Jamie MackenzieGermany22 – 1Max Dahlin #883Sweden1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Mackenzie's slightly better clay record, higher break point save rate, and fresher physical condition from a shorter quarterfinal give him a narrow edge in this Bo3 semifinal.

• Mackenzie's last15 clay record is 8-4 (66.7%) with 54.6% games won; Dahlin's is 7-4 (63.6%) with 52.4% games won.
• Mackenzie's last15 clay return points won is 40.8% vs Dahlin's 41.0%, nearly identical.
• Mackenzie's last15 clay break point save rate is 61.5% vs Dahlin's 53.7%, giving Mackenzie a slight edge in holding serve under pressure.
• Intel notes Dahlin played back-to-back three-setters (4h34 total) while Mackenzie had a straight-set win (1h46), suggesting a fatigue advantage for Mackenzie.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 22 games per clay match in recent form, with frequent three-setters, making Over 21.5 games likely in this evenly matched semifinal.

• Mackenzie's last15 clay matches average 22.3 games per match (161 games in 12 matches).
• Dahlin's last15 clay matches average 22.0 games per match (161 games in 11 matches).
• Both players have a high rate of three-setters: Mackenzie 5 of 12 clay matches, Dahlin 5 of 11 clay matches.
• Intel highlights Dahlin's recent three-setters and Mackenzie's competitive wins, suggesting a close match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players averaging over 9.5 games in set 1 on clay recently, and no dominant server, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.

• Mackenzie's last15 clay set 1 games average 9.8 (based on 12 matches, 118 games in set 1).
• Dahlin's last15 clay set 1 games average 9.5 (based on 11 matches, 105 games in set 1).
• Both players have strong first set win conversion rates, indicating tight opening sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Mackenzie's ability to pressure Dahlin's low first serve percentage early, combined with his own solid first set conversion rate, gives him a slight edge in set 1.

• Mackenzie's career first set win conversion is 76%, Dahlin's is 81%, both strong.
• Mackenzie's last15 clay first serve points won is 70.4%, Dahlin's is 73.7%, but Dahlin's first serve in is only 51.7%.
• Mackenzie's last15 clay return points won is 40.8%, which could exploit Dahlin's low first serve percentage.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players averaging under 5 aces per match on clay and low first serve percentages, the total aces are likely to stay under 9.5.

• Mackenzie's last15 clay aces per match is 4.3, Dahlin's is 4.9.
• Combined average aces per match on clay: 9.2 (4.3 + 4.9).
• Both players have low first serve percentages (Mackenzie 56.1%, Dahlin 51.7%), reducing ace potential.