PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Adam Majchrzak #1981Poland1Oscar Weightman #697United Kingdom2

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 1-6Sun 2 Aug 2026, 14:45 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOscar Weightman · 1284 places

Adam Majchrzak

Poland

ATP's indexed activity lists a career-high ranking of No. 1869 on 2025-07-14 and a recent ranking of No. 1981. He received a wildcard for 2026 Mazovia Open qualifying.

Current ranking: #1981
Peak ranking: #1869 · 2025
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Oscar Weightman

United Kingdom

Structured match data lists Weightman at No. 697, right-handed and 188 cm. The official order of play identifies him as the No. 11 qualifying seed.

Current ranking: #697
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 00:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Oscar Weightman's extensive hard-court pedigree and strong recent form (9-4 on hard) give him a decisive edge over wildcard Adam Majchrzak, who has almost no hard-court experience at this level.

Weightman's superior serve and return metrics should lead to a straight-sets win, with the best betting angle being Weightman 2-0 at odds around 1.36. Avoid backing Majchrzak despite long odds, as the surface mismatch is too significant.

Context

Majchrzak's last15Stats.bySurface.Hard shows a 0-1 record with only 1 match tracked, winning just 40.9% of games.
- His last 14 matches were all on clay, where he won 64.3% of matches and 57.2% of games.
- Career hard-court record is 1 win vs. 82 for Weightman, highlighting a massive surface experience gap.
Weightman's last15Stats.bySurface.Hard record is 9-4 (69.2%) with 13 matches tracked.
- He wins 54.9% of games on hard, saves 69.2% of break points, and wins 40.2% of return points.
- In his last 5 hard-court matches, he went 4-1, including wins over ranked opponents like Sergi Perez Contri (No. 461).
On clay (14 matches), Majchrzak wins 74.7% of first-serve points; on hard (1 match), that drops to 63.6%.
- Return points won on hard is just 29.3%, compared to 42.1% on clay.
- He saved 0% of break points in his lone hard-court match (0/4).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Oscar Weightman

1.12fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Weightman's extensive hard-court pedigree and strong recent hard-court form (9-4 in last 15) give him a clear surface-fit edge over Majchrzak, who has almost no hard-court experience at this level.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Oscar Weightman

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Weightman's superior hard-court return game (40.2% return points won) should pressure Majchrzak's serve early, giving Weightman an edge in the opening set.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Oscar Weightman 2-0

1.36fair 1.28

BetBugs 42% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Weightman's dominant hard-court form (9-4 in last 13) and Majchrzak's lack of hard-court experience (0-1 in last 15) make a straight-set win highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Weightman's extensive hard-court pedigree and strong recent hard-court form (9-4 in last 15) give him a clear surface-fit edge over Majchrzak, who has almost no hard-court experience at this level.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall record on hard is 9-4 (69.2%) with 13 matches tracked, showing strong recent hard-court form.
- Majchrzak's last15Stats.bySurface.Hard record is 0-1 (0%) with only 1 match tracked, indicating minimal recent hard-court evidence.
- Weightman holds a career hard-court win percentage of 82-? (82 wins) vs Majchrzak's 1-? (1 win), a massive surface-fit edge.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall break point save rate is 66.3% vs Majchrzak's 43.6%, suggesting better clutch serving.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOscar WeightmanEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing competitive recent form and Weightman's high break point save rate, the match is likely to feature tight sets, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall average games per match is 22.1 (332 games / 15 matches).
- Majchrzak's last15Stats.overall average games per match is 20.8 (312 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games-won percentages (Weightman 53%, Majchrzak 56.1%), suggesting competitive sets.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall break point save rate (66.3%) and Majchrzak's break point convert rate (47.5%) indicate rallies may extend games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 9 games per set in recent matches, and with Weightman's strong serve and Majchrzak's decent return on clay (though unproven on hard), the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall average games per set is 9.2 (332 games / 36 sets).
- Majchrzak's last15Stats.overall average games per set is 9.2 (312 games / 34 sets).
- Weightman's hard-court matches in last 15 averaged 9.2 games per set (286 games / 31 sets).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Weightman's superior hard-court return game (40.2% return points won on hard in last 15) should pressure Majchrzak's serve early, giving Weightman an edge in the opening set.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall first serve points won is 69.7% vs Majchrzak's 73.8%, but Weightman's hard-court sample is larger and more relevant.
- Majchrzak's last15Stats.bySurface.Hard first serve points won is 63.6% (1 match), significantly lower than his clay numbers.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall return points won on hard is 40.2% (13 matches) vs Majchrzak's 29.3% (1 match).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOscar WeightmanEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Weightman's consistent ace output (5.2 per match) combined with Majchrzak's moderate ace count (3.5) pushes the combined total over 8.5, especially on a hard court that favors serving.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall aces per match is 5.2, with 5.1 on hard (13 matches).
- Majchrzak's last15Stats.overall aces per match is 3.5, but his hard-court sample (1 match) had 3 aces.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.2 + 3.5 = 8.7, slightly above the 8.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match, and with Majchrzak's slightly higher rate (3.7), the total is likely to just exceed 6.5 in a competitive match.
- Majchrzak's last15Stats.overall double faults per match is 3.7.
- Weightman's last15Stats.overall double faults per match is 3.0.
- Combined average double faults: 3.7 + 3.0 = 6.7, just above the 6.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Majchrzak's lack of hard-court experience and poor recent hard-court stats make the long odds misleadingly attractive.

Adam Majchrzak

9W 6L

7-6(4) 6-2#414Oleg Prihodko

6-3 4-6 6-3—Radovan Michalik

4-6 6-1 6-3#591Karol Filar

6-2 6-2—Jakub Januchowski

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2—Kacper Knitter

6-2 6-1—Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#685Gabriele Bosio

6-4 6-0—Radimir Lutkovskii

6-0 6-3—Vano Losaberidze

6-4 6-2#810Grigory Shebekin

6-0 6-2—Mikayel Avanesyan

7-6(4) 6-1—Aleksander Konstantin

7-6(2) 6-3#504Fabrizio Andaloro

7-6(4) 6-3#484Rudolf Molleker

6-1 6-0—Maximilian Todorov

Oscar Weightman

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#266Alastair Gray

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#679Paul Inchauspe

2-6 6-3 6-3#461Sergi Perez Contri

6-4 2-6 6-4#391Edward Winter

6-3 7-5#727Carles Hernandez

6-0 6-1—Darrshan Suresh

3-6 6-3 6-4#165Luca Nardi

6-3 6-4#738Devin Badenhorst

6-2 6-0#811Keshav Chopra

6-1 6-1#1466Dylan Salton

6-3 6-4—Luc Koenig

1-6 7-6(3) 7-6(6)—Carl Roothman

6-3 6-2#170Gauthier Onclin

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#534Sebastian Gima

7-5 6-1#839Skander Mansouri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAdam MajchrzakMajchrzak

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Oscar WeightmanWeightmanOW

Oscar Weightman carries the stronger recent form — Adam Majchrzak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In58.7%+2.1pp60.8%

1st Serve Won73.8%+4.1pp69.7%

2nd Serve Won49.1%+1.4pp50.5%

Aces / Match3.5+1.75.2

Double Faults / Match3.70.7 fewer3.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.3%+2.3pp39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.5%+3.1pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved43.6%+22.7pp66.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+1.2pp50.9%

Serve · 1–4

58.7%1st Serve In+2.1pp60.8%

73.8%1st Serve Won+4.1pp69.7%

49.1%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp50.5%

3.5Aces / Match+1.75.2

3.7Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.0

Return · 1–0

41.3%Return Pts Won+2.3pp39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

47.5%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp44.4%

43.6%Break Pts Saved+22.7pp66.3%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.9%