betting market and over 9.5 games in each set. Weightman's three-set resilience is unlikely to trouble Ivashka, who has dominated lower-ranked opponents on this surface.

Context

Ivashka's last 15 hard-court record: 11-4 (73.3%), with 69.4% sets won and 58.8% games won.
- He wins 76.3% of first-serve points and 42.4% of return points, both well above Weightman's 70.6% and 39.2% on hard courts.
- In his last five matches, Ivashka has four straight-set wins, including a 6-2 6-1 victory in the previous round.
Weightman's Q1 match lasted 1 hour 59 minutes (6-3 3-6 6-1), almost 50 minutes longer than Ivashka's 1 hour 9 minute win.
- Ivashka's efficient win left him fresher for this next-day match on the same courts.
- Weightman has played three-setters in 7 of his last 15 matches, suggesting he often needs more time to close out opponents.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Ivashka's superior recent hard-court form, higher return points won, and ranking edge give him a clear advantage in this Bo3 qualifier.
- Ivashka last 15 hard-court record: 11-4 (73.3%), Weightman: 9-6 (60%)
- Ivashka last 15 hard-court total points won: 54.9% vs Weightman 51.5%
- Ivashka return points won last 15: 42.4% vs Weightman 38.2%
- Ivashka ranking 401 vs Weightman 697, career win% 59.5% vs 52.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance75%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 22 games per match in recent hard-court play, and with competitive sets likely, the total should exceed 21.5.
- Ivashka last 15 hard-court average games per match: 22.0 (330 games/15 matches)
- Weightman last 15 hard-court average games per match: 22.5 (338 games/15 matches)
- Both players have 3-set matches in recent form, increasing total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players holding serve well early, the first set is likely to be tight, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Ivashka last 15 hard-court first-set average games: 9.8 (147 games/15 sets)
- Weightman last 15 hard-court first-set average games: 9.6 (144 games/15 sets)
- Both players have strong first-serve points won, limiting early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The second set is expected to remain competitive given both players' recent game averages, making over 9.5 games probable.
- Ivashka last 15 hard-court second-set average games: 9.5 (142 games/15 sets)
- Weightman last 15 hard-court second-set average games: 9.7 (145 games/15 sets)
- Both players have similar second-set game averages, indicating competitive sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's superior game differential and ability to win comfortably against weaker opposition support a -3.5 game handicap.
- Ivashka last 15 hard-court average game margin: +4.3 (194 won, 136 lost)
- Weightman last 15 hard-court average game margin: +0.5 (178 won, 160 lost)
- Ivashka's dominant wins over lower-ranked opponents in recent form
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonIlya Ivashka -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Ivashka's strong first-serve performance and high first-set win rate suggest he is likely to start fast and take the opener.
- Ivashka first-set win conversion career: 87%, Weightman: 84%
- Ivashka last 15 first-serve points won: 76.3% vs Weightman 69.9%
- Ivashka last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5, Weightman: 3 of 5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging over 10 aces combined in recent matches, the total aces should exceed 10.5.
- Ivashka last 15 aces per match: 4.6, Weightman: 6.1
- Combined average aces per match: 10.7
- Both players have above-average ace rates on hard courts
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just above 6.5, making over 6.5 a marginal but plausible outcome.
- Ivashka last 15 double faults per match: 3.3, Weightman: 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.6
- Both players have similar double fault rates, pushing the total near the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Ivashka's odds imply an 84.7% win probability, but his recent form and Weightman's competitiveness suggest a much closer match.

Previous match context available

Ilya Ivashka

11W 4L

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#153Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#367Tiago Pereira

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#224Dan Added

6-1 6-0#485Aziz Ouakaa

6-2 3-1 ret.#417Maximus Jones

6-4 6-4#615Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-3—Agustin Siancha Borlenghi

3-6 6-3 6-4#559Pablo Martinez Gomez

7-6(5) 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(0) 4-6 6-4#281Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 3-6 6-2#331Hamish Stewart

6-1 6-2#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-1 6-1#724Manish Sureshkumar

Oscar Weightman

9W 6L

6-3 3-6 6-1—Adam Majchrzak

6-2 6-4#266Alastair Gray

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#679Paul Inchauspe

2-6 6-3 6-3#461Sergi Perez Contri

6-4 2-6 6-4#391Edward Winter

6-3 7-5#727Carles Hernandez

6-0 6-1—Darrshan Suresh

3-6 6-3 6-4#165Luca Nardi

6-3 6-4#738Devin Badenhorst

6-2 6-0#811Keshav Chopra

6-1 6-1#1466Dylan Salton

6-3 6-4—Luc Koenig

1-6 7-6(3) 7-6(6)—Carl Roothman

6-3 6-2#170Gauthier Onclin

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#534Sebastian Gima

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IIIlya IvashkaIvashka

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Oscar WeightmanWeightmanOW

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Oscar Weightman's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.0%+0.9pp60.1%

1st Serve Won76.3%+6.4pp69.9%

2nd Serve Won58.1%+7.7pp50.4%

Aces / Match4.6+1.56.1

Double Faults / Match3.3—3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.4%+4.2pp38.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.0%+4.2pp47.2%

Break Pts Saved53.1%+14.8pp67.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.9%+4.2pp50.7%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

61.0%1st Serve In+0.9pp60.1%

76.3%1st Serve Won+6.4pp69.9%

58.1%2nd Serve Won+7.7pp50.4%

4.6Aces / Match+1.56.1

3.3Double Faults / Match—3.3

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won+4.2pp38.2%

Pressure · 0–2

43.0%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp47.2%

53.1%Break Pts Saved+14.8pp67.9%

Points · 1–0

54.9%Total Pts Won+4.2pp50.7%

Ilya Ivashka #401Belarus2Oscar Weightman #697United Kingdom0

Player Profiles

Ilya Ivashka

Oscar Weightman

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilya Ivashka 2-0

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ilya Ivashka @ 1.18

Oscar Weightman 2-1 @ 8.50

Ilya Ivashka

Oscar Weightman

Stat Battle