Norbert Gombos #423Slovakia00 – 2Gonzalo Bueno #160Peru2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Gombos has superior recent form (11-4 vs 8-7) and better underlying clay stats in the last 15 matches, outweighing Bueno's H2H win from a year ago.

• Gombos last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Bueno 8-7 (53.3%)
• Gombos last15 clay total points won 52.5% vs Bueno 49.3%
• Gombos last15 clay break point conversion 46.3% vs Bueno 35.5%
• H2H Bueno won 6-4 6-0 on clay in 2025, but Gombos current form is stronger

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have competitive recent matches with many games, and their break point save rates suggest extended sets, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Gombos last15 clay average games per match 21.0 (295 games/15 matches)
• Bueno last15 clay average games per match 21.4 (300 games/14 matches)
• Both players have high break point save rates (Gombos 65.3%, Bueno 56.1%)
• Bueno's last 5 matches: 22, 24, 23, 18, 29 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Strong serving and decent return stats from both suggest a tight first set with at least 10 games.

• Gombos last15 clay first serve points won 72.9%
• Bueno last15 clay first serve points won 62.7%
• Bueno last15 clay return points won 40.8%
• Both players have break point save rates above 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second-set dynamics often mirror the first, and with both players saving break points well, another over 9.5 games is probable.

• Gombos last15 clay second serve points won 51.5%
• Bueno last15 clay second serve points won 50.8%
• Both players have similar second-serve vulnerability, but break point save rates are solid

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Gombos' strong first-serve performance (72.9% points won) and recent set-winning momentum give him a slight edge in set 1.

• Gombos last15 first set win rate implied by 73.3% match wins and 63.6% sets won
• Bueno last15 clay first serve points won 62.7% vs Gombos 72.9%
• Gombos has won first set in 4 of last 5 matches